تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract:
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The problem of the study is concerned with the work of The Iraqi Airways Company in political, economic, and social environment that suffers instability for many years. This has its negative outcomes regarding its decisions of providing services to its markets and customers as a result of the orientations, behavior, and marketing values the company management adopted. The aim of this study is to investigate the marketing philosophy adopted by the management and to identify the extent it suits the materialistic and the human capacities of the company and its current environmental circumstances within the marketing culture common to the thoughts and behaviors of the management and their employees. And in order to achiev
... Show MoreOne of the most important challenges facing project management at present time is to ensure project accomplishment in spite of the specific restrictions like the specific time the financial resources specialized to do the project ; which require an accurate consideration for time and cost . the modern village project (residential building aspect) is one of the great project that ministry of agriculture is trying to do Wasit governorate it is chosen as the work in this project is dilatory for that is being studied in term of some modern mathematical and scientific methods like critical path method (CPM)which is one of the project management and scheduling methods to know the time needed to accomplish residential building pro
... Show MoreThe current research aims to study (the effect of strategy of analysis - synthesis duality in the collection of scientific fourth stage students and high-order thinking in Biology material). For evidence the objective of the research, the researcher formulated the following two null hypotheses: 1. There is no significant difference at the statistical level (0.05) between the average of scores of the experimental group students that will study according to the dualism strategy of analysis and structure and the average of scores of the controlled group students that will study according to the normal way in the collection. 2. There is no significant difference at the statistical level (0.05) between the average of scores of the experimenta
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الى قياس مدى التطبيق والتبني للقيادة الملهمة في المنظمات العامة، وقد اشتقت مشكلة البحث النظرية من وجود فجوة معرفية وذلك لقلة الدراسات والبحوث التي تناولت متغير البحث بأبعاده (الرؤية المستقبلية، الثقة بالنفس، تمكين العاملين، ادارة التغيير)، واعتمد البحث المنهج التحليلي عن طريق استعمال الاستبانة في المنظمة التي تم اختيارها وذلك لكونها تعد من المنظمات الاساسية في تقديم الخدمات التعليمية المهمة في
... Show MoreThe research aims to develop a proposed mechanism for financial reporting on sustainable investment that takes the specificity of these investments.
To achieve this goal, the researcher used (what if scenario) where the future financial statements were prepared for the year 2026, after completion of the sustainable project and operation, as the project requires four years to be completed.
The researcher relied on the results of the researchers collected from various modern sources relevant to the research topic and published on the internet, and the financial data and information obtained to assess the reality of the company's activity and its environmental, social, and economic i
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to show the extent of the impact of administrative coordination on municipal performance after the state’s tendency to implement administrative decentralization and transfer of powers (administrative, legal, financial, and technical) from the Federal Ministry (construction, housing, municipalities, and public works) to local governments (governorates), to meet local needs, And since the municipality is considered one of the local administrative institutions and most of its goal is to provide increased municipal services to citizens due to population growth and urban expansion of cities by coordinating their actions using their powers, and in order to address gaps i
... Show MoreThe research aims at identifying the importance of scientific research for researchers and in creating new knowledge، development and utilization of mental and cognitive energies and developed them with the ability to research، extrapolation، meditation and then conclusion. The information was collected by interviewing the Secretary-General of the Central Library and by distributing questionnaire forms to the (33) teaching staff of the College of Higher Education. The responses of the society were analyzed the result and the recommendations were the most important 1. Information specialist and all employees of the administrators and technicians in the centers of information sources (libraries) and in the field are considered scientific r
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify the adequacy of accounting disclosure in granting bank financing in explaining the role of accounting disclosure in granting bank financing by linking the concepts of full, comprehensive and adequate disclosure to bank financing. The impact of full accounting disclosure on granting bank financing, the existence of an impact of comprehensive accounting disclosure on granting bank financing, the existence of an impact of adequate accounting disclosure on granting bank financing, and the research relied on the descriptive approach, the deductive and inductive approach, the inferential analytical approach, a
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