تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Research summary
The Quranic discourse focused on a lot of vocabularies that carry goals that help man to acquire good, according to a methodology relies on adopting lofty ideas and values. The individual towards society, and the responsibility of society towards the individual. In our present age, the Muslim individual lives in a state of confrontation with deviant ideas, which unfortunately possess the means that make their impact great on society. The study concluded that the Holy Quran contains indicators and determinants of misguided and deviant thought, Which must be avoided because of the seriousness of its effects. Religion, in its general sense, represents a culture that transcends the limits of human ins
... Show MoreVarious semantic innovations and expansions have been tackled as factors and sources of neos. A variety of internal (linguistic) and external (extra-linguistic) motives and motifs leads to the appearance of new terms causing such changes in the political language. Some statesmen are productive in introducing new terms and creative in manipulating expressions and meanings.
New words are nonces that get metaphorical expansion for quadrilateral motivations resting on extra meaning innovation, new terms at the semantic expansions to be honed as neos. In tracing the phases of the semantic processes of neos and hulks, lexical and semantic changes might be of widening or narrowing of refe
... Show MoreThe issue of the other in the graphic design and specifically the advertising constitutes a cognitive study of the structure of the intellectual expansion in the cognitive and intellectual creative systems because of the implicit and declared embodiment it provides within the mechanisms of reading in the advertising design that appeared according to the other and through the embodiment of the textualism, the difference and the binary opposites is nothing but a reaction to the design thought and what constitutes of the manifestations of the other in advertising design. Based on the above, we review this study (Manifestations of the Other in Graphic Design) to clarify the topic through four chapters. The first chapter included the research
... Show MorePraise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and prayers and peace be upon our Prophet Muhammad and his family and companions. And after:
For one of the greatest blessings of God Almighty upon us is the blessing of Islam, which brought people from darkness to light and from injustice and fear to security, justice, stability, and the preservation of blood, symptoms, rights, and sacrifices, because pride, strength, and dignity are what God chose and pleases His servants - namely - adherence to the Islamic religion, and in light of This must be said that the private legal defense (pushing the person) with its Islamic provisions and legislations is one of the great aspects that guarantees the establishment of a safe
Pun concept the design discourse for the cover of magazines the researcher chose the German magazine Der Spiegel as a model for that, as the research problem was manifested by the following question: What are the representations of puns in the covers of the German magazine (Der Spiegel)? The researcher has identified four chapters for this study as follows: The first chapter is devoted to research procedures, and the theoretical framework, which is like the second chapter, included the literature related to the topic of research according to the two interlocutors. A review of the concept of pun in the field of typographic design and the functions that puns achieve in that field, leading to the third chapter, which included the analysis
... Show MoreWhat linguists mentioned about the infinitive and its use in the linguistic levels of speech, whether with its verb, or what was mentioned in the difference between the infinitive and the noun of the source, are matters that are related to the phenomenon of hearing in speech, a need necessitated by the nature of the linguistic law
The research intended to take into consideration the phenomena of employing the temporary employees through the business organization increasingly, which has become one of the most apparent features of the contemporary strategy of the human resources management. It depends on the analytical descrptive Approach to meet the research problem which has been focalized around the dispute praising regarding the phenomena of the temporary employment and its dimensions and challenges which can be faced by the management of human resources as a result .The importance of the research is represented as one of rare research which confronts to the phenomena of the temporary employment in the Iraqi business environment. The most prominent objec
... Show Moreالتجليات الاقتصادية والثقافية والاعلامية للعولمة في العالم الثالث
ينطبق مصطلح الفاعلين من غير الدول على جميع القوى أو المنظمات أو الجهات التي لا تؤسسها الدولة ولا تكون طرفاً فيها، ولها هويتها الخاصة، وتتمتع بإستقلال تام عن تمويل ومراقبة الحكومات، وتمتلك مواردها الخاصة التي تضمن لها تحقيق أهدافها في البيئة التي تنشط فيها. إن الفواعل من غير الدول بوصفها كيانات إجتماعية أو إقتصادية غير حكومية ، قد جاءت نتيجة التحول الحاصل في بنية النظام الدولي والسياسة الدولية بإتجاه النظام
... Show Moreتزداد أهمية وجود اللغة العربية على الشبكات الحاسوبية مع توجه المجتمع نحو مجتمع المعلومات, ونحو الاقتصاد المبني على المعرفة. ويصطلح عالمياً على هذا الوجود بكلمة المحتوى, فكيف يمكن أن نزيده