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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 31 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Geographical distribution efficiency of the civil defense centers in the city of Baghdad
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The city suffers from the weakness of the civil defense to provide services where there are clusters of residential Guy covered services for that requires the study of the geographic distribution of the civil defense centers in Baghdad care great because they take care of Protect the population and their own property and protect state institutions. Through a review of the problems faced it is expected that this study will help decision-makers to take appropriate steps to develop this service core

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reforming the insurance sector and its role in stimulation gross domestic product in Iraq for the period (2014-2018)
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The main purpose of the research is to demonstrate the importance of the insurance sector in the economy through its role in providing security for all economic sectors and thus stimulating the gross domestic product and reducing dependence on the output of the oil sector, which may expose the Iraqi economy to several problems and imbalances, I have found that there is a great weakness in the role of the insurance sector in Iraq at the level of government, companies and individuals, and the reason for this is the lack of policies supporting the insurance sector and the lack of work in the strategy of economic diversity and the decrease of security awareness by individuals so became Developing the sector to ensure the urgent need

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
اهمية المنهج القرآني في تخطيط المعالم العلمية للشخصية الاسلامية
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Human wealth is the most valuable wealth on the face of the earth, and building the intellectual, cultural and scientific human being is the greatest process carried out by all religions and philosophies at all times, and the divine law aimed at reforming the earth, including in order to preserve this great wealth, and to preserve its existential and qualitative entity

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 24 2009
Journal Name
Proceeding Of 3d Scientific Conference Of The College Of Science, University Of Baghdad 24 To 26 March 2009
Bacterial DNA induces inflammations in murine renal system
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Abstract Since unmethylated CpG motifs are more common in DNA from bacteria than vertebrates, and the unmethylated CpG motif has recently been reported to have stimulatory effects on lymphocytes, we speculated that bacterial DNA may induce inflammation in the urinary tract. To determine the role of bacterial DNA in lower UTI, we intraurethrally injected prokaryotic DNA (extracted from E. coli) in white mice and performed histopathological study for the kidneys and urinary bladders, 24 h after the exposure. The results showed infiltration of inflammatory cells, shrinkage of glomerulus and increase the capsular space, as well as edema formation in kidney tissues. Moreover, urinary bladder sections showed infiltration of inflammatory cells.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 14 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Education and Dramatic Recruitment of the Clown character in Child's Theater Shows
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The research is dedicated to study technical and dramatic recruitment of the clown character in Child's Theater Shows This research consist of four chapters ; first chapter is dealing with the problem of the research which defined by the following question :" Does the educational and dramatic recruitment of the clown character achieved in Child's Theater Shows?"The research is summarized in sets of points such as :•Make use of this research for the benefit of employees in the child's theater , especially directors, actors, technicians, workers and dress designers .•To benefit concerned educational institutions in the field of child's theater ; such as : child's culture house , theater & cinema office which are belonging to the ed

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Reasons modern and contemporary applications social and political engineering in the west
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The results of the historical review of social and political realities in general show that the practical and procedural applications of social engineering as a particular activity primarily of the social and political characteristics of man and society emerged in modern Western societies before appearing in other societies, These results also show that the emergence of these practical reasons and their applications in the West has also seen the emergence of modern theoretical foundations there, which seems to be the usual and usual context everywhere and in most or not all areas of life. Since the social and political dimensions are intertwined in human life and are in full, comprehensive and lasting harmony, interest in this geometry h

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Feb 05 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Kenyan foreign policy towards Somalia
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Abstract The Kenyan policy towards Somalia was influenced by a set of interrelated factors between the two countries and stemmed from the internal environment and most prominent: the geographical factor, ethnic, cultural, religious, political, economic and security, has been dominated by this policy since independence from the British colonial administration in the sixties of the last century and so far the nature of instability and tension, As the two countries are geographically contiguous and as security risks escalate, Kenya in 2011 rushed military action against Somalia, the first military action by Kenya outside its borders since independence.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Developed Materials and Techniques and Its Role in Exposing the Aesthetic Of Art Work
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This study is targeting the new developed materials and techniques and how they were affected by the scientific and technological developments that contributed to revelated new and varied developed materials and techniques. And from the artist’s formulation by using the materials and techniques and through its embodiment and sensor the values, artistic and aesthetic standards by breaking from the familiar in aesthetic contemporary way.
The studies on questioning what’s the role of The New Developed Materials and Techniques in exposing the aesthetic of the art work?

This study is to show the aesthetic of the art work through the new developed materials and techniques. Which was based on descriptive analyzing method and hig

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Dec 23 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
التفسير التفسير النبىي للقرآن الكريم وأحره في التفسير بالمأحىر
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The science of exegesis was started by the first teacher, the Holy Prophet, and then further developed in various methods and approaches through history

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Spatial analysis of primary and secondary education se rvices in the city of Ramadi
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The researchers aim of this research to analyze the reality of educational services in the city of Ramadi in order to reveal the efficiency of the spatial distribution of schools at the level of residential neighborhoods and the requirements of the population, based on the standards and indicators for this service.

The research problem related to the educational function of the city of Ramadi was formulated by asking about the efficiency of the spatial distribution of educational services and whether there is a balance in the distribution of schools to residential neighborhoods in a way that meets the requirements of the population, and in order to answer the research problem, the research hypothesis was formulated that there is

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