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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of local tax revenues in financing local development: Case Study of Tebessa State for the Period[2010-2014[
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Local communities are in need of self-resources so that they can perform their multiple functions which serve the objectives of the local development, and tax revenues are considered as important sources of their funding. However, despite the efforts of the state to reform the fiscal system and to improve the management in the local administration, tax collection can increase when the state adopts a more effective policy to combat tax evasion and tax fraud. Accordingly, this research aims to shed light on the role of local tax revenues in the local development. A set of conclusions are drawn; the most important one is that Algeria, in order to achieve local development, has taken a set of reforms, which are still valid until now. The mos

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
ANALYSIS UNBALANCED FACTORIAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE RICE CROP
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Abstract:

           The great importance that distinguish these factorial experiments made ​​them subject a desirable for use and application in many fields, particularly in the field of agriculture, which is considered the broad area for experimental designs applications.

            And the second case for the factorial  experiment, which faces researchers have great difficulty in dealing with the case unbalance we mean that frequencies treatments factorial  are not equal meaning (that is allocated a number unequal of blocks or units experimental per tre

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Relationship Analysis Between Monetary Policy and Financial Sustainability in Iraq For the Period 2015–2021
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This research aims to study and analyze the reality of monetary policy and financial sustainability in Iraq through either a descriptive or analytical approach by trying to link and coordinate between monetary policy and fiscal policy to enhance economic sustainability. The research is based on the hypothesis that the monetary policy of Iraq contributes to achieving financial stability, which improves economic sustainability by providing aid and assistance to the state to reduce the budget deficit and exacerbate indebtedness. The author used the monetary policy indicators, the re-deduction of Treasury transfers by the central bank and the money supply, and financial sustainability indicators, including the public debt indicators and the

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
أسس تسوية مطالبات التأمين البحري دراسة حالة: سوق التأمين السوداني (للفترة 2005 - 2009 م)
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This research reviews the basis for the settlement of claims when marine losses occur, including the settlement of claims in the case of joint maritime losses for goods and ship objects, as well as the settlement of claims for damage to vessel objects when they are at sea risk and loss   during the sea voyage.   Construction

    The Research used descriptive, analytical and historical methods in preparing the research; the society of study composed of the employee in the insurance companies working in Sudan, the questionnaire was distributed for all study samples.  The study concluded some important results of which it is , there is a weak of awareness, and lack of

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of operational efficiency on some financial indicators according to the CAMEL model of banking financial stability: An applied research on a sample of Iraqi private banks for the period 2010-2020
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Abstract

          The research aims to determine the nature of the Iraqi market in terms of banking financial stability and the extent impact of the operational efficiency on it, Accordingly, chosen 15 relational banks were chosen as an intentional sample that could represent the Iraqi banking system for the period 2010-2020. The operational efficiency variable was measured according to the data envelope model, and banking financial stability used  CAMELS model which includes five indicators (capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, profitability, and liquidity), so for testing the research hypotheses used the random regression model by adopting the S

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing indicators of the results of applying forecasting methods for production plans (A case study at the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries)
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Economic organizations operate in a dynamic environment, which necessitates the use of quantitative techniques to make their decisions. Here, the role of forecasting production plans emerges. So, this study aims to the analysis of the results of applying forecasting methods to production plans for the past years, in the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries.

The Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries was chosen as a field of research for its role in providing distinguished products as well as the development and growth of its products and quality, and because it produces many products, and the study period was limited to ten years, from 2010 to 2019. This study used the descriptive approa

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE IMPACT OF CURRENCY AUCTION ON THE VARIABILITY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE IN IRAQ 2004-2015
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The transition states that Iraq economy lived it after 2003, and the change in tools used by monetary policy based on C.B.I law 56 in 2004, under the especially situation for the economy (structural imbalances and the weakness of banking & financial sector).

The monetary policy adopted the inflation targeting policy to mantain the monetary stability in the economy and considered it an incubator for future growth. It used the exchange rate as a nominal anchor to achieve the goal (because the rentier of economy, finance Shallowness & separation between real sector and finance sector, all this cause the normal channel to transfer the effect of monetary policy (interest rate) ineffective.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the impact of oil price fluctuation on the budget Deficit base in Iraq for the period (2003-2020)
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Abstract

                 The research dealt with a studying the impact of oil price fluctuations on one of the rules of financial discipline, which is the rule of budget deficit in the Iraqi economy for the period (2003-2020) as it is one of the quarterly economies that rely mainly on volatile oil revenues that fluctuate with oil prices in global markets, and therefore the general budget suffers. from The state of instability and then the government resorts to borrowing for a long time . this deficit in the general budget and increase the debt burden in the public debt.The research aim to measure and study the impact of oil price flu

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 11 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Alternatives Scenarios for Transportation During The Morning and Evening Peaks (The Entrances of The Jadiriya Complex Study Case) "A Planning Vision"
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The research aims to develop alternatives to transportation at the entrance to the Educational City (University of Baghdad) during the morning and evening peaks, which result from of the traffic congestion at the entrances to the educational city (the University of Baghdad), and affects the emotional, functional, and social performance of the whole city, and leads to hotbeds of confluence and congestion at the entrances in the morning and evening peaks. This movement was measured on the ground for pedestrians and vehicles. Some criteria were adopted to determine the density of road length to the area and density of roads for the number of users and the rate of the area served by roads. The research reviews the experiences of some

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The ISLAMIC Banks and its ability to exceed The world Finanical Crisis 2008 (Islamic Dubi Bank)
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The Recent days witness an in creasing importanc of Islamic Banks which stems from the wide spread in Islamic and non-Islamic countries,Especially in USA and European countries.the consideration in Islamic Banks came after the financial crisis in 2008.Islamic Banks work with conventional banks in most countries,that is,the formers may face the same risks which face the latters,that represent the larger percent of the International Banking system.the problms that may affect Islamic Banks related to many causes,some related to the working in common economic environment.others related to the possibility of simulation to the method of investment and financing in conventional Banks,this mean,the work with principles not compling with

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