تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Appearance of the Kurdish press in the Kurdish literature was affected by as set of both external and internal factors. The former was realized in the spreading of press and publications especially at the neighboring countries in the second half of the 19th century. The latter factors, external ones ,were concerned the political situations undergone by the Kurdish people who severely suffered injustice practiced by the Othman authority .All these reasons had driven the educated to migrate to search for more safe places to practice their cultural actions with absolute freedom. Consequently, the first newspaper was issued on 22/4/1898 in Cairo which pointed the birth of the Kurdish press inside and outside Kurdistan region which
... Show MoreWhat is meant by objectives: the purpose, secrets, judgment, and interests that the legislator set for each of its rulings is a doctrine and a law.
Faith is belief with certainty in God Almighty, and what is required of him in his divinity, lordship, names and attributes, belief in his angels, books, messengers, the Last Day and destiny, both good and bad.
And the purposes of faith are the wisdom and secrets contained in the Islamic faith and which achieve human well-being and happiness in the immediate and the future. And that the purposes of belief and faith are the essence of religion, rather it constitutes a basic pillar on which the basis of the intentional consideration as a whole, because the structure of worship i
... Show MorePraise be to God, and may blessings and peace be upon the Messenger of God, his family and companions, and from his family and after ...
It is the right of every nation to be proud of its heritage, science and civilization among the nations, taking pride in the efforts of its construction and the keenness of its scholars and dedication to serve their nation and their history, and from the great sciences that boast and honor our great nation and distinguish it over others the science of attribution and the preservation of the novel over generations and ages. The novel is preserved from the plagiarism of the nullified, the excess of the deceitful and the liars, and the science of isnad from religion as the scholars said, and without the
This research has been devoted to the study narratines of the metaphysical concepts in Egypt during the Mamluk era ( 648-923 AD/1250-1517 AH). The study consists of three sections and an introductionwhich highlights the study at that time for its great impaction public life in Egypt.
This paper deals with an important aspect of creativity in the poetry of Ibn Zaidoun, a senior poets Andalusians and writers
Means the current research study in the direction iconic structures plates Ottoman calligraphers , as they took turn in this area and because it excelled in the form of a strong incentive and motivation to seek calligraphers in this direction so as to simulate the skill of the artist and parallel to the side of his creativity as well.And iconography , RECEIVED of objective vision and aesthetic and semantic in the output of compositions written according to the specific significance and this has a clear impact on the propensity to develop technical and aesthetic and expressive in the output of the structure of synthetic iconography is limited by rules or building in the form of public panel linear . And that all forms , whether animal , h
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الى استخدام بحوث العمليات في اتخاذ القرارات الادارية لما لها من اهمية في مواكبة التطورات الحاصلة في مجال استراتيجيات الاعمال ونظم المعلوماتية وإدارة المعرفة في القرن الحالي، إذ لم تعد الأساليب التقليدية في اتخاذ القرارات الإدارية مجدية بعد ظهور توجهات حديثة في الإدارة تركز على ضرورة الاعتماد على الأساليب الكمية كبحوث العمليات, وقد تطور استخدام بحوث العمليات في السنوات الماضية بشكل كبير وأصبحت أ
... Show MoreThis study identified intellectual and applied research in key variables (Strategic Control and Strategic Pitfalls) through internal dimensions then founded the (Federal Board of Supreme Audit) is the good area for analyzing the relationship and effect between variables by (125) questionnaire selected from (148) was distributed to the top and middle management as a seniors in controlling action. Appropriate methods, statistical tools, and programs were used to enhance the basic outputs, represented as a set of Conclusions and recommendations from the real control work with a specificity of potential Pitfalls in the effectiveness impact by Strategic Control in other dimensions which Studied.
Interest in the teaching profession is one of the most important steps on the road to education reform to develop the quality of education is not only through the teacher's professional competencies required, interest in the teaching profession in any society stems from fingerprints left by the teacher on his behavior and morals and their minds and their personalities. Today we are going to provide scientific, technical and research is enormous, we need more powerful skills and ways of thinking that must be acquired by the teacher. The current search is gaining importance in terms of:
- This is the first of its kind on the researcher's knowledge _ which deals with the modern trends in t
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