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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Photos of Women in Iraqi Feature Films after 2003
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The research seeks to examine the image of women in Iraqi films produced after 2003 over the answer to questions such as “ level of the representation of women and appearing in films and features that are attributable to them and their relationships with men and their interests and tendencies , activities and ways and methods pursued to achieve their goals , or what appeared to be trying to achieve and whether made movies vivid and varied models for women, or confined to a rigid model and duplicate Is films raised issues concerning women? The research seeks to examine the image of women in Iraqi films produced after 2003 over the answer to questions such as “ level of the representation of women and appearing in films and features th

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Divorce and its effects on women rights - A field study in Baghdad city / ALMADAIN COURT
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The problem of divorce from the phenomena that characterized the nature of privacy,
although their impact beyond the individual to include the community as a whole, the parties
to the relationship affected by divorce caused them harm moral and material for a long time,
resulting imbalance in the personal relationship and family and social relations because of the
high divorce rates, particularly in Iraq high rates of 28690 thousand cases in 2004 to 59 515
thousand cases in 2011 and an increase of more than (100%) during the period above, and this
rise caused by aggravation of many of the problems led the reasons for social, economic and
incompatibility spouses, health and lack of reproduction, not spending The wife a

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
توجيه الصفاقسي للقراءات في "غيث النفع في القراءات السبع" من سورة الأنبياء إلى نهاية سورة النمل
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The research deals with the collection of Allamah Ali al-Nuri’s guidance on readings, which he included in his book (Ghaith al-Naf’ fi al-Qira’at al-Sabe) and singled out it in a separate study,

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of leadership skills in organizational trust Analytical research center in the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, Iraq
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Formed leadership skills and organizational trust Based on intellectual that underpinned the current research, as represented leadership skills variable interpretative represented in organizational trust-response variable.

The research aims to test the relationship and the impact of leadership skills dimensions in organizational trust dimensions for the purpose of achieving its objectives were formulated hypotheses main relate to test the effect and the relationship between the variables of research for the purpose of testing those hypotheses applied research on a sample of heads of departments and officials of the people at the center of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research, where th

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The causes of the fire and its impact accidents compensation insurance companies: Applied Research in a sample of the general insurance companies
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      The subject of the evolution of fire insurance of the hottest topics accidents, because it falls within the commercial insurance, as its importance is reflected for being a security source and contentment of the insured person and so it is worth pointing out the importance of fire insurance in enterprises and organizations of all kinds, because of the guarantee of its assets from meridian as well as protection from the effects of the fire therefore ensure continuity in the performance of their activities

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Employing Microteaching in Acquiring Teaching Skills for Students Teaching The Basic Stage in Al-Aqsa University- Gaza
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The study aims to identify the effectiveness of employing microteaching in acquiring teaching skills of students teaching basic stage in Al-Aqsa University. The two researchers used the experimental method and a quota sample consisted of a group of (80) students who were distributed on the university two branches in Gaza and Khan younis and on males and females equally, and on four teaching courses counted (20) students for each. The study tool represented in an observation card ,and the results showed statistically significant differences between the level of all the skills of teaching and between the standard rate (75%) in favor of teaching skills, also showed statistically significant differences attributed to the variable of the univ

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Influence of the basic elements of knowledge management in strategic performance/filed research sample of private banks in Baghdad
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objective  the research to diagnosis and interpretation of the nature of the effect between the  basic elements of knowledge management (tecgnology , structure , culture , process , human resource ) and the strategic performance of the Iraqi private banks, the research community and the level dimensions, and I've tested this research in the private banking sector represented by (7), especially in Baghdad, Iraqi banks, and applied research on sample consisting of 100 distributors in several administrative levels Director (Director, Director of the department, branch manager), and use the researcher questionnaire Head to collect data and information tool, and some private banks annual reports, has sought research to test

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 07 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE IDEOLOGY OF UNIVERSITY STUDENTS TOWARDS POLITICAL DISCOURSE IN SATELLITE CHANNELS: A field study on media students at Al-Mustansiriya University))
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‏The speech delivered by political blocs and parties and broadcasted by satellite channels, social and communication media has different ideologies and orientations: moderate speech calling for calm or one raising crises.‏The latter is considered very challenging due to its local and international reference.‏, this paper aims at uncovering these challenges especially during the political crisis witnessed in Iraq. This paper sheds light on the most important crisis that spread in public opinion, broadcasted by satellite, and raised by politicians who are competing to gain authority leading to a lack of peoples, confidence in them.‏This matter should not be neglected at all; e

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of the requirements of Total Quality Environmental Management in promoting environmental sustainability-An Empirical Study in the Iraqi Drilling Company
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Abstract

quality issue is the only issue the interesting in recent years of the last century, but also came out of sync with the other issue is the issue of environment, Where they have become represent two sides of one currency, challenges faced by the world and raised by the environmental problems have made industrial organizations pay great attention to the environment by improving their environmental performance, and that's where the oil industry is one of the most dangerous industries, influential and damaging to the environment due to the organizations move away from oil for adoption The application of EMS then a tool to improve environmental performance has been chosen sam

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of internal marketing in achieving customer satisfaction An exploratory study of a sample of private bank managers in Baghdad
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This study examined the effect of elements of internal marketing activities on customer satisfaction through an exploratory study of banking services in the city of Baghdad, if the research problem crystallized by asking a group of questions, the most important (is there a correlation and impact between the dimensions of internal marketing and customer satisfaction, this study aims to determine The effect of internal communication, training and internal market research on customer satisfaction, represented by the quality of service, loyalty and market share, and embodied the objective of this study to identify the level of availability of internal marketing activities and programs in the research banks, data were collected using

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