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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The awareness degree of teacher students in Arabic language department and their supervisors at Al-aqsa University for their future role in knowledge age
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The study aimed to identify the awareness degree of teacher students in the department of Arabic language and their supervisors at Al-aqsa University for their future roles in the age of knowledge. To achieve this objective, descriptive- analytical approach was used. The instruments of this study were two questionnaires: first one consist of (20) item for teacher students, and the second consist of (27) item for educational supervisors which covered three roles: professional, technological, and humanitarian. The sample was (120) student selected randomly, and (39) supervisors of Arabic language. The result revealed that the mean of degree awareness of teacher students and their supervisors of future role are (3.857), (3.472) respectively

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Quality of Primary Health Care Services at Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City: A Comparative Study
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Objective(s): To evaluate primary health care services at primary health care centers in Baghdad City and to compare between these primary health care centers relative to such quality. Methodology: A descriptive design, using the evaluation approach, is study to Evaluation of quality of primary care services at primary health care centers in Baghdad City. A multistage probability sample of (36) health care centers was selected. The sample consists of (12) model centers, (12) urban centers, and (12) rural centers.A constructedquestionnaire is composed of (23) items. It consisted of (5) parts that include inta

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Physical Evidence Of The Product And Its Impact In Attracting The Customer AField research for a sample of private medical clinics in Maysan
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Abstract

     The current research problem includes a variety of research motivations to serve the private health sector, which is witnessing a great competition from internal and external environments. In this regard, private medical clinics are increasingly seeking to attract and retain customers through the quality of their service offerings represented by health services. Innovative and effective marketing methods to improve performance and stay in competition, by relying on the physical evidence of the product as a component of the marketing mix of services and its role in particular in packaging and supporting the health service with concrete evidence that affects the customer an

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 29 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Factors Affecting the Professional Performance of Editors of The News in Iraqi Satellite Channels - A research drawn from a Master Degree thesis
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Information pollution is regarded as a big problem facing journalists working in the editing section, whereby journalistic materials face such pollution through their way across the editing pyramid. This research is an attempt to define the concept of journalistic information pollution, and what are the causes and sources of this pollution. The research applied the descriptive research method to achieve its objectives. A questionnaire was used to collect data. The findings indicate that journalists are aware of the existence of information pollution in journalism, and this pollution has its causes and resources.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Percentage of Availability of the Elements of Citizenship Concept in the Guides for Teachers of Musical Skills in the Sultanate of Oman
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Abstract

This research aims to identify the availability of the elements of the concept of citizenship, to identify the distribution ratios of the outputs of the musical skills curriculum at the levels of educational goals associated with the elements of the concept of citizenship in the guides of teachers of musical skills for grades (12-1) in the Sultanate of Oman. A content analysis card was designed to include the teacher’s guides of musical skills for grades (12-1), which included the outputs, according to the grades with the identification of the elements of citizenship (identity, belonging, rights, participation). The results of the research revealed that the percentage of inclusion of citizenship values

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Law /al-nahrain University
The Content of the Contract – A Study in Light of French Legislative Decree No. 131-2016 Issued on 10 February 2016
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Of the new concepts introduced by the decree of the amendment of the French Civil Code No. 131-2016 issued on 10 February 2016, which raised a debate in jurisprudence both at the level of French jurisprudence or the Arab, the concept of (the content of the contract), which seems to have emerged from the appearance of new legal articles ( 1162-1171) is the cornerstone of the contract and the contract in the contract, the two pillars which, over the course of 200 years and a half, have been one of the main pillars of the codification of Napoleon. Is that the decree of amendment has already abandoned these two pillars, or most of what he did is a change in terminology while preserving the content of these two pillars implicitly, this is what w

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 25 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Economic Sciences University
تأثير إستراتيجيات ادارة اللاتأكد في إستراتيجيات التغيير المنظمي دراسة مقارنة في شركتي زين واسيا سيل للاتصالات
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The research aims to diagnose the level of reflection of uncertainty management strategies (Ignoring uncertainty, knowledge generation , interaction , coping) managing of Organizational change strategies (power coercive, rational empirical, Normative reductive) to the importance of the two subjects and the importance of the expected results has been selected sample size (65) managers from Zain , Asia Cell Telecommunication (32 Zain and 33 company Asia),which alignment for the such a study being heavily dependent on the certainty or uncertainty subject . The researchers are attain there is the effect of uncertainty management strategies in Organizational change management strategies on the overall level in the two companies but have tended t

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 05 2010
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
العلاقات العراقية التركية في مجال المياه
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العلاقات العراقية التركية في مجال المياه

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 28 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
السياق السياق وأثره في الدلالة اللغوية
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Context has a great value in determining meanings and understanding speech as well as it has a significant impact on interpretation of the sacred text (Holy Quran) since it needs to be carefully understood by knowing the different circumstances

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Provisions of payment of the questioner in Islamic jurisprudence
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God has honored the man with life and decent living and warned against attacking anything that violates his sanctity without a legitimate right. Our Islamic Shari'ah has the rights to preserve the right of a Muslim in the event of any harm.

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