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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اسباب السرقة لدى تلاميذ المرحلة الابتدائية من وجهة نظر المعلمين والمعلمات في المدارس الابتدائية في مدينة المكلا بمحافظة حضرموت
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يهدف البحث الحالي التعرف على اسباب السرقة لدى تلاميذ المرحلة الابتدائية كما يراها معلموهم ومعلماتهم ، وعن الاساليب المتبعة في معالجة ظاهرة السرقة من قبلهم ، ولقد شملت عينة البحث على ( 200 ) فرداً من معلمي ومعلمات تلاميذ المرحلة الابتدائية في مدينة المكلا للعام الدراسي ( 2004 ـ 2005 ) ، وقد استخدمت الباحثة استبياناً أعدته كأداة للوصول الى اهداف البحث بعد ان تم التأكد من صدقه وثباته ، استخدمت الباحثة معادلة ارتب

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The approach of Al-Hafiz Ibn Al-Malqin, in his followings on the Nisaburi ruler, through the book Al-Badr Al-Munir in the graduation of hadiths of the great commentary
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Praise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and peace and blessings be upon our master Muhammad and his family and companions as follows:
   For God Almighty has swapped for every age a group of religious scholars who give news to the narrators, so that they can lie against the Sunnah of the Mustafa, who is among those who memorized Ibn Al-Mulqin, as he followed the ruler in his book Al-Badr Al-Munir in the Hadith of Al-Sharh Al-Kabeer, and our research included two topics, which we explained in the first topic: The sequels in which the teacher's son Al-Malqin disagreed, and we discussed in the second topic: the followings in which Ibn Al-Malqin agreed to rule.
   This research included important results, th

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The effect of urban obsolescence on the quality of the built environment for historical quarters
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             The centers of cities and historical quarter are exposed to a severe threat to the values of the physical and legal urban environment as a result of the value deterioration and the emergence, emergence and spread of new values on the intellectual and urban context, which generates the loss of the urban environment for its spatio-temporal continuity, flexibility, adaptation and continuity, and thus urban obsolescence, Hence the problem of the research in “the lack of comprehensiveness of studies on the phenomenon of urban obsolescence and its impact on the decline in the values of the quality of the built environment in historic

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
((The Mediator Role of Self Management on the RelationShip Between Work Stresses and Organizational Alienation))
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   The study aims to test the relationship of work pressure to its dimensions (role conflict, ambiguity of role, workload and nature of work) as an independent variable and its effect on organizational alienation by its dimensions (disability, lack of power, indifference, animosity, social isolation and self-alienation) (Restraint and confidence in negation, initiative, adaptation and living conscience) as a mediator variable, in some faculties of Baghdad University of Science (Medicine and Engineering) and Humanity (Education and Literature). The data was collected on the practical side, which was applied randomly (306) of the teachers and teachers of the colleges (56) items, which included the main research variables

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Using Brainstorming Technique on the Essay Writing and Self- regulation Learning of the Iraqi Secondary Students
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         This study investigated the effect of using brainstorming as a teaching technique on the students’ performance in writing different kinds of essays and self regulation among the secondary students. The total population of this study, consisted of (51) female students of the 5th Secondary grade in Al –kawarzmi School in Erbil during the academic year 2015-2016. The chosen sample consisted of 40 female students, has been divided into two groups. Each one consists of (20) students to represent the experimental group and the control one. Brainstorming technique is used to teach the experimental group, and the conventional method is used to teach the control group. The study inst

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational commitment and its role in enhancing the performance of employees : exploratory search of the views of a sample of managers and employees of the General Company for Dairy Products
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Expected to The organizational commitment by employees increases their loyalty towards their organization and thus contribute to enhancing their performance , therefore this study aimed to discover the relationship and the impact between the organizational commitment (emotional commitment, standard commitment, continuous commitment) and the performance of employees in the company researched, additional to know the available organizational commitment levels of employees in the company researched and its impact on the performance of employees, Research was conducted at the General Company for products in the dairy to achieve the goals of research has been developed questionnaire conation (22 ) items to collect data from the study s

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
knowledge strategic abilities And impact in the building of competitive advantage Field research the views of a sample of the administrative leaders of the Iraqi private banks
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The research synthesis variables of competitive advantage and the mechanism achieved by focusing on knowledge abilities and strategic of the administrative leadership, and governments and the developed countries took the racing frantically and my destiny to invest more money and resources to development of wealth and human knowledge is so choice investment winner always and who Aaikhyee never, because God Almighty give humans the abilities of all other creatures and that these abilities varying from person to person, there is the problem of search provoking questions about the essence of what it's about research and both sides theoretical and field, the objective of this research

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Crossref (1)
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of Instructional Health Educational Vascular Access on Hemodialysis Patients' Knowledge at Al-Hussein Teaching Hospital in AL-Nasiriyah City.
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Objectives: The study aims: (1) To determine effectiveness of instructional health education vascular access on hemodialysis patients' knowledge, (2) To find out the association between effects of instructional health education vascular access and demographic characteristics of (age, gender and educational level). Methodology: A quasi experimental study –control study design is carried out at AL-Hussein Teaching Hospital in AL-Nasiriyah City, from 3November,2015 to 2 June, 2016. A non-probability (Purposive sample) of (80) patients with vascular access devices on maintenance hemodialysis patients divided int

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 24 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Accounting For Investments In Joint Projects Accounting to the International Accounting Standard: An applied Study at the General Company for food Stuff Trading
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   As a result of the entry of  multinationals companies in Iraq for investing in the joint projects through conducting agreements and contracts for work on important and strategic projects to get the necessary funds and various experiences which characterize the foreign participant sides that Iraq currently needs them and because of the non-applying the accounting processing stipulated in the unified accounting system in addition to the absence of a local accounting bases as well as the default of the participant contracts on indicating the accounting methods about those projects which are considered one of the bases that enables auditors in the public sector to depend on it, thus the research paper deals with studying an

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of transparency on job satisfaction: An applied research in sample of national insurance companies
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Transparency considered being one of the modern administrational terms which started to be largely used in the last period, because of its political, economical, social and cultural dimensions. As well as, its administrational dimension that helps to create a work environment marked by order and flawless from wrong practices and Transparency provides credibility to the sides that pursue it in their practices, till it became a mean of distinction. The choice of the subject of the research ((Transparency and its effect on Level of Job satisfactions of Workers in General Insurance company)), which aims to measure the effect of Transparency in Level of Job satisfactions of Workers in Insurance company. Came in the time when many countries te

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