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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 29 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
AYĀT AL-HUJJAH FĪ SŪRAT AL-ANĀM RIWĀIAH WA DERĀIAH ( a model in three verses from Surat Al-An’am 108-110)
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The current research discusses the jurisprudence of the argumentative meaning in the Qur’an, and it is one of the general methods of responses in the Qur’an, as well as the argumentative approach to the recitations of the readers and directing their meanings. I have chosen a model for three verses from Surat Al-An’am, in which there are seven frequent recitations and seven odd ones, on a topic related to theology and faith; It forms the centerpiece of the argument verses in Surat Al-An'am; It contains the jurisprudence of dealing with infidels and dissenters, turning away and forbidding insulting what they claim besides God in the event of corruption, and God Almighty’s decree and wisdom in the occurrence of unbeli

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 29 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
اثر أثر مقامات بديع الزمان الهمذاني في تقنيات السرد الأدبي ( صورة بغداد الفنية في مقامات الهمذاني )
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    There is nothing new in saying that Baghdad is the capital of world culture for eight centuries during the Islamic caliphate, it was the Arab book manuscript and copied books worldwide touring most of the capitals of the world

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Six Thinking Hats Strategy on Improving Creative Thinking Skills" Field research in the Medical City "
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Abstract  

   The research problem focuses on studying the interest of the Medical City Department of the Ministry of Health in improving the creative thinking skills of the administrative leadership through parallel & comprehensive thinking according to the of six thinking hats strategy. The research sample consisted of (170) administrative leaders in the upper & middle organizational levels, The questionnaire was used as a main tool for data collection, In addition to the observation & Interview, The research sought to answer the following questions: What is the extent to which the administrative leadership (Tpp & middle) in the organization investigated the concept of the six thinkin

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Photos of Women in Iraqi Feature Films after 2003
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The research seeks to examine the image of women in Iraqi films produced after 2003 over the answer to questions such as “ level of the representation of women and appearing in films and features that are attributable to them and their relationships with men and their interests and tendencies , activities and ways and methods pursued to achieve their goals , or what appeared to be trying to achieve and whether made movies vivid and varied models for women, or confined to a rigid model and duplicate Is films raised issues concerning women? The research seeks to examine the image of women in Iraqi films produced after 2003 over the answer to questions such as “ level of the representation of women and appearing in films and features th

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The relationship between the multiple intelligence and the numerical sense of mathematic subject among 4th secondary stage students
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The study aimed to investigate the relationship between the multiple intelligence and the numerical sense. The chosen population of the study was the 4th secondary stage students. The sample consisted of 400 female and male student. The researcher utilized two test; multiple intelligence test which include three categories of intelligence (logical-mathematical, spatial, and linguistics) consisted of (36) item, and the numerical sense test that consisted of (44) item. The two tests were constructed by the researcher himself. The psychometric properties of the test were also verified. The results showed that there was a correlation between the multiple intelligence and the numerical sense as well as the students’ means scores

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Effective Leadership in Application of E-Human Resources Management System Applied research at Baghdad International Airport
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The research acquires its importance by motivating the behavioural side of the employees to apply modern technology in the work, because of its great importance in increasing the efficiency of employees’ performance and excellence. The research was based on two main hypotheses to show the relationship and impact between the variables through the adoption of a questionnaire to collect data and information related to the research, which consisted of (50) people from administrators working at different levels, based on personal interviews and field visits to collect research data. The data collection process was subjected to statistical analysis using the statistical program (SPSS) (Statistical package for social science) to reach

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Implementation within strategic planning and its impact on banking service quality: (An applied research on a sample of Iraqi banks)
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In the midst of rapid changes and difficultiesand the tough competition faced by the Iraqi banks, it has become necessary to focus on a significant aspect of administrative work; that is strategic planning and the key role of implementation within this process in improving the banking service quality. It has emerged as a critical and main competitive weapon for distinguishing the services provided by banks from each other in an effort to participate in increasing market share of the bank in question in question; in its growth, continuation and profit increase.

The research has addressed the relation between the independent variable (implementation within strategic planning), and the dependent variable (banking service quality and

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of The Round Robin Strategy in Logical Thinking the Fourth in Chemistry
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The study aims to identify the impact of the round-robin strategy on the logical thinking of fourth-year middle school students in chemistry. Two groups were employed:  an experimental group consisted of (30) students who were taught according to the round-robin strategy, and the control group consisted of (30) students who were taught according to the traditional method. The researcher adopted the experimental design with partial control by preparing the visual thinking test tool, which consists of (20) multiple-choice items, it was applied as a post-test on the research sample. The result showed that there was a statistically significant difference in favor of the experimental group, which was taught according to the Round Robin s

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 15 2015
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Extraction of Fish Oils and Used in Drugs Systems.: Extraction of Fish Oils and Used in Drugs Systems.
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In this study was undertaken frish fish such as Bigeye Ilisha megaloptera, Nematalos nasus, Suboor Hilsha ilisha and Carp Cyprinus carpio. they were purchased from local marketes in Basrah, Oil was extracted by a solvent extraction method on low temperature. And the level of oil obtiened about (6.08; 10.72; 13.52 and 5.61)% for Bigeye, Jaffout, Suboor and Carp. the Crud oils were compared with vegetable oil (olive oil) and animal fat (tial fat mutton).
The extracted oil from fresh complete fishs with compared oils intraed on pharmacological system through packed in capsul with and with out garlic`s extract. this system analysis with chemical tests.
Results were analyzed statistically by using the SPSS program with using (CRD)

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Role of Education in Enhancing the Value of Citizenship in Children through the Interactive Life Process in Educational Institutions
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The aim of the research is to diagnose the methods of enhancing the value of citizenship in children through the interactive life process in educational institutions; the descriptive approach was used to achieve the objective by identifying social theories that corresponded to the national value or the theoretical principles of citizenship education. The study focused on educational activities and their role in establishing values, national educational philosophy in interactive activities, as well as the presentation of previous studies on the subject of citizenship, and maps of each of the strategies of active learning, skills in the process of interactive life in the field of education, Institutions that have the responsibility to prom

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