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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Employ GIS technology GIS in the educational process – learning
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Witnessing human societies with the turn of the century atheist twenty huge revolution in information , the result of scientific and technological developments rapidly in space science and communications , and that made the whole world is like a small village not linked by road as it was in ancient times, through the rapid transportation as was the case a few years ago , thanks to the remote sensing devices that roam in space observant everything on the ground , that the information networks that overflowed the world a tremendous amount of information provided for each inhabitants of the earth , which made this information requirement for human life and human survival and well-being , as it has allowed that information to humans opportun

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Existential Dilemma as a Philosophical Problem in The Beggar by Naguib Mahfouz
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     The Beggar (1965) is a story of isolation and depression which is written by the Egyptian novelist Naguib Mahfouz who is considered the father of Arabic Literature in the modern era. Specifically, he refers in his great novel called The Beggar that the man unable to achieve psychological revival after Nasser’s revolution, the man sacrificed his own job and his family for a desire that increases his feelings of alienation and depression which leads him to an emotional outcry against the indifferent. The main aim of the study highlights the concept of existential dilemma as a philosophical problem and personality crisis by the protagonist of The Beggar novel, Omer Al-Hamzawi who had acc

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 27 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Gender stereotyping and its relationship to the level of performance of public relations employees
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This article focuses on the relationship of gender to the effectiveness of both women and men in public relations work. Its aim is to identify the extent to which public relations employees are aware of the concept of gender, and to reveal the role of the institution in determining certain roles for both women and men at work, as well as to find out which employees are most effective in public relations activities within the institution.

The researcher uses public relations employees and officials in Iraqi ministries as a research sample to capture the point of view of both parties on the effectiveness of workers in public relations based on the definition of gender. The sample consists of 396 individuals

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2005
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
הריאליזם ביצירותיו של אהרן מגד "דוגמאות נבחרות מיצירותיו"
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הריאליזם הספרותי במשמעו הכללי מצייג אשר כל מה מציינת בה הספרות מציורים מדוייקים לסביבה ולכן
אדם. ויש להתחשב בפרטים המשותפים לחיים היומיומית.
האסכולה הריאליזטית מצטיינת בזיאנרים אין זוכים בם איזו אסכולה ספרותית אחרת . האסכולה הזאת
הופיעה בספרות העברית החדשה כתוצאה להשפעתה של הספרות העברית בספרות העולמית האחרת ,
והמספרים העבריים בתנוטה הספרותית החדשה השתדלו במאמצים גדולים למען להתפתח את התנועה הזאת

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of the Islamic Development Bank Group on Economic Capacity Building
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This paper reflects the evidence of the Islamic Development Bank's role in building human and institutional capacities in Member States and assisting governments in achieving economic development. The Bank's activities in the area of ​​capacity development are an important part in following up the economic developments, And help governments to build and formulate effective policies and institutions to implement more effective macro policies leading to better economic outcomes. It is therefore helpful to help Member States increase their resources, modernize their banking systems, establish effective legal frameworks and improve Reports on macroeconomic and financial statistics. The Bank has faced many challenges and risks tha

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The role of relational general policies in achieving the aims of sustainable development
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شهدت العالم منذ نهايات القرن الماضي وبدايات القرن الواحد والعشرين تطورات دراماتيكية على صعيد الادبيات التنموية ، اذ تحولت التنمية من المفهوم التقليدي الذي اهتم بالنمو الاقتصادي الى رؤية جديدة هي رؤية التنمية البشرية ومن ثم الى التنمية المستدامة التي اعطت للتنمية البعد الانساني وجعلت من مشكلات واحتياجات البشر منطلق لها لتحويل الفرد والمجتمع الى مرحلة جديدة تضمن له العيش الكريم وتحقق معه

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 31 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The semantic use of Emiri discourse in the story of Joseph
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   The term discourse is one of the terms that have attracted the attention of learners because it is indicative of the speech that is directly related to the addressee and the addressee through a common message between them. In the story of the study and the importance of research can be a widespread method, and then the choice of this story the story of Joseph (peace be upon him) in particular did not come The research presented in the introduction and the preamble and three topics, dealt with the definition of discourse, and the role of discourse in modern Quranic and linguistic studies, and in the first section dealt with the definition of the style of command language, terminology and command formu

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
In Silico Analysis of Regulatory Elements of the Vitamin D Receptor
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Vitamin D receptor (VDR) is a nuclear transcription factor that controls gene expression. Its impaired expression was found to be related to different diseases. VDR also acts as a regulator of different pathways including differentiation, inflammation, calcium and phosphate absorption, etc. but there is no sufficient knowledge about the regulation of the gene itself. Therefore, a better understanding of the genetic and epigenetic factors regulating the VDR may facilitate the improvement of strategies for the prevention and treatment of diseases associated with dysregulation of VDR. In the present investigation, a set of databases and methods were used to identify putative functional elements in the VDR locus. Histone modifications, CpG I

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 29 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Scientific values in the chemistry curriculum For the sixth grade scientific
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The goal of current research to know the according of scientific values in the curriculum of chemistry sixth - grade science To achieve this goal wasa to build aalistaofa scientifica values toa be included in the curriculum of chemistry sixth - grade science after seeing a group of literature and previous studies, the list presented to a group of arbitrators and specialists in educational and psychological sciences and methods of teaching science, and curricula and teaching methods , Arbitrators and specialists have expressed their views and comments on the tool, and that the list was formed in final form (9) values Head of scientific includes ( 35) sub - value, then the researcher analyzed the chemistry curriculum for sixth grade Scient

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Impact of Manager Roles in Achieving Organizational Excellence
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The current research problem is focused on the level of human resource managers' performance of their contemporary roles and the impact of this on achieving organizational excellence. The research aims at diagnosing and interpreting the nature of the relationship between the roles of human resource manager and organizational excellence. ), And oil companies located in Baghdad governorate. The research included (boards of directors), and collected data from (83) respondents representing the research community exclusively and comprehensively

represented in the positions of function (Directors-General, Associate Directors-General, heads of departments, divisions and divisions). (49) questions, as well as th

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