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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Methods of forecasting demandOn the blood substanceApplied study at the National Blood Transfusion Center
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The current research deals with short term forecasting of demand on Blood material, and its' problem represented by increasing of forecast' errors in The National Center for Blood Transfusion because using inappropriate method of forecasting by Centers' management, represented with Naive Model. The importance of research represented by the great affect for forecasts accuracy on operational performance for health care organizations, and necessity of providing blood material with desired quantity and in suitable time. The literatures deal with subject of short term forecasting of demand with using the time series models in order to getting of accuracy results, because depending these models on data of last demand, that is being sta

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Effectiveness of the self-questioning strategy in the achievement of the third stage Institutes of teacher preparation and decision - making in Chemistry
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This research aims to find out "the effectiveness of the self-questioning strategy in the achievement of students Phase III institutes of teacher preparation and decision-making in chemistry." The researcher follows approach quasi-experimental with a post-test, and the sample consisted of (27) from " Teachers Training Institute-AL-Byaa "in Directorate of Education Baghdad Karkh / 2 students divided into two unequal groups: experimental its number (14) students studied using reciprocal teaching strategy and control its number (13) students have studied in the usual way.The two groups were equivalent extraneous variables.

The researcher was prepare achievement test consist of 40 items was the adoption of a measure of decision-makin

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 02 2021
Journal Name
مجلة بحوث الشرق الأوسط
Iraqi women's participation in athletics in the Arab Games from 1948 to 2017 and the results achieved.
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This study dealt with the presentation and documentation of the Iraqi women's participations in athletics in the Arab sports courses since the establishment of the Federation of Athletics in 1948 to 2017 as well as analysis of the results achieved for these participations and discuss the reasons for not participating in some of these courses and the researchers try to show the distinct role of Iraqi athletes, And their active contribution to these courses to represent the country as well as to promote the sports reality of Iraqi women compared to their Arab sisters, whose names have become a symbol of every Arab woman and therefore benefit from the experience of the Arab teams In athletics for women.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Wavelength Division Multiplexing Passive Optical Network modeling Using Optical System Simulator
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Abstract

Due to the continuing demand for larger bandwidth, the optical transport becoming general in the access network. Using optical fiber technologies, the communications infrastructure becomes powerful, providing very high speeds to transfer a high capacity of data. Existing telecommunications infrastructures is currently widely used Passive Optical Network that apply Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) and is awaited to play an important role in the future Internet supporting a large diversity of services and next generation networks. This paper presents a design of WDM-PON network, the simulation and analysis of transmission parameters in the Optisystem 7.0 environment for bidirectional traffic. The sim

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 01 2010
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Modeling and Simulation of Sensorless Speed Control of a Buck Converter Controlled Dc Motor
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This paper investigate a sensorless speed control of a separately excited dc motor fed from a buck type dc-dc converter. The control system is designed in digital technique by using a two dimension look-up table. The performance of the drive system was evaluated by digital simulation using Simulink toolbox of Matlab.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Analysis of Errors Made by Iraqi Students in Writing
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Writing plays an effective role in developing one's thinking and
enhancing Learning. It is, in fact, a means of widening one's own views about
the world for the numerous uses that it can serve (Samuel, 1988:28).
In regard to the unquestionable significance of writing in the teaching –
Learning process, the traditional approach seems to be far from being able to
put such significance into practice. Traditionalists give priority to formulating
students' ideas before using prescribed rhetorical framework and then
submitting the written product for grading. Emphasis is, therefore, limited to the
prewriting stage where a certain topic is explored, and the role of the teacher is
confined to assigning the topic and

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
دور التخطيط التربوي في مواجهة التحديات التي تواجه الاسرة العراقية
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تواجه المجتمعات مشكلات متعددة أجتماعية وأقتصادية وثقافية تنعكس على التعليم فتزيد من مشكلاته و خاصة  في عصر يتزايد فيه عدد السكان وبالمقابل يتزايد الطلب على التعليم ، لذلك يصبح التخطيط التربوي ضرورة ملحة للدول النامية أذ أن قطاع التربية والتعليم يعد من أهم قطاعات التنمية في تلك الدول ,ولكي تستطيع  التربية أن تسهم في قطاعات التنمية قي تلك الدول الشاملة يجب أن تتصف بالجودة في كل عناصرها ومكوناتها وان

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
المشكلات التي تواجه الطلبة المتفوقين دراسيا في المدرس الثانوية الاعتيادية
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تولي المجتمعات المتقدمة اجتماعياً واقتصاديا وثقافيا وعلميا اهتماما بارزا للعنصر البشري واستثماره على أفضل صورة ممكنة لتحقيق التقدم والرفاهية لتلك المجتمعات وللأفراد على حد سواء , وتحتل تنمية الثروة العقلية واستثمارها محل الصدارة حيث يبذل اهتمام خاص للكشف عن المواهب والكفاءات المبدعة وتنميتها وتوجيهها ورعايتها علميا وتربويا ومهنيا وذلك لان العنصر البشري يعد جزءا لا يتجزأ من الثروة القومية للأمة حيث

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 09 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE PREVAILING SCIENTIFIC VALUES IN CHILDREN'S PROGRAMS PROVIDED BY MBC3
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The main problem of this research titled (the prevailing scientific values in children's programs provided by the channel (mbc3) is the disclosure of the scientific values that are included in the children's program in the mbc3 channel) which are directed to an important group of society, which is the category of children who spend long hours in front of TV screens to watch these programs, and therefore they acquire many values that can replace fixed values, such as social, moral, religious, etc., and the content analysis method has been used to analyze children's programs presented by mbc3 channel), and the research has reached a number of The results can be summarized b To come:

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Morphological, Molecular and Pollen Grain Investigations of Salix Species in Egypt
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Genus Salix is among family Salicaceae, distributing in the northern hemisphere. It is represented in Egypt by two species (Salix mucronata and Salix tetrasperma). The classification of Salix at the generic and infra-generic levels is still outstanding. We have agreed to list the Egyptian species of this genus. We collected them during field trips to most Egyptian habitats; fresh and herbarium specimens were subjected to taxonomic revision based on morphological characters; scanning electron microscope (SEM) for pollen grains; isozyme analysis using esterase and peroxidase enzymes and genetic diversity using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD). We recorded that both sexes of S.

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