تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract:
Recently, there is a widespread attention about the service at the level of each of the research and academic studies, and at the organizational level as well. The subject of orientation towards the service aspect is starting to be of this attention being of the modern subjects, relatively, which appeared at the end of the last century, as well as the link of this subject with the relationship between the organization and its customers, and how to provide high quality services to get their satisfaction. Thus, the specialists from researchers were interested in this field to develop an appropriate scale to measure the organizational orientation toward service, and it was the most prominen
... Show MoreThis study attempts to address the importance of communicative digitization in the field of various arts for the sake of continuity of shopping and aesthetic, artistic and intellectual appreciation of artistic achievements by the recipient on various places of their residence in light of the COVID 19 crisis, and to highlight the importance of the plastic arts of the Iraqi painter exclusively and how it expresses in a contemporary way the environment or life reality in Iraq in light of this crisis. With all its implications affecting the life reality from various aspects and methods of its negative and positive employment. As for the research procedures, the researcher reviewed the research methodology represented by the descriptive ana
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify how organizational compatibility, which represents the independent variable, affects higher performance, which is considered a dependent variable, given the importance of these variables in industrial organizations and their clear impact on their stability, survival, and growth in the light of changing environmental challenges. Where the practical research problem was represented by the weakness of awareness of the importance toward organizational compatibility and its dimensions (organizational loyalty, organizational similarity, affiliation or membership, compatibility with goals, and compatibility with values), which is meant by the individual's compatibility with the organization in which he/she w
... Show MoreThe research topic (The Impact of the Compulsory Reserve on the Banks Credit-an applied research on a sample of Iraqi banks), was chosen on basis of the Iraqi private Banks attempts to increase their credit activities in hope to gain more profits.This coincided with the CBI aim to back the private banking market.It is thus apparent why the CBI issued its regulation to those banks to increase their capitals up to IDB250. On the other hand,the CBI acted as an obstacle in the way of increasing the private banks of their capitals,that is by implementing the quantitive monetary tool so called the compulsory reserve.This is why we intended to overlook at this contradictional problome
... Show MoreThe planning for the formation of administrative policies and guidance through leadership are important things for managing administrative processes and sporting activities. As both contribute in the stability of the administrative conditions, and their development in the sport federations, whether they both were attentive about team and individual Olympic Games. The two researchers observe that, there is a variation in the correct way of application. Particularly in the formulation of administrative policies and leadership describing it as, modern management standards for both team and individual Olympic Games in the Iraqi National Olympic Committee. That led to cause a misconception and lack of clarity for some administrators of those uni
... Show MoreThe research deals with the concept of rationalization of consumption, which is legitimately legitimized, by indicating the permissibility of consumption and its limits in Islam, the legitimate aspects of spending and its controls, and the concept of development in the Islamic economy. The researcher followed the descriptive method by presenting the legal texts and jurisprudential opinions and linking them to contemporary economic problems.The research has reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that the goal of Islam in relation to consumption is to inform the Muslim of the amount of economic maturity, and the truth of alms is good in money and religion. It is necessary for achieving maturity that both means
... Show MoreThroughput accounting is concerned with a throughput measurement process to determine the efficiency of the company, to know the problems and obstacles it suffers from, to determine their causes and ways to address them.The research problem is represented by the following question: does the application of a throughput accounting lead to maximizing the company's profits? The aim of the research is to demonstrate the importance of throughput accounting, which is one of the tools of management accounting in providing an efficient information system that provides the company’s management with the information it needs to improve its production processes, increase a throughput, and thus maxi
... Show Moreللدراسات التاريخية أهميتها ولاسيما دراسة المؤلفات الذي يعطينا صورة كاملة عن تطور الواقع التاريخي للمرحلة التي عاصرها المؤلف وتكتب دراسة الشخصيات العلمية طابعاً خاصاً ومهم يدفعنا إلى التعريف بالمؤرخ ومنهجه في الكتاب والموارد التي استقى معلوماتهِ منها .
This study aimed to determine the level of spiritual intelligence among students of educational psychology course at the Jerash University. and whether this level of varies depend on the gender of the student as well as the college type. The study sample consisted of (180) male and female students of bachelor students at the University Jerash, in the second semester of academic year2014-2015. The main results of the study were that the level of spiritual
Intelligence of Jerash University students was high. More over There were no statistically significant differences at the level of significance (0.05) due to the effect of gender, college type or academic achievement
Communities seek to achieve the economic growth through the optimal use of resources. The human resource is considered the most important of those resources where the insurance institutions take the larger role in the protection of this resource and reducing the impact caused by dangers realization that endures. The general Iraqi insurance company is considered the leading in the field of life insurance since it was founded, and until now.
This research is based on an analyzing the relation between premiums and compensations of life insurance, for individual and the group insurance, and a reality of the
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