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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 08 2018
Journal Name
المجلة السياسية والدولية
مبادى القانون الطبيعي وتطوره في الفكر السياسي الغربي
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لقد أثارت فكرة القانون الطبيعي اهتمام الفقهاء والفلاسفة في الشرق والغرب ، القدامى منهم والمحدثون وشيدوا نظريات وأقاموا مناقشات حول فكرة القانون الطبيعي والطبيعة والعقل الطبيعي مما جعل هذه الفكرة تبدو إحدى المعطيات الأساسية للفكر الإنساني والتي لا يمكن تجاوزها في إي وقت أو في إي مكان. يبدو إن مفهوم القانون الطبيعي وان كان يعد من اعرق المفاهيم الفلسفية إلا انه يعد واحد من تلك المفاهيم التي وان احتفظت بجوهرها

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Banking Market & Its Effect To Fulfill Competitive Advantage For Banks
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As harmony with modernized environmental developments which were appeared within economical , banking areas with what accompanied of chances or challenges , the matter is required to face those modernizations , adaptation with them , as considering them strength points not weak points , and these developments banking marketing as it should be on the Iraqi public banks and private and hybrid to take advantage of this process to increase excellence and the expansion of the banking business opportunities, , enlarge in the banking businesses especially the banking transaction are distinguished by serious competition & strong between banks , and the final result is to serve Iraqi banking system & customers that the national economy ta

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Salience and Erasure in Environmental Advertisements: An Ecolinguistic Study
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Ecolinguistics is a twofold field in which ecology and language are its two major concerns. That is, this field is concerned with the way through which our thoughts, ideologies and the like influence the environment. The present study aims at analyzing (6) constructive and destructive environmental advertisements to find out how the techniques of erasure and salience operate in these types of advertisements. It studies the linguistic expressions that achieve these techniques in the constructive and destructive advertisements. The qualitative and quantitative methods are exploited in the current study. Analyzing (6) constructive and destructive environmental advertisements in accordance with Stibbe’s (2015) model of salience and erasure

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 19 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
Aesthetics configuration in the Assyrian winged bull )An analytical study(
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Subjected Find winged bull Assyrian monetary analysis in order to identify the formative relations in terms of percentages, movement and public swab for being aesthetic values ​​upon which the mechanisms of artistic composition, which did not give researchers artistic interest that affects the status of these sculptures and the like of the achievements of the Iraqi civilization in Assyria.

Resulting analysis to a number of the most important results, the percentages approved in the calculation of the parts to do with all when viewed status horizontal with a realistic formulas while in the case of considering frontally clear for Ras stylized proportions and head size larger in length, a ratio confirmed by previous studies, and

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Nov 11 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
اثر أثر الحضارة الإسلامية في الفكر السياسي الحديث
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There are many opinions about modern political thoughts for future , trying to draw a map of strong powers in the world and one of these thoughts is the conflict with civilizations. Both of these phenomena search for future and western civilization. It is important to mention that Islamic civilization has special place and clear effect through its conditions.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reducing Organizational Anomie in Light of Entrepreneurial Behavior
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The research aims to clarify the role of the main variable represented by the four dimensions of entrepreneurial behavior (creative, risk-taking, seizing opportunities, proactivity), in Reducing the dependent variable of organizational anomie with the dimensions (Organizational Normlessness, Organizational Cynicism, Organizational Valuelessness).

The experimental, analytical method was adopted in the completion of the research, and an intentional sample of (162) individuals in the administrative levels (higher and middle) in the factory was taken. The questionnaire was also adopted as the main tool, which

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jun 18 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الاحوال العامة للمدن الاسلامية في رحلة ابن بطوطة
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        This research shows Ibn Battuta's approach in his book Ibn Battuta's Journey that is called "Tuhfet Al-Anzar fi Ghera'ib Al-Amsar wa Eaja'ib-Al-Asfar", which explore the urban aspects of shops, markets, palaces, houses, mosques, monasteries and other antiquities within its pages, whether in terms of the site or in terms of studying it and the plans that explained the basis for the art and architecture of these cities, the intellectual dimensions in their civilizational history are clarified

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
مرجعية الموروث الشعري في شعر ابي إسحاق الغزي
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Literary heritage and its employment in poetry has received the attention of poets, and they have employed it in their literary texts, as this employment is one of the oldest phenomena in Arabic literature, that the inspiration of this heritage in texts through the overlap of their texts with previous texts, and no poet neglected the importance of this employment.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 26 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
أثر اللهجات العربية في إغناء ظاهرة الإتباع الحركي
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       In research it is an important phonemic change for the speaker to reach Ease and lightness ,wich is the kinetic follow-up , and we tried to collect the scattered matter in the various dialects

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 26 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
التجارة في البحرين من خلال كتب الرحالة والبلدانيين
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    Economic life in any of the countries depends mainly on economic activity due to its great role in meeting the needs and expenditures of the state . therefore ، Bahrain played a major role in commercial exchange operation ،  whether at home or abroad . whatever the matter

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