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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of Cost awareness of activation of strategic cost management techniques of industrial units: A prospective study at the General Company for the manufacture of medicines and medical supplies in the province of Mosul
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The last ten years observed a shift enormous scientific in the method and way that it deals professional with the cost accounting and reflected the result those shift enormous scientific of increase the competitive environmental that accompanied the emergence of a modern manufacturing environmental on surface the long roductive life and emergence advanced information technology that give a central focus of his important on client with growing global markets growth on a large scale.

        The research aim to define the concept of cost awareness, the concept and methods of  strategic cost management and the role of cost awareness for managers of industrial units in strategic of cost managem

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2005
Journal Name
مجلة مداد كلية الاداب الجامعة العراقية
الامشطة الاتصالية للعلاقات العامة في المؤسسات الدينية العراقية ,دراسة تحليلية في الإصدارات الصحفية في دواوين الأوقاف الدينية للمدة من (1 /12 / 2009م - 30 / 6 / 2010م ).
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تعد أنشطة العلاقات العامة تمثل جانباً مهماً من جوانب عمل المؤسسات بشكل عام في الوقت الحاضر، وتأخذ خصوصية أكثر في المنظمات الحكومية، بسبب الأعباء الضخمة والمسؤوليات العديدة تجاه أفراد المجتمع، وقد اهتمت الدول المتقدمة والنامية على حد سواء بهذا النشاط. إن أنشطة العلاقات العامة تؤدي دوراً هاماً في تسهيل عملية الاتصال وتحقيق الفهم المتبادل وتوطيد العلاقة بين الطرفين – المؤسسة والجمهور – وللعلاقات العامة دور

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Employ of Public Relations in Building Awareness of Security against Terrorism A Survey of the Employees of the Directorate General of Public Relations and Media at the Ministry of Interior
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This study aims at identifying the role played by Public Relations in the field of security awareness of the dangers of terrorism. The research is directed to the employees at the Directorate General of Public Relations and Media at the Ministry of Interior. And that on the basis that those who play an important role in the security awareness are the security institutions, primarily the Ministry of Interior, since this Directorate is responsible for all subjects related to the public security using public relations science. It aims at identifying the functions, methods and communication tools used by the Directorate to raise awareness about the dangers of terrorism. In order to achieve the research objectives, the researcher uses the sur

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Crossref
Publication Date
Wed Dec 29 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Professional Development and its Relationship with some Variables in the Light of Sullivan Theory among Male and Female Teachers in the Basic Education Schools in Sultanate of Oman: سالم بن ناصر بن سعيد الكحالي
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The study aims to reveal the level of professional development in basic education schools from the male and female teachers’ viewpoint in the Sultanate of Oman. It further aims to examine its relationship with some variables in light of Sullivan theory, and the differences in the level of professional development (teachers’ skills, professional participation, professional development problems) according to the gender variable, and the educational stage (first cycle/ second cycle). The study sample consisted of (93) teachers distributed as such: (46) male teachers, and (47) female teachers. A questionnaire was prepared and applied to measure the level of the professional development of the male and female teachers. The questionnaire c

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Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Feb 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Use Of Artificial Neural Networks In Developing The Role Of Auditor In Discovering Fundamental Errors: An Applied Research In General Company for Electrical Industries and Nasr General Company for Mechanical Industries
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Artificial neural networks usage, as a developed technique, increased in many fields such as Auditing business. Contemporary auditor should cope with the challenges of the technology evolution in the business environment by using computerized techniques such as Artificial neural networks, This research is the first work made in the field of modern techniques of the artificial neural networks in the field of auditing; it is made by using thesample of neural networks as a sample of the artificial multi-layer Back Propagation neural networks in the field of detecting fundamental mistakes of the financial statements when making auditing. The research objectives at offering a methodology for the application of theartificial neural networks wi

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Nov 09 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of the use of automated accounting systems technology in enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the internal control system.: دراسة تحليلية لعينة من الموظفين العاملين في اقسام المحاسبة والتدقيق في الجامعات البحرينية
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The research aims to show the relationship between the use of automated accounting systems technology and its impact on enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the internal control system in a sample of Bahraini universities in light of the rapid changes in the                                       electronic business environment. Automated accounting and its impact on enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the internal control system, and it is concluded through the analytical study of the research sample that there is a percenta

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2015
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Building the News Agenda in Iraqi Newspapers and Patterns of Bias in their Sources
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News are considered the most press arts that supply the target audiences with daily information and events happened inside and outside society since it is formed by depending on its resources which have a deep relation with formal corporations to gain their satisfaction in order to support their authority and spreading their domination by using mass media in editing their viewpoints and achieving wide acceptance among public opinion. In the field of technological development and changing in the fields of politics, society, culture, economics etc. inside Iraqi society and democratic transition help to convert news agenda from independent variation to a fellow variation while in the past the variation of mass media was the independent one

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 22 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The causes of the fire and its impact accidents compensation insurance companies: Applied Research in a sample of the general insurance companies
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      The subject of the evolution of fire insurance of the hottest topics accidents, because it falls within the commercial insurance, as its importance is reflected for being a security source and contentment of the insured person and so it is worth pointing out the importance of fire insurance in enterprises and organizations of all kinds, because of the guarantee of its assets from meridian as well as protection from the effects of the fire therefore ensure continuity in the performance of their activities

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Extent to Which the Internal audit function contributes to improving administrative performance: A field study in the Baghdad Health Department / Rusafa
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Abstract:

                The internal audit is considered the safety valve for senior management in all institutions. It aims to protect property, and raise the efficiency and effectiveness of the administrative performance, by following up on compliance with laws and instructions and the application of regulations in a way that increases the administrative performance of the department. The internal audit is possible to determine Weaknesses or imbalances in the administrative performance. To achieve this goal, an analytical descriptive methodology was adopted. The Baghdad Health Department / Al-Rosana was considered as society for this s

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of Employing Microteaching in Acquiring Teaching Skills for Students Teaching The Basic Stage in Al-Aqsa University- Gaza
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The study aims to identify the effectiveness of employing microteaching in acquiring teaching skills of students teaching basic stage in Al-Aqsa University. The two researchers used the experimental method and a quota sample consisted of a group of (80) students who were distributed on the university two branches in Gaza and Khan younis and on males and females equally, and on four teaching courses counted (20) students for each. The study tool represented in an observation card ,and the results showed statistically significant differences between the level of all the skills of teaching and between the standard rate (75%) in favor of teaching skills, also showed statistically significant differences attributed to the variable of the univ

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