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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 11 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Turkish Policy Towards Africa in the Era of the Justice and Development Party
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Turkish policy towards Africa witnessed important developments over time that began before the Ottoman era and then developed during the Ottoman era when the Ottoman state played an important role in maintaining security by confronting Portuguese interventions in North Africa and sending military aid. Thus, the Ottoman state was able to develop its policy towards Africa for important considerations based mainly on the employment of the religious factor and the spread of Islam for the African acceptance of the Ottomans in the African territories and thus, achieve economic, strategic and political motives. Later, these relations declined in the Republican era due to the weak political and economic potential of Turkey on the one hand and th

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The regulatory climate in the government and private kindergarten children (Comparative Study)
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The research problem boils question is there in Riyadh organizational climate that enables them to do their work properly and whether there are differences between the government and private Riyadh depending on the organizational climate has sought Find measure: 1 regulatory climate for kindergarten 2. The difference between government and private Riyadh depending on the organizational climate. Limited research on the (200) parameter of the Riyadh government and private parameters for the year (20,142,015) In order to achieve the research objectives the researchers built a regulatory climate in accordance with the scientific steps to build a psychological scales measure After the formulation of climate regulation paragraphs of the (30) p

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
تَنویرُ الذَّاتِ بالمنتَخبَاتِ من مَسائِل النحوِ في سُورةِ المرسَلاتِ
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That grammatical studies, a phenomenon of the Arabic language,
enabling the researcher during his research of the development of sentences,
textual analysis, to be the result of that meaning semantic of a sentence, and
the statement of the function the individual, in terms of its meaning in
context, and a link to the meaning lexical give indications of the current
single, and correlation analysis II , in terms of significance with the current
status syntactic to that individual, and these of the most important features of
grammatical studies of modern, based on the relationship structure sense, and
the relationship of the meaning of the structure, we looked for Aiklo for such
a study, Koran, all meanings and co

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 12 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
البرجوازية البرجوازية المسلمة في الشرق الادنى خلال العصر العباسي
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The shortcomings of the Muslim regime were however, became more obvious in later periods. Under the first Abbasids, the Muslims bourgeoisies were still a new class, rising in the social hierarchy of the caliph empire. It became even powerful class and a factor to reckon with

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 16 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Addressing the Press Websites of Cyclone “Laban” Disaster in Yemen
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This study has sought to explore the Yemeni online news websites’ treatment of the tropical storm “Luban” which hit the coasts of al-Mahra governorate, and other parts of the Yemeni Eastern and Southern governorates in October 2018. The study also examined how the Yemeni news websites covered the disaster on the basis of the problematic situation model. The study’s findings revealed a form of logical balance in distributing the coverage of the disaster in its different phases. The coverage was a bit more focused on the disaster phase than the pre- and post-disaster phases. Additionally, the websites paid more attention to precautionary measures and the disaster’s humanitarian and material losses. The findings reveal that the ne

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Persuasive Methods of ISIS in Recruiting Individuals (Scientific Approach)
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The rapid success and the field dilation of Daish organization in both Iraq and Syria make academic institutes and research centers to pay attention to its propaganda means to gain its public opinion, and to further investigation about new methods employed by this organization to disseminate its messages to the public, particularly young people in large areas of the world. This organization uses traditional propaganda techniques on psychological war and its levels, social network sites and platforms that are distributed online. This study seeks to expose more persuasive methods used by the organization to gain multiple classes of society and to disseminate its extremist ideological thoughts. It also studies the psychological operation an

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Implications of Social Solidarity in Islam
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That interdependence in Islam is cooperation, love and fraternity and give and take
and let him look rich to the poor, every Muslim is himself liable hungry and poor no matter
how many races and colors. That interdependence is cruel, spending for God and is the
greatest supporter of charities that deal with housing, food and medicine for the unemployed
and needy, and social solidarity the consolidation of the values of brotherhood and love,
where is the greatest support of corrupt and concerted community and causes prosperity in
societies and has a significant impact on the unity of Muslims and their club and their
collection. The Islamic regime tops major systems in entrusting the achievement claimed the
lives of

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Spectrophotometric Determination of Salbutamol Sulphate and Isoxsuprine Hydrochloride in Pharmaceutical Formulations
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A simple, sensitive and accurate spectrophotometric method has been developed for the determination of salbutamol sulphate (SAB) and isoxsuprine hydrochloride (ISX) in pure and pharmaceutical dosage. The method involved oxidation of (SAB) and (ISX) with a known excess of N-bromosuccinamid in acidic medium, and subsequent occupation of unreacted oxidant in decolorization of Evans blue dye (EB). This, in the presence of SAB or ISX was rectilinear over the ranges 1.0-12.0, 1.0-11.0 µg/mL, with molar absorptivity 4.21×104 and 2.58×104 l.mol-1.cm-1 respectively. The developed method had been successfully applied for the determination of the studied drugs in their pharmaceutical dosage resulting i

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Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
حوليات أداب عين شمس
Peace building in Multiple Communities: South Africa is a case study
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المستخلص [English] Peace-building is a science that has its foundations and needs mechanisms, components, studies and plans based on the needs of the parties responsible for achieving peace and meeting the necessary needs of conflict societies, as it has become a goal sought by many local and regional actors and parties. The State of South Africa has realized this fact and has devoted space in its conception and planning to addressing the issues of conflict and war within the framework of its unitary work.Since security and stability in general seek to create peaceful and legal means through which existing problems can be expressed and addressed. The differences have varied to build peace and create cooperation between groups and th

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2024
Journal Name
مجلة نسق
الطرائق التربوية والنفسية في الوقاية من الإدمان على المخدرات
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