تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract
The resources-based introduction in the study of business organizations is increasingly dealing in the study of the human capacities and the best ways to develop them and changing the resources of the organization to be essential and competent to face the business challenges. Today’s organizations need crucial practices to face those challenges and the influences of those practices which take into consideration the importance of developing the entrepreneurship inside the organization. Those practices are called “High Performance Work Systems” which is denoted by “HPWS” and defined as the practices of human resources management which help in acquiring func
... Show MoreThis study aims to identify the impact of using the infrastructure of the Information Technology (IT) on the performance of human resources in the public universities. This process is done by doing research in the size, quality, and efficiency of the performance, also speed of achievement and simplification of procedures. Diyala University was chosen for the diagnosis through the opinions and attitudes of its employees. Consequently, suggestions that contribute to improve the performance of the employees and thus its overall performance are obtained. Another objective of this study is identifying the human resources which are currently used in academic institutions and educational services systems because the significant role of th
... Show MoreTesting the current research and effect correlation between Transformational leadership variable manufacturing and variable administrative creativity, as it represented the research problem the extent of the role of transformational leadership in achieving administrative creativity in the office of the Iraqi Ministry of Education, it has been used questionnaire as a tool for data collection, as is the distribution (32) for the sample of the research, which was selected intentional and as director general and assistant general manager and director and deputy director and head of the Division, and represented the premise of the major search existence of liaison and the impact of significantly between transformational leadership and achieve
... Show MoreThe topic of the partnership between the public and private sectors with great interest by researchers around the world after making sure that the process of economic and social development depends on a combination of resources and energies and expertise of both the public and private sectors in the creation and operation of the various projects , the economic development of the growing proved the failure of both sectors in achieving greater economic growth Klaaly separately in many countries , especially developing countries with a socialist approach , led one way or another to adopt most of the countries economic reform programs promoted by international organizations and institutions ( such as the IMF and the World Bank ) of i
... Show MoreThe research deal with three variables of exceptional importance to organization business firms. These variables are emotional intelligence, transformational leadership, and organizational performance. The aim of this research is to determine the effect of emotional intelligence and transformational leadership on organizational performance at the banking sector, which is represented by Al-Rafidain Bank. The problem of the research is expressed by many questions related with the nature of the interrelationships and effects among research’s variables. The researcher has depended upon the descriptions - analytical approach. on a random sample of (80 ) managers
... Show MoreAbstract:
This study seeks to shed light on the important processes are linked to the impact of accounting information on the behavior of producer and user of information and are urging informational and informational use. That accounting as a system of accounting information and functions of the delivery of information to decision makers Under behavioral entrance to the formulation of accounting theory should be taken into account Othertlk accounting information in the behavior of the decision maker which requires an explanation of human behavior and predictable.
On the other hand that the accounting information that should be delivered to the decision maker will affect your beha
... Show MoreThe Abbasid period is one of the most fertile Islamic ages attention to the bookcases have been prominent of each of the caliphs, ministers and dignitaries acquisition of books and stop in the coffers of public books, so that the largest number of students of science to see them. Baghdad's portfolio of scientific status in the late Abbasid times, which was characterized by weakness and division
The current research aims to find out the role of transformational leadership in decision-making wise, to cope with the decline in some of the banking performance indicators as a result of the absence of the modern concept of the leadership of those so-called B (Transformational Leadership) and preventing benefit from the advantages in the banks, and I test the research on a sample of the Iraqi private banks through applied to a sample (77) Mdermvud and Associate Director and Advisor to the Chairman of the Department, the distributors (7) banks, and used the head of the questionnaire as a tool to collect data and information. For the purpose of access to the results, the research sought to test two hypotheses two main hypotheses sub pop
... Show MoreThis research paper studies the alienation of the intellectuals in the modern novel through the study of two alienated characters, John Marcher in Henry James's The Beast in the Jungle, and Mr. Duffy in James's Joyce's "A Painful Case." As a result of the complexity of life in the industrial societies, the individuals, especially the intellectual ones, feel themselves unable to integrate into social life; they fear society and feel that it endangers their individuality and independence. Thus, these characters live on the fringe of the societ
... Show MoreAbstract:
The research aims to identify how to audit potential liabilities and contingent liabilities in light of the pandemic and its reflection on the auditor's report. The research problem is represented by the complexity of the process of checking potential liabilities and contingent liabilities in insurance companies, which was negatively reflected in the auditor's neutral technical opinion. The researchers hypothesize that auditing potential liabilities and contingent liabilities in light of the Corona pandemic is positively reflected in the auditor's report. The research concludes that the process of checking potential liabilities and contingent liabilities is
... Show More