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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 23 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
العمق الوجداني والانفعال العاطفي لدى شعراء القرنين السابع والثامن الهجريين في الأندلس
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 The Andalusi did not leave any poetic art without expressing his psychological and sentimental emotions and the depth of emotions and it sincerity. We found Andalusian translated his emotions into poetry and in many different subjects. The Poetic images and the analogies were plentiful in their poetry.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 12 2021
Journal Name
مجلة اداب الفراهيدي
دور القنوات الفضائية العراقية في تشكيل اتجاهات الشباب ازاء قضايا المجتمع ومشكلاته
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Clients’ Satisfaction towards Primary Health Care Centers Services at Baghdad City
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Objective: To evaluate the client's satisfaction about the services provided in primary health care centers in the
city of Baghdad and its impact on the improvement of services.
Methodology: A simple random sample consisting of (200) clients to primary health care centers in the city of
Baghdad, (15-20) clients for each center using a questionnaire to evaluate the client's satisfaction for the service
and the use of the direct method of interview, which lasts for (6-10) minutes.
Results: Results of the study show that the number of men visits to primary health care centers, fewer women
This indicates that the most important responsibilities of family members and private health care is the
responsibility of women than

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Obstacles to the application of total quality management program in a number of iraqi service organizations
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The research aims to statement the main obstacles that prevent the application of total quality management (TQM) in a number of Iraqi service organizations, and by one organization in each of the sectors (health, finance, education, higher education, tourism), which are, (Al-Yarmouk Teaching Hospital, Rafidain Bank/ Branch of Hay Al-Arabi Al-Jadid, Al-Karkh/1 Directorate of Education, College of administration and Economics/ Baghdad University, International Palestine Hotel). The research also, tries to classify the priority of the obstacles depending on the type of service organization surveyed. And diagnoses the extent to which or the difference of the research sample members views on the order of obstacles of TQM, and also proposes a

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
أجـــــوبة الحافظ محمد البرزالي على سؤالات العز ابن الحاجب في الجرح والتعديل
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ملخص البحث بالعربي

عنوان البحث : أجـــــوبة الحافظ محمد البرزالي على سؤالات العز ابن الحاجب في الجرح والتعديل

يهدف البحث : إلى جمع أجوبة الحافظ أبي عبدالله محمد البرزالي في الجرح والتعديل، ودراستها.

يتكون البحث من : مقدمة، وتمهيد، نص السؤالات، وخاتمة، وفهارس.

المقدمة : تسمية الموضوع، وسبب اختياره، وأهميته .

والتميهد : ترجمة مختصرة للحافظ أبي عبدالله البرزالي، والتعريف بأجوبة الحافظ الب

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison between robust methods in canonical correlation by using empirical influence function
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       Canonical correlation analysis is one of the common methods for analyzing data and know the relationship between two sets of variables under study, as it depends on the process of analyzing the variance matrix or the correlation matrix. Researchers resort to the use of many methods to estimate canonical correlation (CC); some are biased for outliers, and others are resistant to those values; in addition, there are standards that check the efficiency of estimation methods.

In our research, we dealt with robust estimation methods that depend on the correlation matrix in the analysis process to obtain a robust canonical correlation coefficient, which is the method of Biwe

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The relationship between the rule of mental improvement and ugliness and the objectives of Sharia And its impact on rulings
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The research addresses a fundamental Islamic jurisprudential Purposeful issue, which is (Sharia), and to indicate the impact of this on Islamic jurisprudence, deriving rulings and extracting purposes, and to repel the illusion that this issue is only doctrinal, and clarifying the aspects of similarities and links between them by explaining the origin of deriving the purposes of Islamic Law (Sharia) through the meanings and wisdom learned from the texts and the explanation of the rulings. The rulings of Islamic Law (Sharia) have urged bringing benefits and repelling harms, and that the path to do so is reason and its production. I began the research by defining the purposes of Islamic Law (Sharia), then defining the rule of rational right

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Internal Audit in Assessing the Risks of Management Decisions regarding Strategic Operations )Acquisition)
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The research aims to verify the Role of Internal Auditing in Assessing the Risks of Strategic Operations (Acquisition) and then reflect on management decisions. Since all corporations wish to expand, growth and domination of the market may expose them to multiple risks that lead to failure. The research assumes two main hypotheses. First, there is no role for internal audit in evaluating the strategic operations (acquisition). Second, there is no relationship between internal auditing in assessing the risks of strategic operations (Acquisition) and management decisions. The data was collected by using a questionnaire distributed to a group of private bank employees. The statistical analysis regarding research rejected the two hyp

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of an Educational Program in Enhancing Nurses’ Knowledge about Occupational Health Hazards
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Objective: To determine the effectiveness of an Educational Program in Enhancing Nurse’s Knowledge about Occupational Health Hazards at Medical City Hospitals in Baghdad City.

Methodology: The present study employed a quasi-experimental design held at Medical City Hospitals in Baghdad City. A non-probability sample (convenience sample) consisted of (60) nurse. Data were collected by using a self-report questionnaire which consisted of six parts (a) socio-demographic characteristics (b) physical hazards knowledge (c) chemical hazards knowledge (d) biological hazards knowledge (e) psychological hazards knowledge and (f) mechanical hazards knowledge. Data were analyzed using the statistical packag

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analyzing the relationship between stock market volatility and economic activity in the USA
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This study examines the dynamic relationship between stock market and economic activity in the United States to verify the possibility of using financial indicators to monitor the turning points in the expected path of future economic activity. Has been used methodology (Johansen - Juselius) for the Co-integration and causal (Granger) to test the relationship between the (S & P 500 , DJ) index  and gross domestic product (GDP) in the United States for the period
(1960-2009). The results of the analysis revealed the existence of a causal relationship duplex (two-way) between the variables mentioned. which means the possibility of the use stock market indicators to pre

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