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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
مجلة الحقوق
اثر تنفيذ الالتزام العقدي على حساب المدين في سلطة المحكمة ـ دراسة في القوانين المدنية والقانون الانكليزي
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يتناول البحث دراسة مقارنة بين القوانين المدنية والقانون الانكليزي لسلطة المحكمة في تنفيذ الالتزام العقدي على حساب المدين

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
شعر الاحتضار حتّى نھایة العصر العباسي الأول ( ٣٣٤ ھ) دراسة في شعر اللحظات الأخیرة في حیاة الشعراء
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Dying poetry ,last felt the man to say apriorior improvisation during entry in to the
context of the death while going through it, or distracted by the death , before the soul went
out the duration of a brief may not exceed the minutes , with out pious or pen or vain , may
have been exercised in his daily life, compelled or for the benefit.
The discussion dealt with the meaning of dying, then presented its article with three
topics;
First; What was said in accepting the death.
Second; what was said in the reguest fo death.
Third; what was said to ignore the death.
This lesson as well as poetry style andcream and the imeanings and ideas and nages and
rhetorical rhythm. To achieve this, adopted solid sources a

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Strategic leadership and It's Impact on Achieving The Organizational Reputation
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Abstract :

This research aims to examine the correlation and the impact of Strategic leadership on Achieving Organizational in some of establishments in ministry of construction and housing which is under public founds, Starting from the importance of research in public organizations and the importance of these organizations to the community, it is rely descriptive analytical methods in achievement of this research, the research involved board of directors, Data has collected from (92) respondents, represent the respondent society exclusively and comprehensively, it involved the general directors, assistant general directors and heads of department, The research relied programs (Excel 2010, Spss V.21), moreover, some o

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of cognitive processes in the areas of organizational changeApplied Study in the Directorate General of Training and Development / Ministry of Electricity
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Centric study on the interest of the Directorate General of Training and Development / Ministry of Electricity to consolidate the concept of process and enhancement of knowledge in the areas of organizational change، it reached a sample of the study (44) people who are highly heads of departments، technicians and administrators in different sections of the Directorate and by using the correlation coefficient (Spearman) & coefficient of simple regression been tested correlations between variables and the impact of the study، as has been reached to integrate the role of cognitive processes with the areas of organizational change and relationships that were significant at the level of overall dimensions and subsidiary organs.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The extent of theatrical and musical arts contribute to the diagnosis And treatment of psychological problems Inmates of
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 The research aims to identify the extent to which the theatrical and musical arts contribute to diagnosing and treating psychological problems among the residents of children’s villages in Jordan, and the methodologies adopted by the theatrical and musical arts to achieve this. It moves on to prove the theory that theatrical and musical arts have an impact on improving the psychology of the residents of children’s villages in Jordan by reviewing the theories and opinions that address the subject from a scientific point of view proven by experiences and expertise. The research took place in the period between (2019-2020), and the spatial limits came within the (SOS) children's villages in Jordan. The importance of the research is to

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2006
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر المعرفة المسبقة بالأهداف السلوكية في تحصيل طالبات قسم القران الكريم والتربية الإسلامية في مادة احكام التلاوة
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مشكلة البحث

إن طرائق تدريس المواد الشرعية ما تزال تُدّرس بطرائق لا تتناسب مع ما توصل إليه البحث العلمي في الميدان التربوي في الوقت الحاضر ، وهذا مما سبب في وجود أزمة فكرية وعلمية في الأقسام التي تدرس المناهج الدينية .

على الرغم من الأهمية الكبيرة لمادة التلاوة ، إلا أن هناك مشكلة كثيرا ما يعاني منها مدرسو هذه المادة، وهي انصراف الطلبة عن حفظ النصوص القرآن

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A reflection of organizational citizenship behaviors in the performance of employees A prospective study of a sample of the teaching staff working in the Degla University College
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Abstract
        This research aims to identify the relationship and the impact of the behavior of organizational citizenship in the performance of employees, as practiced behaviors organizational citizenship substantial role in achieving the objectives of both the organization and its staff at the same time, so it affects a large extent on the characteristics and performance of individuals employees and thus influence the success of the organization as a whole, problem of the research has indicated that there is a clear failure in the study of the impact of the behavior of organizational citizenship in the performance of employees, was chosen

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 05 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Employment of Brainstorming in developing the idea of design of Fine Arts Institute Students in Designing the Technical Advertisement
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Brainstorming is considered as one of the manners that develop learners' mental abilities. Besides, it can help learners get a lot of ideas and thoughts. And by following applied steps to answer the problem concerned, the researcher carried out this practical study aimed at:Developing the ideas of design of third year students/Institute of Fine Arts/Evening Studies- Baghdad/First Rusafa by employing Brainstorming mechanism to develop the ideas of design of institute students in designing the technical advertisement and to achieve the authenticity of the goal of the research, Department of Plastic Arts/Institute of Fine Arts/Evening Studies/Baghdad-First Rusafa was chosen as a case study for the research. It embraced (20) students who rep

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of organizational culture in the quality of banking service financial perspective Applied research in a sample of Iraqi private banks
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The banking sector is a cornerstone of the national economy because of its large role of economic development of a country, which requires the advancement of this vital sector and interest in all the accompanying changes to him in order to survive and grow and continue Accordingly dealt Find reversal (organizational culture, on the quality of banking service ) sought search to achieve a number of cognitive and practical goals by selecting (10), especially among the working banks in Iraq Iraqi banks and the period is the surveyed period (2005-2014) embodied the research problem in the dialectical relationship between the (organizational culture) and its impacts on banking service quality.

Through a set of

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Workplace spiritual influence in the attitudes of worker At a number of hospitals, health department BAGHDAD/ Rusafa
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Spiritual is one of modern subjects gained importance of their role in the meaning imparted to work and to promote a sense of belonging to the group and the community, including support personnel positive attitudes towards their work. The research aims to highlight the impact of the relationship between workplace spiritual and variable working attitudes to sample variant of the hospitals, health department BAGHDAD / Rusafa, and in order to achieve this, the researcher is based on the descriptive and analytical approach adopted for the analysis of the questionnaire and to test relations research and its variables. The research community (4) of hospitals in Sadr City, included've targeted 106 doctors and 222 nurses formed a whole (

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