تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The need for an intellectual understanding of the context from many aspects' dictates understanding the ways through which the graphic designer walks in simulating the intent of the design process and elevating it to levels of communicative perception that leads to communicating the idea to the recipient, and it is thus a need closely related to the context, if it is historical. Culturally or socially, and between the mechanisms of selecting and operating the elements and units of the graphic and design achievement. On this basis, the role of context in graphic design can be studied.
The research included four chapters, the first chapter of the research problem and the need for it, and the aim of the research was (discovering the
... Show MoreStaring Of Its Philosophy And Intellectual Orientations And Ending With What Offering In Studying Rooms {Educational System} Concerning With Scientific ,Cognitive , Technological And Cultural Structures ,The Variables Inside This System More Than Constants And Preoccupation With Future More Than Past And Present .
So We Should Review The Education System Starting Of Its Philosophy Ending With Formulate The Educational Structure According To A New Standers To Estimate The Educational Outputs Within A Frame Of Behavioral Outputs Relay On Global Quality Standards Influenced By Global Quality Culture Which Make Us Along The Educational And Cul
... Show MoreIn the field of research in the investment of gas fields, this requires that we first look at the center of the contracting parties in terms of the guarantee means granted to them under the contract, which constitute a means of safety and motivation to enter as major parties in the investment project. In turn, we will discuss the minimum guarantees, which are the most important guarantees granted to each of the two parties to the contract, namely the national party and the investor.
الامامة والثورة في فكر المعتزلة
Al-Jahiz is considered one of the scholars who had a great participation
in building the Arab scientific heritage, through his scientific
contributions that
It is the dynamic tension between the relatively fixed built environment and the constantly changing in social life that determines the nature of urban spaces belonging to different historical periods, and considered as a tool for diagnosing transformations in urban spaces, that’s why, the characteristics of urban space became unclear between positive spaces and negative spaces, so emerged the need to study contemporary urban space belonging to the current period of time and show the most important transformations that have occurred in contemporary urban space to reach urban spaces that meet the current life requirements. Therefore, the research dealt with a study of the characteristics of contemporary urban space and the most pr
... Show MoreThe Arabic language has always been and still is the preoccupation of our scholars, both advanced and late, because of the amazing secrets that this language holds. What distinguished it from the rest of the languages is that its owners speak with sounds that others are unable to pronounce, except by vigorous attempts, and these voices include za’, middle and extreme hamza, and ha’.
The present study aims to shed light on psychological intentions in some prophetic hadiths and present practical models and realistic applications that reveal the aim behind Prophet Mohammed’s actions and speech. This study relied on a descriptive and deductive approach. It included three demands. The first demand provided a glimpse of the theoretical and conceptual framework of psychological intentions and their most important classifications. The second request tackled the history of Makassed thought in the Prophet’s hadiths. The third requirement dealt with the presentation of the physical, mental, and psychological intentions in Sunnah. The results revealed that The Islamic religion seeks to achieve happiness for the human being
... Show Moreزمانةوانة بونيادطةرة ئةمريكييةكان لة نيَوانى سالاَنى ( 1925 – 1945 ) بةتيَثةرِبووكات تيؤرى ( فؤنيم)يان ضةسثاند ،بةم جؤرة زمانةوانةكان ئاراستةى كاريان بةرةو مؤرفؤلؤذى طؤرِى بؤية ماوةى نيَوان سالاَنى ( 1940 –1960 ) ليَكؤلَينةوةى مؤرفؤلؤذى بووة خالَى بنةرِةتى (1 ) . جيَى ئاماذةية كة ئةو كةم و كورتيانةى كة لة ثيَناسةى وشةدا دةركةوت هؤكاريَكى سةرةكى بوون بؤ ئةوةى بةدواى جيَطرةوةيةك بطةرِيَن ، كة ئةويش ضةمكى مؤرفيم بو
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