تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The light-based life in the universe, including the human derived concepts and meanings of the fear of darkness and evil, comfort and goodness of light, became constitute bilateral haunted man to this day in various concepts of life.Therefore reflect the light form artistic aesthetic in visual arts such arts Fine Photography and the other until the emergence of art cinema, as the use of lighting in cinema has produced high-energy in the composition of its values expressive and symbolic, where it became dark and light are the space visually moving the vehicles media kit for many within the work structure artwork. The research is divided into five chapters, the first chapter (the methodological framework) that included an introduction the
... Show MoreWhereas conventional methods of teaching history do not meet the sometimes purpose has suggested some educators strategies modern help to improve the level of students in the education process through activating prior knowledge and employed in positions of current learning, and focus attention on the points and the outstanding elements of the content and practice techniques Calendar criticof ideas and meanings and mental and linguistic activities used to verify the extent of reaching understanding. &n
... Show MoreThis study aims to identify the impact of social support on breast cancer patients’ psychological rigidity using a sample in Ramallah and al-Bireh. A descriptive correlative approach was adopted to fulfill the goals of the study and a questionnaire consisted of two criteria: social support and psychological rigidity, which was adopted as a tool for data collection for the study. In order to achieve the goals of the study, the researcher selected a convenient sample that consisted of 123 female breast cancer patients in Ramallah and al-Bireh. This sample represented 50% of the original patient population. The study showed that the average estimated percentage of social support and psychological rigidity for women with breast cancer, in
... Show MoreThe propagation of laser beam in the underdense deuterium plasma has been studied via computer simulation using the fluid model. An appropriate computer code “HEATER” has been modified and is used for this purpose. The propagation is taken to be in a cylindrical symmetric medium. Different laser wavelengths (1 = 10.6 m, 2 = 1.06 m, and 3 = 0.53 m) with a Gaussian pulse type and 15 ns pulse widths have been considered. Absorption energy and laser flux have been calculated for different plasma and laser parameters. The absorbed laser energy showed maximum for = 0.53 m. This high absorbitivity was inferred to the effect of the pondermotive force.
The aim of this paper is to derive a posteriori error estimates for semilinear parabolic interface problems. More specifically, optimal order a posteriori error analysis in the - norm for semidiscrete semilinear parabolic interface problems is derived by using elliptic reconstruction technique introduced by Makridakis and Nochetto in (2003). A key idea for this technique is the use of error estimators derived for elliptic interface problems to obtain parabolic estimators that are of optimal order in space and time.
PMMA (Poly methyl methacrylate) is considered one of the most commonly used materials in denture base fabrication due to its ideal properties. Although, a major problem with this resin is the frequent fractures due to heavy chewing forces which lead to early crack and fracture in clinical use. The addition of nanoparticles as filler performed in this study to enhance its selected mechanical properties. The Nano-additive effect investigated in normal circumstances and under a different temperature during water exposure. First, tests applied on the prepared samples at room temperature and then after exposure to water bath at (20, 40, 60) C° respectively. SEM, PSD, EDX were utilized for samples evaluation in this study. Flexural
... Show Moreملخص البحث: يعد اسلوب تدريب المقاومات المرنة واحد من اساليب تدريب القوة العضلية فهو النظام الذي يتم من خلاله استخدام تمرينات يتم ادائها ضد مقاومات متغيرة مثل الحبال المطاطية او اشرطة الساندو، ويمتاز هذا الاسلوب بتغير الشدة خلال اداء التمرين الواحد اي ان كلما تم مط الحبل المطاطي ازدادت مقاومته وبالتالي فان اللاعب يستخرج قوته اكثر كلما اقترب الى مركزية الحركة في التمرين وهذا هو جوهر الاختلاف بينه وبين استخد
... Show MoreThis paper develops a nonlinear transient three-dimensional heat transfer finite element model and a rate independent three-dimensional deformation model, developed for the CO2 laser welding simulations in Al-6061-T6 alloy. Simulations are performed using an indirect coupled thermal-structural method for the process of welding. Temperature-dependent thermal properties of Al-6061-T6, effect of latent heat of fusion, and the convective and radiative boundary conditions are included in the model. The heat input to the model is assumed to be a Gaussian heat source. The finite element code ANSYS12, along with a few FORTRAN subroutines, are employed to obtain the numerical results. The benefit of the proposed methodology is that it
... Show MoreObjectives: The study aimed to evaluate health behavior, evaluate Health Action Process Approach, determine the effectiveness of the Health Action Process Approach based the application of program on students’ engaging in regular physical exercise.
Methodology: The research design for this study was a quasi-experimental. The study sample included high school male students, the final sample size was(160 ) Non-probability sampling (convenience sample) are chosen, (80) students study group and (80) students control group.
Results: The results show there was no statistically significant difference in the HAPA constructs among family's socioeconomic class groups and less tha
... Show MoreThrough this descriptive study of the image of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the independent Iraqi press, the researcher relies on surveys, content analysis, and observation tools. The research community selected was the Iraqi independent press, represented by the Al-Zaman, Al-Dustour, and Al-Mada newspapers. The researcher adopts the comprehensive inventory method for newspaper issues produced between October 2019 and January 2020.
The results of this study show that Iran's interference in Iraq's internal affairs was one of the most prominent components of the picture that independent Iraqi newspapers seek to paint about the Islamic Republic of Iran.