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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate size sub-population by Killworth method
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The aim of the thesis is to estimate the partial and inaccessible population groups, which is a field study to estimate the number of drug’s users in the Baghdad governorate for males who are (15-60) years old.

Because of the absence of data approved by government institutions, as well as the difficulty of estimating the numbers of these people from the traditional survey, in which the respondent expresses himself or his family members in some cases. In these challenges, the NSUM Network Scale-Up Method Is mainly based on asking respondents about the number of people they know in their network of drug addicts.

Based on this principle, a statistical questionnaire was designed to

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In vivo evaluation the efficiency of nitazoxanide with cationic Gemini surfactant on Cryptosporidiosis
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Infection with cryptosporidiosis endangers the lives of many people with immunodeficiency, especially HIV patients. Nitazoxanide is one of the main therapeutic drugs used to treat cryptosporidiosis. However, it is poorly soluble in water, which restricts its usefulness and efficacy in immunocompromised patients. Surfactants have an amphiphilic character which indicates their ability to improve the water solubility of the hydrophobic drugs. Our research concerns the synthesis of new cationic Gemini surfactants that have the ability to improve the solubility of the drug Nanazoxide. So, we synthesized cationic Gemini surfactants. N1,N1,N3,N3-tetramethyl-N1,N3-bis(2-octadecanamidoethyl)propane-1,3-diaminium bromide (CGSPS18) and 2,2‘-(etha

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Attitudes of University Students about the Statements of Iraqi Political Elites: A Survey Study of a Sample of University Youth in Baghdad
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Various visual media are becoming an increasingly important and active instrument of communication. This fact has led some political parties and leading personalities in Iraq to make use of them as an accepted forum for the discussion of public affairs usually in a manner that conforms to their declared policy. They have to draw as much popular support as they could for the causes which they fight for. As a result, a state of great confusion has been created from the contradictory statements made by the contending parties and gave left grave consequences on all types of the audience receiving them. The problem of the study can be summarized in one major question: What is the opinions of the audience as regards the statements made by the

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The effect of the strategy of asking clustered questions on the acquisition and retention of the general Arabic language subject among students of the College of Languages
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An experiment in the semester, the second semester of the academic year (2022-2023), and the data used was not processed (the second test for two independent, inaccurate samples, the Bermon correlation coefficient, and the Spearman correlation coefficient), and the following results were reached: There is a statistically significant difference at the level of ( 0) average, 05) between the third grade who studied the plan for asking cluster questions, and between the average of those who studied the special feature according to the traditional method of selecting achievement, and enjoyed completing the specialization, choosing the experimental group, because the strategy of asking cluster questions is one of the externalities that... Lear

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 22 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الاسطوغرفيا العثمانية التركية حول ثيمة محمية الجزائر في الفترة العثمانية ما بين - الموضوعية العلمية والذاتية المؤدلجة
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تضمّنت الاسطوغرافيا العثمانية التركية حول ثيمة محمية الج ا زئر في -
الفترة العثمانية مؤلفات صُبغت بعضيا بطابع الموالاة والتحيّز

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of Multistage and Numerical Discretization Methods for Estimating Parameters in Nonlinear Linear Ordinary Differential Equations Models.
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Many of the dynamic processes in different sciences are described by models of differential equations. These models explain the change in the behavior of the studied process over time by linking the behavior of the process under study with its derivatives. These models often contain constant and time-varying parameters that vary according to the nature of the process under study in this We will estimate the constant and time-varying parameters in a sequential method in several stages. In the first stage, the state variables and their derivatives are estimated in the method of penalized splines(p- splines) . In the second stage we use pseudo lest square to estimate constant parameters, For the third stage, the rem

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Counseling program efficiency in developing emotional competence of intermediate school students
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Emotional competence, is relatively a new concept, stands for the ability of people to perceive their feelings and emotions, and sharing them with others. It also refers to capability in optimizing these feeling and emotions, and managing them over various situations. Thus, this study aims to examine the efficiency of counseling program in developing an emotional competence among intermediate school students in Baghdad city. The sample included group of female students at intermediate stage. The findings revealed none of experimental and control groups have statistically significant differences in pre-posttests of emotional competence efficiency.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Underwriting policy and its impact on the productivity of the life insurance portfolio: Analytical study in the "Iraqi General Insurance Company
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The research aims to study the basic concepts of the underwriting policy with its various indicators. The researcher studies the underwriting policy with its various indicators (sex, health status, age of the insured, insurance amount, The method of acceptance, payment method, and duration of insurance) where each of these indicators constitute an important factor in the productivity of life insurance policies, where the productivity of life insurance policies face many difficulties because insurance is a service and not a tangible material commodity and its benefits and not current. Therefore, the life insurance company needs to use a prudent underwriting policy so as not to endanger its financial position due to the expansion of the un

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 18 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Challenges of Translation from Persian to Arabic In Light of the Equivalence Theory of Mona Baker; Equivalence at the Word Level
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This dissertation studies the application of equivalence theory developed by Mona Baker in translating Persian to Arabic. Among various translation methodologies, Mona Baker’s bottom-up equivalency approach is unique in several ways. Baker’s translation approach is a multistep process. It starts with studying the smallest linguistic unit, “the word”, and then evolves above the level of words leading to the translation of the entire text. Equivalence at the word level, i.e., word for word method, is the core point of Baker’s approach.

This study evaluates the use of Baker’s approach in translation from Persian to Arabic, mainly because finding the correct equivalence is a major challenge in this translation. Additionall

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflection of mergers and acquisitions in the stock returns and financial performance - An Empirical Study of major international companies to the pharmaceutical industry-
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Research aims to identify the immediate impact of the announcement of mergers in the stockholders and the feasibility of gain abnormal return and benefiting from  asymmetric information during the announcement that unite 30 days before the announcement of the merger, and announcement day, and 30 days after the announcement of the merger. It was the largest and most important mergers and acquisitions pick that occurred during the global financial crisis, specifically in health care/pharmaceutical industry, Pfizer and Wyeth merger with Novartis acquisition on Alcon. search has adopted three hypotheses: the first hypothesis that ((achieves the target company's shareholders positive abnormal return (or negative) during and befor

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