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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
STUDY THE EFFECT OF MICROENCAPSULATION OF PROBIOTIC TO INCREASE SURVIVALITY TOWARDS MILK PASTEURIZERTREATMENT WHICH AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS.: STUDY THE EFFECT OF MICROENCAPSULATION OF PROBIOTIC TO INCREASE SURVIVALITY TOWARDS MILK PASTEURIZERTREATMENT WHICH AVAILABLE IN LOCAL MARKETS.
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Lactobacillus Plantarum and Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG were encapsulated using 3% of alginate via extrusion technique. And the probiotics capsules produced were further coated used 1% chitosan to increase the survival of probiotics, and evaluation of The heat resistance of the slow pasteurization and fast pasteurization for Lb,pla and Lb.GG for control and bacteria coated one layer and bacteria coated two layer at 63°C/ 30 minutes and 72°C/ 15 seconds. The results indicate that the Probiotic coated two layer are more resistant to pasteurization temperatures at 63°C/ 30 minutes and 72°C/ 15 seconds than the Probiotic coated one layer. While the results of the control follow a significant reduction for viability of cell toward pasteuri

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 04 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Predicting the financial distress of companies using logistic regression and its impact on earnings per share in companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange: Predicting the financial distress of companies using logistic regression and its impact on earnings per share in companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange
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Abstract

The prevention of bankruptcy not only prolongs the economic life of the company and increases its financial performance, but also helps to improve the general economic well-being of the country. Therefore, forecasting the financial shortfall can affect various factors and affect different aspects of the company, including dividends. In this regard, this study examines the prediction of the financial deficit of companies that use the logistic regression method and its impact on the earnings per share of companies listed on the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The time period of the research is from 2015 to 2020, where 33 companies that were accepted in the Iraqi Stock Exchange were selected as a sample, and the res

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 08 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Role of Schools' Leaders in Developing the 21th Century Skills of Teachers of Al-Ardha Governorate
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Abstract

The aim of the research is to develop specific skills of 21 century, one schedule, renewable: (sex, years of experience, academic degree) from the viewpoint of the research sample. The descriptive tool was used to collect information for research purposes. It was applied to a sample of (339) male and female teachers in Al-Ardhah governorate schools to teach Jazan. The application was carried out in the second semester of the year 1442 AH. The research concluded with a set of results, the most important of which are: the approval of the sample members to a large extent on the expressions of the role of school leaders in the practice of developing male and female teachers in acquiring these three skills fr

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
المجتمع المجتمع المدني في الفكر السياسي الإسلامي مقاربة فكرية مع نظريات الحكم الأساسية في الإسلام
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   This research is entitled (civil society in Islamic political thought) which is an intellectual approach with theories of governance in Islam) to be as an attempt to clarify the confusion between mandatory and governorship text basis, and the extent of the nation’s movement within the framework of guiding to translate requirements of the responding towards the civil state project through civil visions according to the Islamic perspective.

      In other words, It is the relationship of man and society in one hand and with an authority with other hand , according to an attempt vision that is to emphasize that Islamic religion can manage modern society and can prove legal philosophical reason

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Nurses' Practices regarding Patients Discharge Planning post Cardiac Surgery at Cardiac Centers in Baghdad city
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Objective (s): to assess nurses' practices regarding discharge planning post-cardiac surgery and to find out the relationship between nurse practices and demographic characteristic (age, gander, level of education, years of experiences, and years of experiences in surgical ward).
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out at cardiac centers and hospitals in Baghdad (Ibn Al- Bitar specialized center for cardiac surgery; Iraqi center for heart disease and Ibn al Nafees hospital). For the period of 6th February 2017 up to 1st of June 2018. A non-probability (purposive) sample of (58) nurses (male & female) who were working in surgical wards. The data was collected, by using of a questionnaire, which consists of two parts, part

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of e-governance on achieving creative performance
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The research aims to investigate the relationship and impact of e-governance as an independent variable in achieving creative performance as a dependent variable. These variables have been studied in the Directorate of Passports Affairs, and seek to come up with a set of recommendations that help in promoting e-governance in the researched organization, and the researcher adopted the descriptive-analytical approach, included The sample (122) of the total (194) individuals distributed in several administrative levels (officers, associates, and administrative staff). By adopting the questionnaire, which included (49) paragraphs as the main tool for the collection of data and information, as well as personal interviews and field obs

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effects of human error in the banking risks - Empirical study in a number of Iraqi private banks
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Abstract

This research aims to study human error effects in the banking risks in the private banks  through the measurement and testing of human error effect in every kind of banking risks types and stand on the most closely associated with the risks in order to focus on them and make appropriate processors have with respect to and increase the availability of skills and expertise required to carry out banking operations of error-free manner.

Find dealt with human error in terms of meaning and understandable, classifications and types, causes and consequences and its approaches and theories. Also addressed placed banking risks in terms of meaning and concept, species and entr

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 10 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Relation of Results to Objectives of Media Research – an Evaluative: Study of Research of al-Baath al-iilami Journal from 2007 to 2016
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The main idea of this research is that the researcher believes that media research remains useless unless its goals and results are achieved by using the correct scientific tools. The researcher chooses 100 research papers of about 35% of the published ones, 10 of them are excluded because they are outside media. We use a simple and randomized sample including the three departments of media: journalism, television and radio journalism and public relations. The researcher adopts statistical methods such as Fay coefficient, correlation coefficient, Pearson correlation coefficient and straight line equation.
The researcher uses an analytical form followed by analysis of content, them the scale. The results are found in 58 researches, w

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 24 2018
Journal Name
جامعة بغداد / كلية التربية للعلوم الصرفة - ابن الهيثم
اثر استراتيجية Plan في التحصيل والتفكير التاملي لدى طلاب الصف الثالث المتوسط في مادة الرياضيات
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Publication Date
Sat Aug 13 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The efficiency of the tax examiner and its impact on discovering the artificial adjustment of profits: Applied research in the General Tax Authority
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The aim of the research is to measure the length between the variable the efficiency of the tax examiner with its dimensions represented by (scientific questions, practical process (experience), training and development, impartiality and independence, ethics of the profession) and the approved variable discovering the artificial adaptation of profits, and the degree of arrangement of those dimensions its importance and priority, and the research problem has been identified  In a main question that is there any effect of copying the images of the image examiner in discovering the adaptation, the financial statements and reports of the companies (X, Y) and the banks (A, B) were relied on in the interpretation of the results, t

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