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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
خزائن خزائن كتب المساجد والأربطة البغدادية في كتاب تلخيص مجمع الآداب في معجم الألقاب لابن الفوطي(ت723هـ/1323م)
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The Abbasid period is one of the most fertile Islamic ages attention to the bookcases have been prominent of each of the caliphs, ministers and dignitaries acquisition of books and stop in the coffers of public books, so that the largest number of students of science to see them. Baghdad's portfolio of scientific status in the late Abbasid times, which was characterized by weakness and division

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflection of applying the requirement of IFRS 9 regards impairment of Banks loans on earning management in Iraqi Banks
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Impairment of financial assets defined according to IFRS 9 as the difference between all contractual cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and all the cash flows that the entity expects to receive, the entity should estimates all the cash flows through looking to the contract terms during the life time period of the assets or for shorter period if possible, the cash flow should include the amounts of selling any collateral taken or any other enhancement. On the other hand, the Central bank of Iraq guidelines regards impairment differ from the IFRS 9 that’s does not consider the collateral value on calculating the impairment that’s effects on the net profit through recognizing exaggerated loss an

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of Organizational Creativity in Enhancing Knowledge Management Processes: survey study for a sample of academic staff members at the Technical College of management / Baghdad)
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In many organizations, employees who have high mental skills are the main source of organizational creativity. When a firm does not put creativity as a goal, cannot stand solid against the competition. Nowadays, knowledge is the path to discover the innovation and creativity aspects, This can assist the firm to stand face to face with competition in the market. The importance of this research comes from detecting and knowing the relation between creativity and knowledge to know and detect the influence of organizational creativity on backing the management of knowledge and determine the final results. The problem of research is to trace the role of organizational creativity on knowledge management processes in order to enable the

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
The Effect of Nurses Psychological Empowerment on Organizational Climate in Primary Health Care Centers in Kirkuk Governorate
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Abstract

Objective(s): To evaluate the level of Psychological Empowerment among Nurses as perceived by their Point of View, and identify the differences in nurses' Psychological Empowerment with regard to age, gender, graduation level, and years of work employment. 

Methodology: A descriptive analytic design was conducted on nurses in Psycho-social health Units in Primary Health Care Centers in Kirkuk Governorate, to achieve the objectives of the study. A convenient (non-probability) sample of 84 nurses was selected. The data collected through self-report method for the period from 25th August to 10th October 2022. The questionnaire was adopted

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare between simex and Quassi-likelihood methods in estimation of regression function in the presence of measurement error
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       In recent years, the attention of researchers has increased of semi-parametric regression models, because it is possible to integrate the parametric and non-parametric regression models in one and then form a regression model has the potential to deal with the cruse of dimensionality in non-parametric models that occurs through the increasing of explanatory variables. Involved in the analysis and then decreasing the accuracy of the estimation. As well as the privilege of this type of model with flexibility in the application field compared to the parametric models which comply with certain conditions such as knowledge of the distribution of errors or the parametric models may

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Authority control and its role in uniting old arabic authors entries at the Central Library of the University of Baghdad and the Al-Mustansiriya: A Comparative Study
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The research aims to identify the positives formulation entrances authors depending on the setting retaining the names of the authors of Arab veterans and cons of setting the entrances to Arab authors ancient depending on the nickname by desktop diligence without reference to a setting retaining the potential to benefit other libraries disciple of retaining existing in sober university libraries. Use the survey method and adopted a questionnaire distributed to the research sample consisting of employees working in the libraries in question and the total number of forms that have been distributed (50) form .tousel search phrase conclusions from them .

1-The lack of authority control depends on it to find a

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Harnessing Innovative Solutions for Achieving Continuous Quality Improvement Requirements in Water Treatment Plants: A Case Study of Continuous Quality Improvement in Baghdad Water Authority.
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Abstract

This Research aims for harnessing critical and innovative thinking approaches besides innovative problem solving tools in pursuing continual quality improvement initiatives for the benefit of achieving operations results effectively in water treatment plants in Baghdad Water Authority. Case study has been used in fulfilling this research in the sadr city water treatment plant, which was chosen as a study sample as it facilitates describing and analyzing its current operational situation, collecting and analyzing its own data, in order to get its own desired improvement opportunity be done. Many statistical means and visual thinking promoting methods has been used to fulfill research task.

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The use of IT infrastructure and its impact on the performance of human resources in public universities: A field study at the University of Diyala
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This study aims to identify the impact of using the infrastructure of the Information Technology (IT) on the performance of human resources in the public universities. This process is done by doing research in the size, quality, and efficiency of the performance, also speed of achievement and simplification of procedures. Diyala University was chosen for the diagnosis through the opinions and attitudes of its employees.  Consequently, suggestions that contribute to improve the performance of the employees and thus its overall performance are obtained. Another objective of this study is identifying the human resources which are currently used in academic institutions and educational services systems because the significant role of th

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Repetition in Bushra Al Bustany Poetry: A Stylistic Study
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يعد التكرار من الظواهر الاسلوبية التي اتخذت دورها في بناء النص الشعري الحديث ويقوم على جملة من الاختيارات الاسلوبية لمادة دون أخرى ولصياغة لغوية دون سواها ، مما  يكشف في النهاية عن سرّ ميل هذا النص الشعري أو ذاك لهذا النمط الاسلوبي دون غيره ، وعلى الرغم من ان التكرار يعد مسألة عامة وشائعة في العمل الأدبي ، فأن الاهتمام بهذا الجانب من المنهج الاسلوبي يأتي من جهة كونه مهيمناً له ايحاءاته ودلال

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 23 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
جغرافية جغرافية المدن في كتب التراث الجغرافي
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The Heritage geographical Arab-Muslim of great value in the history of the evolution of thought geographical The themes of cities, like other subjects heritage books geographical Islamic related to geography descriptive and regional were subject to the style of Arabic writing,

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