تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The Strait of Malacca is one of the waterways of strategic, political, and economic importance. This strait has an increasing importance to its neighboring countries. The Strait of Malacca is very important for China, especially in the field of energy supply security, as the vast ma jority of energy supplies come to China through this strait. China seeks to ensure its security, especially in light of the cooperation of countries that look forward to this strait as well as the United States, and what the United States may cause to China, as many of them are at war with China over the China Sea, not to mention the countries that overlook it. The importance of the research emerges from the basic idea that the strategic importance of the Strait
... Show MoreA study worthy of study and objective analysis of the relationship of formal synthesis and innovative effectiveness in the design of modern women's fabrics, which deals with the first chapter the problem of research based on the following questions: (What role of innovative thinking in the formal synthesis of women's clothing designs Modern)
The research objectives included the following:
1 - defines the concept of innovative thinking and its effectiveness in design
2 - Reveal the role of innovative thinking in the formal synthesis of the designs of modern women's fabrics
The theoretical framework which included the following parts:.
1 - Innovative thinkin
... Show MoreCurrent research aims to know the personality traits of gifted
and has been the preparation , students in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan
pedagogy of talented ) 60 ( views of a sample of of the search tool of the
And has been applied to the . items ) 52 ( formed from the search tool , teachers
sample, and after treatment results reached statistical research results and the
researcher presented a number of recommendations including:
: Recommendations
1. Need for the development and rehabilitation of mentally gifted and structure
their characters in line and mental abilities and knowledge.
ams and psychological guidance for personal Preparation of scientific progr . 2
. development for the gifted
3. Work to
Islam is a religion that God wanted to be a platform emerges from human steps in various walks of devotional and economic life, etc, so it went Islam, guids human beings being as successor of God on earth.
The result that the worship of man for the Lord, which is one of the reconstruction of the land that is the secret of the sustainability of human life on the ground, often urged the Sunnah on the reconstruction of the earth and the importance of planting them and paired the reconstruction work that obtained by the human reward which would Allah his home in the Hereafter, There construction of the earth does not involve just planting them; it takes many forms Maintaining them and not marring the form of reconstruction and
... Show Moreهدف هذا البحث إلى قياس الإجهاد الرقمي لدى طلبة جامعة بغداد، والكشف عن الفروق في الإجهاد الرقمي بناءً على متغيرات الجنس (ذكر - أنثى)، والمرحلة الدراسية (أولى - رابعة)، والاختصاص (علمي - إنساني). تألفت عينة البحث من (200) طالبًا وطالبة من جامعة بغداد، وتم تطبيق مقياس" الإجهاد الرقمي "الذي تم إعداده من قبل الباحثة خصيصًا لهذا البحث. وتم اعتماد المنهج الوصفي التحليلي وبعد تطبيق مقياس البحث وتحليل النتائج بالوسائل الإحص
... Show MoreWrong behavioral deviations among youth witnessed an obvious growing, some of these deviations are, robbery, drug and internet addiction, and smoking. Additionally, intellectual extremism and the disrespect of the traditions and genuine customs, In light of this issue, the research aims to shed light on the educational and preventative role of the woman in protecting and immunizing children from the wrong behavioral deviations. The woman has a significant and influential role in the society in general and in her family, in particular to the responsibility lies on her. The research shed light on the manifestations of behavioral deviation in children and the mechanisms of prevention and treatment. The research concluded with a set of recom
... Show MoreBohemia AL-Kharab for Salah Salah Which contain 477Paper deal With History of Nathion This Novel Has a different styl from another IraQis Novels, this Novel has no conversation this is the basic reason Which hav this research .
The novel have 3 versions , the first one deal with explain the text in different ways , the second contains the realation ship between the text and the reader .
Which appear very clear in novel from up to down , whil the third one and the last explaine
The hermonologiq
The time bylose the relation in the novel.
The last thing is the conclusion which has the simple things conclude by the researcher from several readings to the novel
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... Show MoreFind goal to detect educational and technical staffing of style fiction in book reading school materials so determine the current research on the specific book reading in fourth grade of primary for the academic year 2014 issued by the Ministry of Education / Republic Iraq stories. Come in the importance of research to draw attention to the best of these stories and strengthened, and the negative deny it and claim his deportation in order to protect the thought of the learner, and the study may contribute to the development of some frameworks to write a story appropriate for elementary school. This McCann within the first chapter The second chapter included the theoretical framework has been contained on two main sections included the co
... Show MoreThe researchers aim of this research to analyze the reality of educational services in the city of Ramadi in order to reveal the efficiency of the spatial distribution of schools at the level of residential neighborhoods and the requirements of the population, based on the standards and indicators for this service.
The research problem related to the educational function of the city of Ramadi was formulated by asking about the efficiency of the spatial distribution of educational services and whether there is a balance in the distribution of schools to residential neighborhoods in a way that meets the requirements of the population, and in order to answer the research problem, the research hypothesis was formulated that there is
... Show MoreThe main purpose of the research is to demonstrate the importance of the insurance sector in the economy through its role in providing security for all economic sectors and thus stimulating the gross domestic product and reducing dependence on the output of the oil sector, which may expose the Iraqi economy to several problems and imbalances, I have found that there is a great weakness in the role of the insurance sector in Iraq at the level of government, companies and individuals, and the reason for this is the lack of policies supporting the insurance sector and the lack of work in the strategy of economic diversity and the decrease of security awareness by individuals so became Developing the sector to ensure the urgent need
... Show More