تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The Abbasid state inherited many enemies because of the Islamic conquests in the Umayyad era and its geographical extension, which included a number of seas, so it had to direct its energy to preserve the achievements achieved by its predecessors from the Muslims. One of the sea princes who had a role in protecting the coasts of the Abbasid state, especially in the Levant and Egypt.
Poverty is defined as a low standard of living in the sense that a poor person can not afford a minimum standard of living. The phenomenon of poverty is one of the most serious problems that must be dealt with seriously. This phenomenon has persisted in Iraq for decades because of the harsh economic conditions and unstable security conditions due to the crises it has faced since 2013. This study requires much study and analysis. And rural areas as a special case. In this study, the researcher examined the poverty line as a criterion in estimating the poverty indicators, which include (poverty percentage H, poverty gap PG, poverty intensity PS), based on the continuous social and economic survey data for households in 2014. The ma
... Show MoreThe study of the tendencies of scientific research in specialized journalism through the three specialized levels, specifically the third level. It is referred to be a monthly, quarterly or annual magazine that follows the publication of the researches for new studies which have come to in every specialization. it is directed to the highly educated and is almost an alternative book. Thus, the subject is specialized and the audience is specialized.
The study aims in both its survey and field section at knowing the type of researches and their classification and the form, gender and the use of foreign sources and their scientific tank and the geographical position in addition to knowing the opinions of researchers and their satisfa
... Show MoreThe research seeks to design a program of guidance in the form of emotional perception rational to reduce the fear of failure, to identify the effect of method of emotional perception rational in reducing the fear of failure. To achieve these objectives, the researcher adopted the null-hypotheses, which assume there are no statistically significant differences in the degree of fear of failure (for the control group) in the pre-posttest. There are no statistically significant differences in the fear of failure (for the experimental group) in the pre-posttest. There were no statistically significant differences in the fear of failure of the groups (experimental and control) after the application of the program in the post-test. In order to
... Show Moreخضعت المحاسبة الإدارية إلى هيمنة المحاسبة المالية عليها اثر ظهور القوائم المالية المدققة في بدايات القرن الماضي الناتجة من ظهور المنظمات المنظمة للمهنة وما رافق من إلزام الشركات بإعداد التقارير المالية من الحسابات المالية وفقاً للمبادئ المحاسبية المقبولة قبولاً عاماً والتي أثرت في قيمة المعلومات المقدمة من قبل المحاسبة الإدارية مما أدى إلى إن تصبح تلك المعلومات غير ملائمة للاستخدام الإداري وهو ما ا
... Show MoreGrammatical particles are so important in understanding a text and its meaning in linguistic context. This paper " Grammatical Behavior and Uses of Negative and Prohibitive Particles in Semitic Languages: A Comparative Semitic Study"
tackles a very important topic in Semitic languages. Comparative studies in Semitic languages shed light on phenomena in different languages that are related or have one common origin. No doubt, such studies have their own effects on language study in general especially when studying a specific phenomenon and explaining it by reliance on the one origin, or by investigating the various phases of its historical development.
... Show MoreThe report includes a group of symbols that are employed within a framework that gives a language of greater impact. This research discusses the problem of the semiotic employment of religious symbols in press reports published in the electronic press across two levels: Reading to perceive the visual message in its abstract form, and the second for re-understanding and interpretation, as this level gives semantics to reveal the implicit level of media messages through a set of semiotic criteria on which it was based to cut texts to reach the process of understanding and interpretation.
The report includes a group of symbols that are employed within a framework that gives a language of greater impact. This research discusses the p
... Show MoreThis research aim to exploring the positive psychological capital concept (PsyCap) which drawn from positive psychology and applying it at workplace. PsyCap emerged as extending for recent another types of capital, such as human capital and social capital. It has been defined as “an individual’s positive psychological state of development". The PsyCap consist of four core constructs (self- efficacy, optimism, hope, and resilience). Each of the four components has considerable theorizing and researching that can contribute to developing an integrative theoretical foundation for PsyCap. But their combined motivational effects will be broader and more impactful than any one of t
... Show MoreThe problem of the present study lies in the challenges that college education especially that concerns the quality of college teachers performance and developing the level of educational process quality.
This study aimed at constructing a vision the researchers have constructed depending on the standards of performance quality represented by Deming's quality course. The researchers presented a number of skills that should be existed in the performance of college teacher through using the analytic and constructing approach in imagining this drawing to develop performance.
The study results represented by a number of efficiencies that college teachers shoul
... Show MoreThis paper deals with load-deflection behavior the jointed plain concrete pavement system using steel dowel bars as a mechanism to transmit load across the expansion joints. Experimentally, four models of the jointed plain concrete pavement system were made, each model consists of two slabs of plain concrete that connected together across expansion by two dowel bars and the concrete slab were supported by the subgrade soil. Two variables were dealt with, the first is diameter of dowel bar (12, 16 and 20 mm) and the second is type of the subgrade soil, two types of soil were used which classified according to the (AASHTO): Type I (A-6) and type II (A-7-6). Experimental results showed that increasing dowel bar diameter from 12 mm to 20 mm
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