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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Means of Arguments in Bank's Annual Reports
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In line with the most recent trends in genre analysis (Swales, 1990; Bahatia,
1993) and discourse studies on business communication (Dudley-Evans and St.
John, 1998;Bargiela-Chiappini, F. and C. Nickerson, 1999, the article focuses on a
particular financial genre, Bank's Annual Reports (ARs). More in detail, in contrast
in widespread claim about the purely financial and informative nature of ARs,
addressing experts only, this paper aims at illustrating in accordance with Bexley
and Hynes (2003), and Burrough's (1986) considerations, that those reports
endeavour to promote the company image and to leave a positive impression on
readers. Generally speaking, companies communicate because they exist: they have
a na

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Performance Assessment of Pile Embedded in Expansive Soil
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An evaluation for the performance of model pile embedded in expansive soil was investigated. An extensive testing program was planned to achieve the purpose of this research. Therefore, special manufactured system was prepared for studying the behavior of model pile having different length to diameter ratios (L/D). Two types of piles were used in this research, straight shaft and under reamed piles. The effect of model pile type, L/D ratio and number of wetting drying cycles were studied. It is observed that significant reductions in pile movement when under   reamed piles were considered. A proposed design charts was presented for straight shaft and under reamed piles to estimate the length of both types of piles that is requi

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
بزووتنةوةى (روانـــــطة) قؤناغيَكى نويَي شيعرى كوردى Rwanga Movement: a New Stage of Kurdish Poetry
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Rwanga (view) movement is a new Kurdish poetry movement. Some poets and modern storywriters published a manifest in 1970. They have made a group of changes in the content and appearance of Kurdish poetry. They were under the influence of western literature schools such as Surrealism, Dadaism and Existentialism. Likewise, the impact of the new Arabic literature that appeared by the end of 1960s on them was obvious as they were imitating such literatures. Nevertheless, the condition of Kurdistan at that time was in need of a new literature to express that new stage. Sherko Bekas was one of those poets who became the dynamo of the poetic movement in which the rebellion spirit was embodied in the modern way of dealing with culture, rhyme, rh

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
Virtual reality and its impact on the industrial product
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The current study investigates the impact of virtual reality technology on industrial product design. The focus of this study is on the development of industrial products that utilize virtual reality technology, specifically examining the effects of this technology on the visual and design aspects of these products. The aim is to continuously improve the functionality of industrial products and enhance the user experience through virtual reality integration.
The first chapter of the study addresses the research problem, which centers around exploring the technological influence of virtual reality used in industrial products and understanding the functionalities it brings to the design process. Virtual reality technology facilitates th

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 05 2024
Journal Name
Al-academy
Problametic of human body in post modern arts
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Explanation of article events , or discribing it establish to anderstanding an phenomenon which its effects still clear in the art , surching like this may be very usful in the analysis of new art , which considering one of the most important turns in the history of art . and if we look to human body in the art as existenc in the art , from it’s begening to the modern age . so we can understand the meaning of this existence and it’s directins which cover all the worid and the lead us to thiories and suggestion’s help in understand to this direction and the effects between our arts and the external directions.

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The aesthetic images in Mohammed Thanoun graphic
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The tagged search (The aesthetic images in Mohammed Thanoun graphic) four chapters, Chapter I was concerned the statement of the research problem, the research importance and it’s needed, the goal of research in identifying the aesthetic images in the graphic of the artist's, the research limits, and identifying the most important terms, chapter II came with theoretical framework and included three chapters: chapter I was interested in the aesthetic concept. chapter II is the image aesthetic in the graphic, and chapter III is the artist experience, Chapter III specializes in research procedures: community, sample, curriculum, tool, and sample analysis. Chapter IV ended with results, including: dynamic research sample illustrated of the

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
His eloquence of Quranic verses in the verses of the Resurrection
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 The research tagged (eloquence of the Qur’anic verses in the resurrection verses) deals with study and analysis of the aesthetics of miracles in the Qur’anic poems centered on the horrors of the Day of Resurrection, and aims to clarify the role of the Qur’anic unique and its impact the miraculousness of the Qur’anic style systems, the accuracy of the unique selection and its wonderful harmony in form and content, voice and meaning, composition And a picture with its context and denomination; based on that, the research was based on the analytical method to reach its goal, and the research plan imposed its division into two preamble and two topics, the first topic dealt with: the rhetoric of the nominal Qur’anic verses in

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
الفخر بالشاعرية في شعر الشريف المرتضى
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Pride in the poetic Genius in Al-Shareef Al-Murtada's poetry.Pride in the poetic genius is a rich and recurring subject .The poets always compete with each other to show their skills in composing poetry.This subject illustrates the poet's creative talents and his ability to comprehend the vocabulary of the Arabic language.Pride in the poetic gift witnessed great development which was caused by the cultural progress of the Abyssian Age. Such influences are often reflected in poetry because it is an essential part of life.

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 21 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
خصائص الشكل في منحوتات مرتضى حداد
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يهتم البحث بدراسة الشكل في منحوتات الفنان مرتضى حداد ، والبحث عن خصائصه الفنية، وعلى وفق ذلك تمت صياغة عنوان البحث بالصيغة آلاتية: خصائص الشكل في منحوتات الفنان مرتضى حداد. شيد البحث على أربعِ مباحث؛ وتتقدمها مقدمة ثُبتت فيها مشكلة البحث التي قام على أساسها هذا البحث ، وكذلك أهمية البحث وبيان مدى الحاجة إليه ، وكذلك تحديد هدف البحث وهو الكشف عن خصائص الشكل في منحوتات الفنان مرتضى حداد ، فضلاً عن ح
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
Meaning Surplus in Contemporary Iraqi Sculpture
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The present research is concerned with studying the appearance and essence of meaning in contemporary sculpture by addressing the  problematic how to flow of meaning its multiplicity and the flow of its surplus, resulting from the transformations of the artistic form and the variety  of its methods which results to a new and different strategies in circulation and aesthetic reception to achieve this task, we have relied on models of modern Iraq sculpture, which fit in its form and raw materials with the concept of phenomenon studied. Therefore, the research topic were divided into four axes:- the first axe included an introduction about the subject. The introduction included the problems of research and its importance, aim repr

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