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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Employing Digital Technology in the Formation of the Theatrical Show Space: ثامر طه عبد علي
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  The current research tries to identify the employment of the digital technology in the formation of the theatrical show space. The researcher started with the significant importance of the digital technology and its workings in the formation of the contemporary theatrical show being a modern, artistic, aesthetic, intellectual and technological means to convey the topic in an integrated manner, as well as its close connection with the creative directive vision and the creative designing vision. It provides a variety of models of numerous implications in terms of transmission and advancement of the relationships represented by clarifying the scenography and dramatic conflict forms according to the numerous motivations of the directo

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
An Instruction Program for Residents of Geriatric-Care Homes about Personal Hygiene in Al Cyelakh Geriatric Care Home
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Objective(s):        The study aims to evaluate the information of the elderly about personal hygiene , and to find out the relationship between residents of geriatric-care homes knowledge and their demographic characteristics .

Methodology:      A quasi-experimental design study is conducted at geriatric home  in Al Cyelakh  Geriatric Care Home. The study was started at between November 20, 2021, and March 1, 2023. randomly sample of (30) elderly  in geriatric home were studied . Data were collected throughout the utilization of the adopted questionnaire and interview technique. The questionnaire was consists of (40) items related to concerned personal hygiene geriatrics persons, t

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2015
Journal Name
Al-academy
Integrated in the industrial design system: نوال محسن علي، مصطفى محمد بركات
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Although the majority of trends confirm the design aspects of the performance, functional and aesthetic design of the product. However, the attention was more focused on the nature of the plastic for those results, it is through the appearance of formal and guaranteed career such as designing Achieved adopt us the extent of the impact Relations Association between the elements and principles of design to achieve complementarity in the completed design of aesthetic and functional significance expressive and symbolic and in doing so has introduced a lot of new concepts for the arrangement and organization, coordination and functional classification of the unfinished design gave way to show diversity trends in the design of industrial produ

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 25 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Controversy between Mask and Text in the Literary Books Covers Design: عبدالحسين عبدالواحد
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The reciprocal relationship between the text and the mask in the printed product is one of the most important relationships that frame the level of communication between the appearance and the interior, although it is not cared for by some designers and publishing institutions. Therefore, the problem of research is determined by the following question (What is the dialectical relationship between the text and the mask in the literary books covers design?). The research aims to shed light on this problematic relationship at the level of reception and aesthetics at the same moment. The theoretical framework included two sections: the first (mask and text ... the concept and the mutual relationship), while the second section (trends in the

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Representations of the place in the drawings of Nuri al-Rawi: زينب سعد عزالدين-محمد جلوب جبر
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The place and environment in which the artist lives is considered one of the influences and drivers active in him, thus determining his style and artistic direction later, and in our research we have dealt with the effect of place and environment in the drawings of Nuri al-Rawi and the extent of their reflection on the general, so the research came within two frameworks: The first is the methodological framework that represents We have the problem of the research, its importance, its goal and the limits of research in it in addition to defining terms. As for the theoretical framework, the study dealt with two topics, the first of which included the topic (Nuri the narrator, the environment and the place) dealing with the role and effect

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Role of Iraqi TV Satellite Channels in Forming the Attitudes of University Students towards Terror-ism
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            The phenomenon of terrorism is one of the most serious challenges facing the world at present. So this concept has occupied a great deal of interest of researchers and scholars in the relevant disciplines. There is no doubt that the study of the concept of terrorism requires a study of its various aspects. However, this study will be limited to knowing the role of television channels in providing the public with information about terrorist events, the extent to which young people rely on these channels to shape their attitudes towards terrorism issues. This study also seeks the relationship between satellite television channels and terrorism based on the relevant media li

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 24 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The effectiveness of balance in building formal relationships for media evidence: ساهرة عبد الواحد حسن
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The media guide is a small-sized printed medium, whose importance is highlighted through the specific information it carriesThe task of the guide lies in the clarity of these indications and making a positive impact on the recipient with understanding so it is a means for the purpose of reaching the effect and effectiveness of the message symbols from the movements of lines in which elements that are supposed to be equal in the performance of their functions and the purpose of their existence gather to achieve the mental response of perception, understanding and enjoyment. It must be in an objective unity based on the balance in this distribution. To form a formal organizational unit and an integrated system, the result of which is to gi

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Social Graphic Design and its Reflection in Combating Drug Abuse: محمد عباس مظهر الزيدي
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Social graphic design is the design that realizes the role and responsibility of the designer in society, and the use of graphic design in bringing about social change, especially as it is a professional contribution that plays an important role in the behavioral development of societies, and through the above, the researcher found a logical justification for his research problem, which is summarized by the following question: (What is the concept of Social Graphic Design and its implications in the fight against drug abuse)
While the two objectives of the research were identified in defining the social graphic design and its effect on combating drug abuse, and the theoretical framework was divided into two topics, the first study dea

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The manifestations of the image theater in the performances of postmodern theater: فينوس حميد محمد جواد
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When we try to navigate the experiment in search of the repressed and to find the dream of creativity by changing the modularity of the presentation, and the relationship of the characters with the rest of the elements according to a visual vision that reflects the product of the presentation system through the formation of visions and ideas within the textual structure.
We find that the expression of the theatrical act may need to exclude narrative dialogues and turn them into a tangible visual language. Physical and visual expression, and movement review, thus producing a “picture language” through which it is possible to form a new vision, and this is called (image theater), which translates the language of dialogue through lig

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Publication Date
Wed May 18 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Formal Diversity In The Structure Design Arabic Magazine Covers: نور أحمد حاجم الربيعي
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The magazine is one of the print media , which represents an important gateway to the wider world , due for its intellectual and cultural fun for the recipient affecting the everyday needs him in various directions . The cover of the magazine is the owner of appearance and impact of the first look the magazine , including the magnitude of the value of the functional and aesthetic pay the reader to the acquisition, as it seeks designed to attract the receiver and achieve better grades optical communication enabled this diversity vocabulary construction for the cover of the magazine and consistent with the idea of design .Ensure Current search four chapters , first chapter of which , the research problem and was questioning following what

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