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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
كتب الخطط في مصر حتى نهاية العصر المملوكي
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Books of plans are a type of writing in Islamic history , its a type of work whose authors have strived to serve as a comprehensive historical encyclopedia, and they focused most of their attention on highlighting the various aspects of the history of Egypt

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
A solution to the Lifely Disobedience and its Effect to Stop Divorce
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Allah legislated marriage and made it dwelling, fellowship and mercy between
the two couples, Prophet Moh'd (peace of Allah and blessing be upon him) ordered a
husband to look after his wife, treat her with full charity and make love with here
every kindly. On the other hand, he ordered a wife to obey her husband and respect
him deeply, nevertheless, some obstacles may sometimes be appeared within the life
of their marriage, this may be caused by either a husband or a wife. This problem is
called lifely disobedience (AL-Noshooz).
In the other words, this means that a wife begins to hate her husband, refuse his orders
and not obey him.
In brief, they hate each other which leads to some marks appear in their
m

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 27 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Background of the siffing Arbitration Agreement
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It is important to set the background of stiffen arbitration agreement, to understand the real reasons of the fighting. When the Syrians began to lose, raised the masahif and made their announcement, most the qurrar, and so no need to continued fighting.

            In their view all that remained was the matter of drawing up formal peace with Ali, Muamiya; Ali would recognize as Amir al-muminin by both Syrian and Iraqis.

            The most of the Iraqisfavored settlement for different persons, for example-A'shath, the most power full of the clan leaders of Rabia, his interest by insuring that neither Ali nor Mu

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Fundamentalist graduation of customary celebrations and holidays in Islamic societies
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esearch Summary

Holidays and occasions in Islamic societies have a legal character and origin. Some of them are proven by the words and actions of the legislator, and some are within the scope of custom that is regulated by the honorable Sharia, and others are approved by scholars and people because of their connection, piety and charity.  It has a kind of good.

 One of the purposes of the noble Sharia is to glorify the honorable times associated with the blessed events, so that lessons and lessons may be recalled in them, and to activate the legitimate gifts in those events that develop in the individual, the family and the community the meanings of goodness and honor and all that is good and good.  Accord

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Some Thoughts on Greetings in English and Arabic
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The present study examines the main points of differences in the subject of greetings between the English language and the Arabic language. From the review of the related literature on greetings in both languages, it is found that Arabic greeting formulas are more elaborate than the English greetings, because of the differences in the social customs and the Arabic traditions and the Arabic culture. It is also found that Arabic greetings carry a religious meaning basing on the Islamic principle of “the same or more so”, which might lead to untranslatable loopholes when rendered in English.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 29 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
الضريبـــــــــــــة البيئيـــــــــة ودورها في الحد من التلوث البيئـــــــــــــــي
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Despite the growing interest in the subject of the environment and environmental pollution and the increasing of scientific studies to measure the environmental cost, but it still suffers shortcomings and incompleteness due to the difficulties facing the process of measuring of these costs , Due to lack of the possibility of determining the monetary value to it.

             The research began trying to develop solutions to the problem of the research , which is the actual measuring nothingness of environmental pollution for research sample plant and It’s comparison to local and international environmental pollution standards , for the purpose of adoption in the imposi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 15 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الانجازات العلمية للبيروني في كتب التراث العلمي العربي
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عاش البيروني في القرن الرابع الهجري الذي كان يمثل مثاراً للصراعات السياسية والفكرية، ومن خلال هذه الأوضاع المتأزمة برز البيروني كعلم من اعلام هذا القرن، ومن أبرز مفكري الحضارة العربية الاسلامية فنجده كتب في الرياضيات

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 09 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Narrative of Personal Experience Structure in Oprah's Show 2011
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This research attempts to investigate narrative structure in oral narrative particularly in Oprah's Show from a sociolinguistic viewpoint. Narrative is said to be universal in the sense that it is found in all times and places. There is no society or culture without narrative. Oral narrative is organized in a specific order. The research aims at studying and analyzing this order. In addition to that, it highlights the importance of narrative in conveying some moral messages to people who are listening to the story. The study is divided into two parts; theoretical and practical. The theoretical part draws on presenting a survey of literature which includes definitions and explanations of some related terms. The practical part is concerned

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 04 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
اسطورة اسطورة الطائر انزو في ضوء المصادر المسمارية
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There was an ancient Myth came from cuneiform texts which had written by ancient Iraqi , its hero is the goddess Nerottaa .it was appeared in two languages Sumerian and Akkadian .

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Parenthetical Constructions in English and Arabic: A Contrastive Study
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The present study attempts to give a detailed discussion and analysis of parenthetical constructions in English and Arabic, the aim being to pinpoint the points of similarity and difference between the two languages in this particular linguistic area.The study claims that various types of constructions in English and Arabic could be considered parenthetical; these include non-restrictive relative clauses, non-restrictive appositives, comment clauses, vocatives, interjections, among others. These are going to be identified, classified, and analyzed according to the Quirk grammar - the approach to grammatical description pioneered by Randolph Quirk and his associates, and published in a series of reference grammars during the 1970

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