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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 17 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Media awareness and its role in building the student's personality
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The problem of the study crystallized in the following main question: What is the role of media awareness in building the student’s personality according to the opinions of a sample of middle school students? The importance of the research derives from the importance of media awareness being an important variable in building the student’s personality. The sample size was (50) students at Al-Kadhimiya Al-Sabahiya Preparatory School for Boys. In this research, a scale was used to measure the role of media awareness in building personality through (16) items on three axes (cognitive, skill, emotional), and the validity and reliability of this scale were extracted, and the results showed the following:

 

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 29 2021
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
اهل الذمة في كتاب زهر الاداب للقيرواني
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Alqairawany ensured that the book “kitab zahr aladab “referred to giving important in sign to the peaceful coexistence with which the people of non-Islamic

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الامانة الأمانة في نظريات الترجمة القديمة والحديثة
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Trust is undoubtedly one of the most important issues in the field of translation studies Therefore, the present study attempts to analyze historical and current theories of translation in the East and West, to specify the position of the Trust and its importance to translators and Translation scholars.

More important of this papers is show that the concept of trust is deferens to this translation theory and that, some believe that trust in translation is For the words quoted, Some people say they trust in quotes, and some neglect of both the target text and And the original value of the source text.

Keywords: translation, translatior,  trust, Source text, target text, Seizure

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The effect of the significance of the Qur'anic context in the allocation of the year
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Acting on the Holy Qur’an by contemplating its meanings, stopping at its commands and prohibitions, and everything in it that guides us to truth and mercy. The Holy Qur’an includes it for various purposes in one verse, and there is no doubt that this is part of the perfection of this great book, and one of the sciences of the fundamentalists is the indication of the context, and it is a great science of high rank, and it is one of the most important things that lead to the correct understanding of the miraculous and decisive book of God Almighty, and one of the best meanings of the Qur’an It was not from the context of the verses, and from here it can be said that the indication of the context is one of the origins of deriving lega

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2011
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
مفهوم الدولة واركانها في الفكر الاسلامي المعاصر
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تعددت آراء المفكرين الاسلاميين المعاصرين حول الدولة الاسلامية بعد سقوط الخلافة العثمانية بصورة خاصة نتيجة لتأثر هؤلاء المفكرين بالمفاهيم التي سادت في الثقافة الغربية ، ومنها مفهوم الدولة ، حيث لم يتطرق الفكر الاسلامي الى مناقشة مفهوم الدولة الاسلامية قبل هذه الفترة ، لان اهتمامهم كان منصبا بالتظير حول موضوع السلطة . وسيتم التطرق في هذا البحث لمفهوم الدولة لدى المفكرين الاسلاميين المعاصر

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
مجلة كلية الآداب
العمود الومضة وتجلياته في الشعر العراقي المعاصر
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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
اسلوبية التصوير في شعر التصوف قراءة نقدية
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Publication Date
Thu May 18 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Borrowing in a diwan Moon Tree for Nazik Angels
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The moon tree, the lover of the night, cholera, the sea changes its colors are poetic products left by the pioneer of free poetry, as many have called her. She used to write poetry and publish it in magazines and newspapers until she published it with collections that came into existence from an early age. Several factors helped her in that that contributed to the formation of her personality and the maturity of her talent, including factors Family, including environmental, and psychological, until she later became the focus of attention of many, so she became taught in the universities of London, and students stood by her method of writing free poetry, this poetic color that Badr Shaker Al-Sayyab participated in pioneering. Whoever exam

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 24 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The rality of urban management strategies in the city of Baghdad
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Several studies have indicated that more than 600 cities in the world (intermas of rapid growth and development) will generate about 60% of international economic growth between 2010 and 2025 . by 2025 , 66% of the worlds population will live in urban areas the management of cities will face challenges that accompany this increase in the population which requires preparing to face these challenges and problems and the need to provide the aim of the research to know the readiness of Baghdad city to implement the strategies of urban management throught on asmple representing the ( Advisiry group for the comprechnsive development plan for the city of Baghdad 2030 and its supporters ) in the municipality of Baghdad and the number of

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The wisdom of establishing the right by testimony in jurisprudence and law
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Abstract

Islam has been concerned with preserving and maintaining rights, so the provisions in which it is preserved are legislated. Among that  is the testimony that made it a way to prove the truth and obliges its bearer to fulfill right in order to preserve the right and establish justice and prevent injustices by defying conflict, and tyranny .

And while acknowledging that divine absolute wisdom that is the cause and origin of legal rulings is sufficient, it is obligatory to abide by its provisions and imposes obedience, surrender, contentment and work in accordance with its controls.

However, the realization of the defects behind the legislation in a comprehensive way that realizes the dev

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