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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 25 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Educational -Learning Design in the Achievement and Motivation of Students in the High School towards Art Education: كنعان غضبان حبيب
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  The present study aimed at ((building an educational -learning design based on the theory of Merrill in (CDT) and measuring the effectiveness of this design in the motivation and achievement of the high school fifth grade students to art education in the subject of the history of modern art)). The research community is made of fifth grade preparatory students in the secondary school of Umm Ayman in the Directorate of Education of Baghdad / Ar-Rusafa in a simple random way. The study sample (58 students) was chosen from section (e) to study according to Merrill theory (CDT) and section (d) to study according to the traditional way.
The pilot design of the control and experimental equivalent groups that have partial control in t

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Women's Self-care Instructions concerning Wound, Perineal & Urinary System Care post cesarean section in Baghdad teaching hospital
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Aim: to determine the effectiveness of women's self-care instructions on their post cesarean section care in Baghdad
teaching hospital.
Methodology: The present study used quasi-experimental study design in maternity words in Baghdad teaching
hospital. The sample was collected and follow up for the period (15) January 2014 until 15 May 2014 Nonprobability
(purposive sample) of (100) women post cesarean section divided in to two groups (50) women post
cesarean section considered as a study group, and another (50) women post cesarean section considered as the
control one, A questionnaire designed as a tool to collect data fit the purpose of the study a questionnaire include
demographic variables, Reproductive variables

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 30 2013
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
 المسائل المتعلقة بالأسماء الثابتة لله (عزوجل) الواردة في (مرعاة المفاتيح شرح مشكاة المصابيح، لأبي الحسن المباركفوري (ت1414هـ).
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The research deals with the issues related to the fixed names of God U, which are from a set of issues mentioned in the Book of Observations of the Keys Explaining the Mishkat al-Masbah by Abu Al-Hasan Al-Mubarakfory (d. 141 AH). It included five demands: the first of them is in proving and identifying the most beautiful names and divisions of God, and the second in the name, name and name. And the third: It was in their number, while the fourth: in deriving the names, is it suspensive or not? And Fifth: The Compilation of Allah’s Most Beautiful Names.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of knowledge management processes in Creative marketing
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The research aims to measure the impact of knowledge management processes individually and in total in the innovative marketing.

We depart search of a problem expressed in a number of intellectual and practical questions, the application of this research in the General Company for Vegetable Oil Industry, represented composed a sample of (63) (Director General and Deputy Director General and Director of the Department and the Division) in the company researched, it has been designed measuring instrument to collect the necessary data either statistical means they are the percentage and the arithmetic mean and standard deviation and coefficient of variation and the coefficient of simple correlation and model

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Apr 03 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Applying Social Stories in Developing Social Interaction Skills among Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the effectiveness of social stories in increasing social interaction among children with an autism spectrum disorder. The researcher used the single-subject design methodology (Single Subject Designs, SSD) with

 (A-B) design to answer the research questions. The study sample consisted of (3) children with autism spectrum disorder enrolled in a transit daycare center in the Asir region, Saudi Arabia. The results of the study showed that there is a positive functional relationship between social stories and play to increase social interaction among children with autism spectrum disorder, which contributed to the acquisition and generalization of this behav

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Effect of Teaching Competencies in Enhancing Self-Confidence among Students of Department of Art Education during Application: كنعان غضبان حبيب
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The results of previous scientific studies showed that knowledge is something and application is something else, that's why teachers' preparation programs focused, in the present time, on special standards for knowledge and performance, i.e., who has knowledge is not necessary able to apply it in his life or in his field of work, which led to the existence of a gap between knowledge and application. Based on that, those interested in (teachers' preparation) reconsidered their work evaluation, thus the concept of competency appeared at the end of the sixties of the past century to address the negative in teachers' preparation.
The following contains a number of competency features in teachers' preparation programs:
Teachers' effec

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison of Parameters Estimation Methods for the Negative Binomial Regression Model under Multicollinearity Problem by Using Simulation
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This study discussed a biased estimator of the Negative Binomial Regression model known as (Liu Estimator), This estimate was used to reduce variance and overcome the problem Multicollinearity between explanatory variables, Some estimates were used such as Ridge Regression and Maximum Likelihood Estimators, This research aims at the theoretical comparisons between the new estimator (Liu Estimator) and the estimators

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Performance evaluation of small and medium-sized enterprises according to the entrance of the scorecard applied study in company Al fadly for construction industries
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The research Aim is to provide support to small enterprises by providing tools that enable measurement and test their performance and identifying weaknesses and work on them is determined by the problem of searching using traditional assessment methods for small projects with only financial performance measurement standards that do not provide a complete picture of the performance of these projects so use the balanced scorecard the four pillars (financial, customer, learning and growth, and internal processes) and identify deviations and work on them through the use of the outputs of the programme (probe), PROmoting Business Excellence-PROBE), which It is a model of performance evaluation, with which you can deve

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Performance Appraisal and its impact on behavioral and Attitudinal work outcomes Analytical research of the views of a sample of teaching staff at Colleges of the University of Fallujah
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The current research aims to know the extent of the impact of performance evaluation in its dimensions as an explanatory variable in the behavioural and attitudinal work outputs with its dimensions as a response variable in order to reach appropriate solutions through which the University of Fallujah seeks to achieve its goal in the process of diagnosing the axes of strength and to benefit from them in the process of strengthening the status and sobriety of the academic position of the professor and the researcher relied on The descriptive and analytical approach in carrying out this study, and data was collected from university professors, including leaders, heads of departments and divisions, who numbered (97) teachers. And fie

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The Economic Role of Sultan Al-Nasir Muhammad Ibn Qalawun in Egypt and the Levant Documentary Study through Writings and Inscriptions
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The people lived under Mamluk rule, distress, poverty, famines, oppression of princes, rulers, And their domination and he always wished for a just ruler to relieve his misery, and remove the injustice

from him, so they found in Al-Nasser Mohammed tend to establish justice.

When Al-Nasser ascended the throne of the Sultanate, there was a rise or fall in prices, so he pursued Prices will end and punish those

who come out for it. And you talk about this search for a relationship

Sultan Al-Nasser with the poor classes in society and his keenness to pursue their affairs was compassionate On them, mer

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