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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 28 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Ethics-Breaking Crimes: A Social Field Study in Baghdad City: حنين حسن عبد الله, و عدنان ياسين مصطفى
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Crime has become a phenomenon associated with human socialization.  Wherever human groups are found, a crime, which differs from one society to another, is found. It is one of the most dangerous social issues that undermines the solidarity of a given society. This is because it establishes a takeoff from community's norms, values, customs and traditions, and thus turns into a danger to the lives of people, groups and society that threatens its strength and security. The paper focuses on the crimes that violate the social law, like child rape, incest and electronic extortion, which are increasing in size, increasing as a result their repercussions on the human society. The study seeks several objectives, including: examining the natu

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 07 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Problemic of the ambiguous relationship between the media and terrorism, and the problems arising from… An exploratory study of a sample of journalists, writers and researchers in Baghdad
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This study examined the problematic of the ambiguous relationship between the media and terrorism and the problems that result from press coverage of terroristic incidents. The paper sought to show the classification and confrontation of such incidents had been established from the point of view of a sample of media professionals, researchers and writers who are frequenters of Al-Mutanabi Street in Baghdad. The media outlets that carry this coverage would not give up their media mission as well as the terrorists would not be given an opportunity to take advantage of this coverage in achieving their goals and objectives. Furthermore, the terrorist organizations would have no chance to exploit these means to deliver their terroristic messa

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Modern Sport
اثر تمرينات خاصة بأستخدام جهاز المدافع الضوئي المصمم في تنمية بعض القدرات البدنية والاداء المهاري المركب لدى لاعبي كرة اليد
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اتجهت دول العالم الى تسخير جميع الإمكانيات والخبرات والعلوم من اجل الوصول الى مستويات متقدمة في الرياضات المختلفة ويهدف التدريب الرياضي إلى إعداد اللاعبين إعدادا جيدا تكمن مشكلة البحث من خلال خبرة الباحثتان الميدانية ومتابعة تدريبات لاعبي المدرسة التخصصية كرة اليد فقد لوحظ هناك ضعف واضح في الأداء المهاري ولابد من تطوير أوجه الضعف لتحقيق مستوى انجاز افضل . ويهدف البحث اعداد تمرينات خاصة بأستخدام جهاز ا

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 23 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of the (PEOE) Model in Teaching Science to Develop the Skills of Generating and Evaluating Information and the Scientific Sense among Intermediate First Grade Students
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The research aimed mainly to discover the effectiveness of the (PEOE) model in teaching science to develop the skills of generating and evaluating information and the emotional side of the scientific sense of the intermediate first grade students. An experimental approach with a quasi-experimental design called pre-test and post-test control design was used. The research sample consisted of (60) students, who were selected in a random cluster method, (30) students in the experimental group studied the unit "The Nature of Material" using the (PEOE) model, and (30) students in the control group studied according to the prevailing method of teaching. The research materials and tools were represented in: a teacher's guide for teaching the un

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 16 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of a Selective Counseling Program in Modifying the Irrational Thoughts That Cause Anger in a Sample of Female Teachers in Different Educational Stages
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The research seeks to identify the effectiveness of a selective program in modifying irrational thinking that causes anger among an important class of societies in general. namely teachers. Specifically female teachers because of the pressures they suffer because of the nature of this profession. It may develop into anger outburst, which may cause irrational thinking arose as a result of the different situations they are going through. The sample of the program consisted of (12) teachers in Egypt, from different educational sectors. The researcher intended to clarify the emotion of anger and the irrational thoughts associated with it and the contribution of the selective counseling program in modifying those irrational thinking. This was

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
( the effect of Cognitive Acceleration strategy and random excitement strategy in achievement of geography material and developing the reflective thinking for students of literary fifth class)
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The research aims to find out the effect of Cognitive Acceleration strategy and random excitement strategy in achievement of geography material and developing the reflective thinking for students of literary fifth class . 

  the researcher depended a partial control experimental design with the three groups(the competence groups of the pre & post tests), The sample is deliberately selected  from first AL-Rusafah Directorate General of Education in Baghdad.  AL.fardoos Interme

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Digital Communication: The Future of Identity in Arab TV Drama: A Field Study on a Sample of Arab Society in the UAE in 2017
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The digital communication of a product of communication and information revolution. It is characterized by accurate and comprehensive in its services and its effects, which brought changes in the structure of many communities and their organizational structures. They have significant impacts on the social systems and social relations, especially in the Arab societies, which are the focus of the globalized Western media, for many reasons: economical, political , cultural and social.
According to this perception, the Arab identity has become in an encounter with big challenges by the globalized media of trade and the media, which aims to achieve greater profits because of identity and its importance to the communities. This occurs par

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Instructional Design According to the Active Learning Model and Its Effect on Students' Achievement in Chemistry for Fifth Intermediate Stage
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The objective of the research is to identify the effect of an instructional design according to the active learning modelsالباحثين in the achievement of the students of the fifth grade, the instructional design was constructed according to the active learning models for the design of education. The research experience was applied for a full academic year (the first & the second term of 2017-2018). The sample consisted of 58 students, 28 students for the experimental group and 30 students for the control group. The experimental design was adopted with partial and post-test, the final achievement test consisted of (50) objectives and essays items on two terms, the validity of the test was verified by the adoption of the Kudoric

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
An Assessment of People with Intellectual Disabilities Practicing of Physical Activities and Its Challenges under Corona Pandemic (Covid-19) from Their Families' Point of View
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Abstract

This research aims to assess the practice of physical activities by people with intellectual disabilities and its challenges during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic from their families' point of view. The research sample consisted of (87) individuals from families with intellectual disabilities in the Makkah region. The sample was selected by the simple random method where the researcher used the descriptive analytical approach. A questionnaire of (32) items was used as the research tool to collect data. The findings of the study showed that the assessment level of practicing physical activities by people with intellectual disabilities was low. The public facilities dimension ranked first with a moder

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
A Comparison Between Recursive Least-Squares (RLS) and Extended Recursive Least-Squares (E-RLS) for Tracking Multiple Fast Time Variation Rayleigh Fading Channel
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In order to select the optimal tracking of fast time variation of multipath fast time variation Rayleigh fading channel, this paper focuses on the recursive least-squares (RLS) and Extended recursive least-squares (E-RLS) algorithms and reaches the conclusion that E-RLS is more feasible according to the comparison output of the simulation program from tracking performance and mean square error over five fast time variation of Rayleigh fading channels and more than one time (send/receive) reach to 100 times to make sure from efficiency of these algorithms.

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