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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Selection of the initial value of the time series generating the first-order self-regression model in simulation modeAnd their impact on the accuracy of the model
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In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method  and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model  first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.

                  

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 29 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Surface Roughness Prediction for Steel 304 In Edm Using Response Graph Modeling
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Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) is a non-traditional cutting technique for metals removing which is relied upon the basic fact that negligible tool force is produced during the machining process. Also, electrical discharge machining is used in manufacturing very hard materials that are electrically conductive. Regarding the electrical discharge machining procedure, the most significant factor of the cutting parameter is the surface roughness (Ra). Conventional try and error method is time consuming as well as high cost. The purpose of the present research is to develop a mathematical model using response graph modeling (RGM). The impact of various parameters such as (current, pulsation on time and pulsation off time) are studied on

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 29 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Omani Sultanate of Zanzibar between Unity and Separation for the Period between (1223-1275 AH/ 1806-1861 A)
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Sultan Said bin Sultan bin Ahmed bin Said Al-Busaidi (1223-1273 AH / 1806-1856 AD) was able to rule Oman and Zanzibar in a unified Arab-African state during his reign. However, it was separated for several reasons. Thus, the study aims to clarify the efforts made by Sultan Said for annexing Zanzibar to Oman, establishing the Arab-African Sultanate, and shedding light on the role played by Britain in dividing the Arab-African Sultanate and separating Zanzibar from the Omani rule in (1275 AH-1861 AD). The study has adopted the historical descriptive analytical approach. The study has reached several conclusions, such as: The economic motivators  were the most important factors that pushed Sultan Said to move his capital from Muscat to

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Role of statement of cash flow in forecasting in the global financial crisis 2008: An analytical study for The American Company (Freddie Mac)
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On of the direct causes which led to the global financial crisis 2008 is decrease or collapse in liquidity of large financial institutions which is reflected on investments of a considerable number of institutions and persons.

This study aim's through out its three sections to explain the disclosure level of financial institutions which affected by Financial Crisis from liquidity information which explained in the statement of cash flow according to Timeliness and Completeness.

The study concluded an important result the company of research sample was disclosure in Timeliness and Completeness from all of accounting information is related in liquidity or that related in result of operations and financial position. The more

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
EVALUATION OF SPORTS AWARENESS AMONG WOMEN AT THE UNIVERSITY OF BAGHDAD FOR THE PERIOD 2011-2016 AND STUDY THE FACTORS AFFECTING THEIR PARTICIPATION IN SPORTS ACTIVITIES: EVALUATION OF SPORTS AWARENESS AMONG WOMEN AT THE UNIVERSITY OF BAGHDAD FOR THE PERIOD 2011-2016 AND STUDY THE FACTORS AFFECTING THEIR PARTICIPATION IN SPORTS ACTIVITIES
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The exercise of activities and sports are of great importance to public health and to maintain the ideal health weight as well as the psychological and mental comfort of humans. The aim of this study is to determine the contribution and participation of educated females in physical activities at the University of Baghdad hall for the years 2011-2016, and to show the factors that influence women's contribution to physical activities at the university by selecting 100 students of males and 100 females' students randomly. During the questioning questions and statistical analysis of the questioning to find out the reasons for the discouraging contribution of the women to the various physical activities and try to find solutions and r

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
The The Application of Virtual Reality to (Mechatronics Engineering) by Creating an Articulated Robotic Work Cell Using EON Reality V9.22.24.24477
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Virtual reality, VR, offers many benefits to technical education, including the delivery of information through multiple active channels, the addressing of different learning styles, and experiential-based learning. This paper presents work performed by the authors to apply VR to engineering education, in three broad project areas: virtual robotic learning, virtual mechatronics laboratory, and a virtual manufacturing platform. The first area provides guided exploration of domains otherwise inaccessible, such as the robotic cell components, robotic kinematics and work envelope.  The second promotes mechatronics learning and guidance for new mechatronics engineers when dealing with robots in a safe and interactive manner. And the thir

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 25 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Legal Sciences
The Principle of Prohibiting the Diversion of the Natural Course of International River Waters
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The research deals with the principle of the prohibition of international waterway diversion in the law of international watercourses. The research reviews individual and collective doctrinal efforts that have touched upon the principle as an internationally wrongful act because of its serious damage and consequences for downstream States. The research addresses the nature of the principle of the prohibition of diversion of international watercourses; its various effects; principles of international law establishing the principle of prohibition of diversion; and its application in State practice and international justice. This principle has been enshrined in most international treaties and judicial decisions. The principle of prohibition

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
International rights to enhance the active participation of Iraqi youth
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After the democratic transformation in 2003 in Iraq, young people waited a lot to take their real opportunity to participate in politics, but most of the laws regulating political and electoral work have been unfair to young people, despite developments in laws and legislation, but opportunities did not allow young people to participate in politics, which was reflected It negatively affected their participation in voting and nomination, and even their assumption of public office and positions, which is why they complained about the ruling class and the political system through protests, or when they refused to vote, and this is reflected in the recent parliamentary elections and low participation rates

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role innovative leadership in administrative empowerment (Study analysis of the views of a sample of decision makers in the General Company for Food Industries(
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 Abstract

The objective of the research is to identify the role of innovative leadership in achieving the dimensions of administrative empowerment in the company for the public of food industries. The various variables have shown the importance of innovative leadership to achieve the dimensions of administrative empowerment in both international and local companies. Administrative Empowerment "In order to answer this question, a virtual model was developed to reflect the relationship and impact between innovative leadership and administrative empowerment. The research was based on the analytical descriptive approach.  the research community, The company represented the general company for food industries, retrie

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 02 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE RESPONSIBILITY OF INDEPENDENT IRAQI NEWSPAPERS IN PROMOTING THE VALUES OF CITIZENSHIP AND NATIONAL BELONGING IN THE SOCIETY: (An Analytical Study in the Opinion Articles in the Newspapers of Al-Sabah Al-Jadeed and Al-Mada)
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The research problem stems from a chief question: “What is the nature of the responsibility that «Al-Sabah Al-Jadeed» and «Al-Mada» Newspapers have undertaken in promoting the values of citizenship and national belonging in the society? The research aims to achieve a number of goals, including: Determining the most prominent themes that were emphasized in the opinion articles in these two newspapers within the framework of the responsibility of promoting the values ​​of citizenship and national belonging in society, and revealing the most prominent topics that were discussed in opinion articles in the two sample newspapers regarding the promotion of the mentioned values. This research is a desc

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