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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Effectiveness of an Educational Program For Early Intervention depending on Illustrative Pictures to Acquire some concepts For Children with Hearing impairment
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“Child of today is a man of the future" this slogan is one of the most popular logos of international organizations and institutions that dealing with human beings needs in general and children needs in particular, whether these needs are educational, health, social, or economic. Children require special care and extra legal protection, since the child-raising is not the Child’s own issue, but it's the issue of the society in which he/she would integrate.

As the education and language skillsacquisition primarily associated with hearing, because human being receives most of the skills and knowledge through the hearing; that imitate sounds and learn how to speak isacquired only by hearing, so therefore the hearing - impairedchi

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 30 2013
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
 المسائل المتعلقة بالأسماء الثابتة لله (عزوجل) الواردة في (مرعاة المفاتيح شرح مشكاة المصابيح، لأبي الحسن المباركفوري (ت1414هـ).
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The research deals with the issues related to the fixed names of God U, which are from a set of issues mentioned in the Book of Observations of the Keys Explaining the Mishkat al-Masbah by Abu Al-Hasan Al-Mubarakfory (d. 141 AH). It included five demands: the first of them is in proving and identifying the most beautiful names and divisions of God, and the second in the name, name and name. And the third: It was in their number, while the fourth: in deriving the names, is it suspensive or not? And Fifth: The Compilation of Allah’s Most Beautiful Names.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
دراسة العلاقة بین وجبة الأفطار والمستوى الاقتصادي وعدد إفراد الأسرة وتأثیرھا في القابلیات الذھنیة لطلبة المرحلة الابتدائیة
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Five mixed primary schools from the district of Tikrit/ Salah al- din province
with a total of 100 male and female pupils and two ages(8-9 and 10-11 years),
were selected randomly to study the relationship between the breakfast meal and
the academic level, the socioeconomic situation, and the number of family
members. The study showed a positive linear correlation between the morning
meal, and academic level of students for both two covered ages, also showed a
clear impact between the development of family's socioeconomic situation and
their nutrition level. There were an increase in the percentage of pupils aged 8-9
years with a poor nutrition when they were belonged to a poor or medium
socioeconomic families,

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building discriminant function for repeated measurements data under compound symmetry (CS) covariance structure and applied in the health field
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Discriminant analysis is a technique used to distinguish and classification an individual to a group among a number of  groups based on a linear combination of a set of relevant variables know discriminant function. In this research  discriminant analysis used to analysis data from repeated measurements design. We  will  deal  with the problem of  discrimination  and  classification in the case of  two  groups by assuming the Compound Symmetry covariance structure  under  the  assumption  of  normality for  univariate  repeated measures data.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 07 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The agenda of the French news agency AFP in dealing with the press image of the peaceful resistance The Great Return Marches as a model "an analytical study" “A analytical study”
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The study aimed to identify the treatment of the press image of the Great Return Marches in the French international news agency AFP by knowing the most important issues, their direction and the degree of interest in them. The study belongs to the descriptive research, and used the survey method, within the context of the content analysis method, and the researcher relied on the content analysis form tool and the interview tool to collect data. The study population is represented in the photos published by the French News Agency about the Great Return Marches during the period (end of March / 2018 until the end of November / 2019. The researcher chose an intentional sample using the Complete Census method. The study material represented

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Publication Date
Thu May 14 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Property ownership and its implications for urban development The Case study (the development project of the Rashid camp for housing in Baghdad)
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        Of the importance of the concept of ownership of real estate as the basic basis from which various projects are launched in various economic, tourism, and urban areas .... The need to research the diagnosis of real estate reality went astray in the difficulties, which played a decisive role in the process of urban development.

 

 This leads us to the research problem of the difficulty of implementing urban development plans in many cases due to the absence of a clear methodology for organizing and modernizing the ownership of real estate and its coordination with the management of urban land and to achieve the objective

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The social responsibility to the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of the environment protection / field research to a sample of students of the University of Baghdad
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        This paper deals with social responsibility visible to the media and the role they play in spreading the culture of environmental protection, and make research on a sample of the University of Baghdad consisting students from 150 students, male and female were distributed questionnaire form on the sample to obtain the required information has been questionnaire included axes distributed questions achieve the objectives of the search, and after the form data were analyzed using statistical program spss results show that the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of environmental protection form averages arithmetic high, indicating a rise in the influence of th

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 12 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
رسالة رسالة في طبقات القراء لتاج الدين أحمد عبد القادر بن مكتوم القيسي (ت 749هـ) دراسة وتحقيق
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 The writer of this messagewas Tajaddin Ahmad Abdulqader bin Maktoom Al-Qaisy Al-masry.

This message dealt with the biographies of twenty scientists of readers about Quran readings in Cairo . He comprehended these biographies and make it an appendage

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The contractual budget: the ideal technique in planning and implementing capital budgeting projects: a strategy of preparing the contractual budget for Baghdad local government
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Public budget is the government's tool in achieving the objectives of economic and social development is the accounting curriculum to estimate state revenues and expenditures for years to come, as well as to have legal status as it is after the adoption of an official statement of government units to spend funds on items planned at the same time is a statement collect resources to finance these appropriations, if the primary objective of the budget initially limited to the achievement of financial and legislative control have evolved this function in the area of public administration turned attention from mere imposition of control over the money, which provides information to assist the Department to utilize available resources and prog

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Immunohistochemical Expression of P16 Protein and TGF β1 in Mice Liver Exposed to Fumonisin B1
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Fumonisin B1 (FB1) is a mycotoxin produced in some grains (mainly corn) by Fusarium species. Due to a structural similarity between FB1 and sphinganine, sphingolipids metabolism is inhibited. Such inhibition plays a critical role in cell to cell singling and structure of lipoprotein; therefore FB1 has been suggested to have a relationship with human and animal cancer. This research is planned to study the effect of FB1 on male mice at two doses (20 and 30 µg/ ml) on the expression of TGF-β1 and p16 in liver cells. Three groups of Swiss albino male mice; each group was orally administrated with FB1 toxin as the following: normal saline (control group); 20 and 30 µg/ ml. All groups were sacrificed after two weeks of oral manage

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