تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The research entitled "the Iraqi Topics in International Arab Press" is an analytical study of two newspapers: Al-Arab and Al-Hayat published in London from September 1-30, 2013.
The Arab press is one of the cultural monuments Home stretches for culture and media of Arabs outside the Arab Homeland which made them international press targeting public Arab audience's not civil audiences in a particular country and formulating their contents on this basis taking into account intake affairs and issues that have been national or international.
Because of this international presence of the Arab press, these newspa
... Show MoreThe phenomenon of the social movements of researchers, based on the scope of their influence on political events, and the nature of the wide role played, and its ability to influence, through its activities and various activities and various. It has practiced its activities through new and non-traditional peaceful means, with clear slogans and specific objectives. And was able to mobilize activists from different strata of the Iraqi people, and its categories and social strata. As the demands focused on freedoms, rights, dignity and social justice
The topic of the research revolves around constructivist theory, which is one of the most important theories that added weight to the theoretical and epistemological field of international relations. The constructivist theory studies international relations from a completely different side of theories by focusing on the social aspects of international relations, and by looking at international relations as social constructs. Ideas, cultures, norms, standards and language play a major role in their formation. The study also examines the state of the war on terrorism as it represents one of the most international cases in which its composition and composition coincide with constructive ideas and a
... Show MoreBringing about urban, economic, and social changes in rural areas similar to those occurring in urban areas aims to reduce urban-rural disparities by providing services in those areas, decentralizing the management of these services, expanding citizen participation in local governance (decentralized administration), and achieving comprehensive development, developing and empowering localities, and keeping pace with new transformations and their impacts on the functions of the center and localities. In fact, the lack of clarity of the role of local government in planning and managing services has hindered development plans, and declined the level of services in rural areas, and has negative
... Show MoreArab-Islamic architecture has undergone a change at multiple levels affected by modern technology, so the research sought to address the role of contemporary technologies on a fundamental and fundamental component of architecture, which is the architectural space, what is known as the essence of architecture and its ultimate destination, with a focus on the architectural space in the architecture of the contemporary Arab Islamic mosque, because the mosque’s architecture is so important in Islamic law and the belief of the Muslim person himself, where the mosque is the functional style produced by the Islamic faith and embodied in it, whereas, knowing the levels of influence of contemporary technologies in the architectural spac
... Show MoreThe city has normal natural state, and the man has a usual movement, change and search for the new .Also, the city has a usual change and transform in its time, place and quality (sizes)structures. The city has a solid memory diving into the past and the future and reflects The real present, and this memory has a timing layers change into real materialistic place making the city has accumulated overlapping circles which is hard to break u , and it broadcasts the lockup timing density ,in which there is no visual record precisely, it is just like((the social record)) that evaluates the un visual relationships between the components and parts of the city (community and form) in a visual quiet exhibition and transform change inside.
... Show MoreThe study investigates the water quality of the Orontes River, which is considered one of the important water recourses in Syria, as it is used for drinking, irrigation, swimming and industrial needs. A database of 660 measurements for 13 parameters concentrations used, were taken from 11 monitoring points distributed along the Orontes River for a period of five years from 2015-2019, and to study the correlation between parameters and their impact on water quality, statistical analysis was applied using (SPSS) program. Cluster analysis was applied in order to classify the pollution areas along the river, and two groups were given: (low pollution - high pollution), where the areas were classified according to the sources of pollution to w
... Show MoreAbstract
Oil is considered a commodity and is still an important and prominent role in drawing and shaping the Iraqi economic scene. The revenues generated from the export of oil are considered the main source of the general budget in cash flows.
Since the revenues consist of quantity and price and the latter is an external factor which is difficult to predict, The effect of any commodity on its price, which is proven in the theory of micro-economic, but it is observed through the research that the response is slow, which means not to take advantage of the rise in prices, by increasing the quantity exported, the result of several facto
... Show MoreTime series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ
... Show MoreThis study aimed at highlighting the role of small and medium enterprises in bringing about economic development in Jordan. The study examined the impact of the number, size of investment and the number of jobs provided by these enterprises on the rate of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator for economic development. To achieve its objectives, the study adopted descriptive and quantitative analysis. A linear multi regression model was developed with a growth rate of GDP as dependent variable and the number of institutions, size of investment, and the number of job opportunities as independent variables. The study concluded that each increase by one small or medium enterprise lead to an increase in the rate of gr
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