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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Instrumental Enrichment in the Acquisition of Geographical Concepts for First Grade Student in Intermediate school
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The present study aims at knowing the effect of instrumental enrichment in the acquisition of geographical concepts for first grade student in intermediate school. The study is restricted in the students of first grade student in intermediate school\ The EducationalDirectorate of Rusafa for academic (2013/2014),for the purpose of achieving the objective, the following hypotheses:

There is no statistical significant different at the level of (0.5) between the scores of the experimental group  who study geography according to the instrumental enrichment and the scores of the control group who learned geographical according to the traditional methods.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 08 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Visible Enhanced Photodetector Made by Spray Pyrolysis
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Barium–doped TiO2 / n-Si photodetector was fabricated by spray pyrolysis exhibited visible enhancement responsivity profile with peak response at 600 nm flat response between 650 and 900 nm. The quantum efficiency was 30% and specific detectivity was 5x1012 W-1Hz1/2cm at peak response. The GaAlAs laser diode was used to estimate the rise time of the detector.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
الثغرات التشريعية والمشاكل الفنية في تنفيذ الأمر الخاص بالاستقطاع المباشر لضريبة الدخل
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تزايد اهتمام الحكومات باختلاف أنظمة الحكم فيها والأفكار السياسية التي تؤمن بها، بالضرائب كأحد أدوات السياسة المالية، تسعى إلى أن تحقق من خلالها أهداف اقتصادية واجتماعية وسياسية فضلا" عن الأهداف المالية، إذ إن السياسة الضريبية تصاغ أهدافها باتساق وانسجام مع أهداف السياسة الاقتصادية بشكل عام، و إنما كانت الضريبة عام، ولما كانت الضريبة على هذا القدر من الأهمية فانه لم يكن مستبعدا" أن تحظى بعناية مشرعي ا

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Effect of Tharthar-Tigris Canal on the Environmental Properties of the Tigris River Northern Baghdad, Iraq
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The present study is considered the first on this sector of the Tigris River after 2003. It is designed for two aims, the first is to demonstrate the seasonal variations in physicochemical parameters of Tharthar-Tigris Canal and Tigris River; the second is to explain the possible effects of canal on some environmental properties in the Tigris River. Water samples were being collected monthly. Six sampling sites were selected, two on Tharthar Canal and four along the Tigris River, one before the confluence as a control site and the others downstream the confluence with the canal. For a period from January to December 2020, nineteen physicochemical parameters were investigated including air and water temperature, turbidity, electrical cond

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Scopus (17)
Crossref (5)
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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Association of pvc genes expression with Biofilm formation in Clinical Isolates of Pseudomonas aeruginosa
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PvcABCD are cluster of genes found in Pseudomonas aeruginosa. The research was designed to examine the relationship between the pvc genes expression and cupB gene, which plays a crucial role in the development of biofilm, and rhlR, which regulates the expression of biofilm-related genes, and to investigate whether the pvc genes form one or two operons. The aims were achieved by employing qRT-PCR technique to measure the gene expression of genes of interest. It was found that out of 25 clinical isolates, 21 isolates were qualified as P.aeruginosa. Amongst, 18(85.7%) were evaluated as biofilm producers, 10 (47.6%), 5 (23.8%), and 3 (14.2%) were evaluated as strong, moderate and weak producers respectively, while, 3 (14.2%) were considered

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Crossref (1)
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 21 1930
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Quelques raisons du total et son impact sur l'interprétation du Coran: Study of explanatory models
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The reasons for the totality are varied and multiple, some of which are attributed to the methods of the Arabic language as the participant
Verbal and omnipotent differences in the oud of conscience, which are comprehensive reasons for language in all
And some of these reasons are due to the sciences of the Qur'an, such as cessation and initiation
The explanation of the explanation for the multiplicity of words and differences in them, which necessarily led to a dispute jurisprudence
Linked to the origin of disagreement in the interpretation of the totality and its orientation and understanding and to summarize this subject and diverge
Parts and vocabulary did not receive the necessary care and did not absorb the lesson an

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 11 2021
Journal Name
جامعة بغداد/ كلية التربية للعلوم الصرفة - ابن الهيثم
معايير CCSSM المتضمنة في كتاب الرياضيات للصف الخامس العلمي وتوافرها لدى الطلاب
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic leadership skills on effective environmental management according to the (VUCA Prime) model
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Purpose: clarify the integrative relationship of strategic leadership skills and effective management and the role of those skills combined or individually in achieving effective management.

Research design: The researchers used the quantitative method by surveying a class sample from the heads of the executive departments in a group of Iraqi private banks, consisting of (106) individuals according to the (VUCA Prime) methodology for effective management and the ten skills model for Johansen. The questionnaire was analyzed using a model of the structural equation.

Findings: The most prominent results of the research were the presence of a weak ro

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental Investigation of Using Evaporative Air Cooler for Winter Air-Conditioning in Baghdad
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This paper presents an efficient methodology to design modified evaporative air-cooler for winter air-conditioning in Baghdad city as well as using it for summer air-conditioning by adding a heating process after the humidification process. laboratory tests were performed on a direct evaporative cooler (DEC) followed by passing the air on hot water through heat exchanger placed in the coolers air duct exit. The tests were conducted on the 2nd of December /2011 when the ambient temperature was 8.1°C and the relative humidity was  (68%). The air flow rate is assumed to vary between 0.069 to 0.209 kg/s with constant water flow rate of 0.03 kg/s in the heat exchanger. The performance is reported in terms of effectiveness of DEC, satura

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Influence of Manipulating the Virtual Library in Comparison with the Individual Learning via Computer Use in English Language
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The study aims at investigating the effectiveness of the Virtual Library Technology, in developing the achievement of the English Language Skills in the Center of Development and Continuous Education, in comparison with the individual learning via personal computer to investigate the students' attitude towards the use of both approaches. The population of the study includes the participants in the English Language course arranged in the Center. The sample includes 60 students who were randomly chosen from the whole population (participants in English Courses for the year 2009-2010). The sample is randomly chosen and divided into two experimental groups. The first group has learned through classroom technology; while the other group has l

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