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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Existence of Fixed Points for Expansive Mappings in Complete Strong Altering JS-metric space
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The paper aims at initiating and exploring the concept of extended metric known as the Strong Altering JS-metric, a stronger version of the Altering JS-metric. The interrelation of Strong Altering JS-metric with the b-metric and dislocated metric has been analyzed and some examples have been provided. Certain theorems on fixed points for expansive self-mappings in the setting of complete Strong Altering JS-metric space have also been discussed.

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of changing interest rates on net interest income and earnings per share in commercial banks
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ABSTRACT:

              Interest rates are one of the important aspects that affect the banking business directly, which is characterized by unstable dynamic dynamics, which must be viewed on a daily and continuous basis through the macroeconomic view, which directly affects the bank’s income realized from loans as interest received or interest paid on its deposits as an expense. Hence the earnings per share. The relationship between interest rates and between net income and earnings per share was measured and a correlation was found between them, and then the effect between them was measured using regression equations and they were applied and th

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
مجلة كلية الإدارة و الاقتصاد للدراسات الاقتصادية و الإدارية و المالية
دور مؤشر السيولة المصرفية في الرقابة الإشرافية للبنك المركزي العراقي على المصارف المتخصصة
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عد الرقابة الإشرافية احد اهم الأدوات التي تستخدمها البنوك المركزية في تقييم التزام المصارف بالمتطلبات التنظيمية والقوانين الصادرة منها وتستخدم البنوك المركزية عدة مؤشرات مالية منها مؤشر السيولة المصرفية لتقييم أداء المصارف تجاه حماية أموال المودعين وحماية المصارف من خطر نقص السيولة ومن ثم التعرض للإفلاس، لذا اقتضت الضرورة إلى دراسة مؤشر السيولة المصرفية الذي يستخدم كأحد أدوات الرقابة الإشرافية من قبل ال

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 27 2024
Journal Name
مؤسسة دار الصادق الثقافية
الجامعة ودورها في الحد من تعاطي المخدرات وتأثيرها على المدمنين (اسباب وحلول ومعالجات)
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ملخص البحث: تعتبر مشكلة تعاطي المخدرات من المشكلات التي تؤثر في بناء المجتمع وأفراده لما يترتب عليها من آثار اجتماعية واقتصادية ونفسية سيئة تنسحب على الفرد و على المجتمع، كما أنها ظاهرة اجتماعية مرضية تدفع إليها عوامل عديدة؛ بعضها يتعلق بالفرد والبعض الآخر بالأسرة والثالث بالبناء الاجتماعي ككل. وتعد ظاهرة انتشار المخدرات من الظواهر الأكثر تعقيدا وبارزة هذه الظاهر ة وإحدى مشكلات العصر، الشاملة في المجتمع، و

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Spatial Aesthetics in the Novels (Shai Al-Aroos by Maysaloon Hadi) and (Qiyamat Baghdad by Alya Talib) Balance Technical Study
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This study aims to create spatial balance between two Iraqi writers' novels (Maysaloon
Hadi, Alya Talib) technical and objective illustrates similarity points and difference in the
writers' style. We depended in our research on spatial classification considering the aggressive
and friendly, since the writers focused on them.
The research study concluded to many sides, some of which are similar and some are
different. Firstly, ingenuity description of the writers. Followed by the deep connection they
have. Because of the personal experience it emanated from alienation sensations and nostalgia
to deep roots to homeland.
On the other hand, difference aspects, we see Maysaloon takes symbols and illusions
unlike Aly

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 27 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Effect of the activity of Boswellia Carterii extracts on preservation of ground meat
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The study aimed to know the effect of the use alcoholic ethanol extraction of Boswellia Carterii In prolonging the period of preservation cooled ground meat in 4C for 6 days, it has been mixing ground meat with 150,300,450 mg/ml of alcoholic extract Consecutive, Where (0 was the control sample), All samples were stored separately for 0 , 3 , 6 days in Refrigerator temperature 4 C, Conducted by some microbial tests, Results have shown that mixing the ground meat with Boswellia Carterii extraction Led to prolong the storage of meat for 6 days at 4 C .and the Best result came when adding alcoholic ethanol extract of Boswellia Carterii by 450mg/ml Which Equal 0.9 g ,that reducing microbial load more higher than 150&300 mg/ml. All of thes

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The tax planning and its effect on the investment: On sample of Iraqi Contribution Company
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The importance of the current study  lies in the  importance of the  Tax policy that  being considered one of the most important tools working on fulfilling  the  social,  financial  and economic  goals  and improving  the investment environment  in the country  to become  having the ability to  activate the  national economy. The current study  has  referred  that  (  Has  the  tax planning  practiced by  the Iraqi  contribution  companies  led to increase  the  far-term tax  outcome through  getting  benefit of   the monetary  funds  and expansion in&nbs

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Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
الأسطول والقوة البحریة في سلطنة عُمان خلال النصف الأول من القرن التاسع عشر
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Development and progress of the fleet and the navy in Oman during
the reign of Sultan Said bin sultan from 1804 to 1856.
It had second level in Arab Gulf and Indian Ocean during the first half
of nineteenth century. The fleet of Oman in this time became after British
fleet.
Several reasons were behind the development of Omani fleet
- First : The aim of Sultan Said was to built a large navy yard in Arab Gulf
and Indian Ocean to encourage him -to made many ships factories.
- Second: Arab Gulf and Indian Ocean within the reign of Sultan Said
wittinsed the confilicts and wars between different forces it drived Sultan Said
to built agood and strong navy.
- Third The main aim of Oman during the reign of Sultan

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 05 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Investigation of the Electron Coefficients of (Ar, He, N2, O2) Gases in the Ionosphere
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In this study, the electron coefficients; Mean energy , Mobility and Drift velocity  of different gases  Ar, He, N2 and O2  in the  ionosphere have been calculated using BOLSIG+ program to check the solution results of Boltzmann equation results, and effect of reduced electric field (E/N) on electronic coefficients. The electric field has been specified in the limited range 1-100 Td. The gases were in the ionosphere layer at an altitude frame 50-2000 km. Furthermore, the mean energy and drift velocity steadily increased with increases in the electric field, while mobility was reduced. It turns out that there is a significant and obvious decrease in mobility as a result of inelastic collisions and in addition lit

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Scopus (2)
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
دور الاعتماد المزدوج للكلفة التاريخية والقيمة العادلة في تحقيق ملائمة وموثوقية البيانات المالية
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Performance measurement is considered one of the most important issues in

Measuring performance effectiveness in the educational institutions by maintaining balance among quantity measurable factors. They can be financial or non‐financial factors. Consequently they reflect decisive factors in the success of educational institutions and determining suitable standards and dimensions for their activities and giving it proportional importance. Adopting the idea of Balanced Score Card as one of the modern administrative techniques and methods by educational institutions assists in the development of administrative work, adjusting the performance in addition to achieving comprehensive standard and development of educational universit

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