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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of monetary policy in achieving financial stability of Iraqi banks for the period (2009 - 2017)
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The responsibility of the Central Bank through the implementation of its monetary policy to maintain the integrity and stability of the financial system and the economic system, because any shock, whether internal or external, may endanger the financial system and instability, so the research sheds light on the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability, The most important conclusion is that there is an increase in capital, which gives banks the possibility to face the risks to which they are exposed, as well as a rise in the total bad debts, which weakens its financial position, which constitutes a decline in the financial stability of these banks.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Features of Modernity in the Works of Saleh Al-Jami (An Analytical Study): رؤى قحطان عبد الله
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Since the beginning of the twentieth century, the art of composition has witnessed major transformations that accompanied the transformations that occurred in the cognitive field. The plastic artists rejected the prevailing artistic line, and sought to create a new artistic format that accommodates the new social and cultural problems. So was the announcement of the era of modernity in the late nineteenth century, with the birth of the impressionism movement that gave a place to challenge all that is familiar. . And he drew the attention of the researcher, and for that he chose the research title (Characteristics of Modernity in the Works of Saleh Al-Jumayyi (Analytical Study)) The researcher divided the research as follows:
Methodolo

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 18 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
رعاية الايوبييـن للعلـم والعلمـاء في مصـر وبـــــلاد الشـــــــام (567-648هـ/1171-1250م)
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The Ayyub era witnessed a popular for science, knowledge and became the Ayyub state in its various regions a scientific beacon، despite their preoccupation with wars with the Crusaders now that did not discourage them from their care for science and scientists، and this scientific renaissance had many factors، foremost of which are the tendencies of the sultans and Ayyub kings to pay attention to science and its care، through their establishment of the role of science

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 05 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Iraqi Satellite Music Channels and Their Role in Spreading Negative Values among University Youth
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This study aims to clarify the role of Iraqi satellite channels in spreading negative values ​​among university youth; and the tendency of this segment to simulate the descending behaviors and pseudo-peculiar concepts of our society, which are displayed through the screens of these channels, based on the relevant media literature such as scientific references and the results of previous studies and research.

The study followed the survey methodology to examine the public based on the questionnaire as a research tool, which was distributed to a sample of male and female students of Baghdad University enrolled in the university for the academic year 2011-2012.

In order to achieve the specific objectives of this research

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Psychological Disobedience and its Representations in the Graffiti Art: نجلاء خضير حسان -زهراء صائب أحمد
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The current research addresses the psychological disobedience in general and disobedience in post-modernism arts in specific. The research problem is summarized by the following question: does disobedience have representations in the graffiti art? The research objective is to identify disobedience and its representations in the graffiti. The research limits are set and the terms used are identified. As for the theoretical framework, it consists of three sections: the first: the psychological disobedience, whereas the second: disobedience in post-modernism arts. The third section addresses graffiti art. Then come the research procedures followed by the results, conclusions, recommendations, and suggestions. The two researchers arrived at

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Globalization and its Transformations in Contemporary ceramics (European and American Porcelain a Model): أسعد مطر خليل
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Globalization has occupied a great deal of studies, research and literature, in addition to being a phenomenon that has imposed itself firmly on the ground. Globalization is considered the main feature of the current moment in today's world. The world is now transforming in an unprecedented way under noticeable titles of successive waves of knowledge and technology.The current research aims to identify the effects of globalization on the variables and their political, social, media and cultural dimensions, as well as culture of consumption and cultural identity.The theoretical framework included two sections: the first is the concept of globalization, its history and its dimensions, and the second is the modernity in contemporary Europea

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Gender Profiling of ads in Egyptian Channel MBC
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The study begins with the idea that advertising is a form of culture. Therefore, it is not possible to be surrounded by an actual briefing from one-sided premises such as those that are based solely on the artistic, aesthetic or technical aspects, without linking it to the culture in which it is produced.
The researcher attempts to shed light on the relation between the advertising letter and the concept of gender. And here lies the importance of the research as the content of the ads and their form and implicit values in the text and image reflect the cultural values that must be identified as well as the most important roles that are stereotyped in advertisements and their relationship to the culture of society.
Advertising is

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analytical study on the implications of the GATS Agreement and its implications on the Egyptian banking sector
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International trade in services is becoming increasingly important as it is an economic activity that deals with invisible trade, which has become increasingly important in the balance of international trade. The establishment of the WTO is a starting point in international trade relations. It is responsible for all aspects of international trade, , And in view of the continued increase in international trade in services, the need for more internationally recognized rules has become more urgent, especially as it has been increasingly proven that the traditional framework of public services is inadequate to operate some of the most dynamic and innovative sectors of the economy. (GATS) to be the regulatory framework for this sector

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm for Design of Distribution System with Practical Application
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The Ant System Algorithm (ASA) is a member of the ant colony algorithms family in swarm intelligence methods (part of the Artificial Intelligence field), which is based on the behavior of ants seeking a path and a source of food in their colonies. The aim of This algorithm is to search for an optimal solution for Combinational Optimization Problems (COP) for which is extremely difficult to find solution using the classical methods like linear and non-linear programming methods. 

The Ant System Algorithm was used in the management of water resources field in Iraq, specifically for Haditha dam which is one of the most important dams in Iraq. The target is to find out an efficient management system for

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 15 2020
Journal Name
Al-academy
Aesthetics of Color Rhythm in the Guiding Poster: خليف محمود خليف -معتز عناد غزوان
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The idea of rhythm is basically associated with movement, as it is a regular frequency of movement combining between unity and change. Rhythm can be defined as a repetition of a certain element. Rhythm has a major role in the guiding poster which we are today in dire need for in light of escalation of coronavirus pandemic and its dire repercussions on entire international community, as the current research highlights the aesthetics of color rhythm in the guiding poster to confront coronavirus pandemic.

The spread of this invisible unknown horror preoccupied the world in different fields of scientific and human knowledge to the extent that man today has started looking for effective medical solutions to put an end to this pandemic

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