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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
تحولات تَحولات الزَّمان في مُقدَمة القَصيدة الجَاهلية (دراسة تحليلية في شعر زهير بن أبي سلمى)
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Addresses research philosophy decade in significance vehicle metamorphic between the time the real is between two moments two different: the moment the last beautiful memories of parents and beloved, but the present moment harsh stand on

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Developing Workers’ Performance and Its Role in Settling Financial Claim: An applied research in the General Iraqi Insurance Company
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This research seeks to identify the dimensions of the development of staff performance (training ', incentives, management skills) and its impact on the settlement of compensatory claims adopted in the current research in the Iraqi insurance company،This research aims to highlight the role of developing insurance company’s workers’ performance in settling insurance compensation, and to check this process, the research was applied in the general Iraqi insurance company as it considered as the research community, and a sample was taken from this community that represented by company’s insurance department workers or by collecting actual data that is related to the research’s sample, in addition to the financial compensation data.<

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using TD-ABC technology to determine idle production capacity: An applied research in Al-Wasat Oil Company
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The aim of the research to apply TD-ABC technology to determine the idle capacity of the central oil companies (oil field east of Baghdad), as a modern cost management technology based on time-oriented activities (TD-ABC) is used by industrial companies in general and oil companies on In particular to build a sustainable Calvinist pillar and make future decisions by identifying idle energy to gain it a competitive advantage, the descriptive analytical approach has been adopted in calculating and analyzing the company’s data for 2018, and the most prominent conclusions of this research are managing idle energy and the task of applying cost technology on the basis of time-oriented activities and providing Convenient spatial infor

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الزراعة ا لزراعة في بلاد الشام في القرن الثامن الهجري من خلال رحلة ابن بطوطة
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Greatest travelers Muslims and Ousahm fame, called sheikh Rahalin to frequent roam in outlook, he spent twenty-eight years of his life in travel-related trips and successive, is Ibn Battuta, who wander in, as it was of adventurers who pushed curiosity to ride a lot of difficulties.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 19 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Role of the Opportunity Cost in the Overall Economic Development: Applied Study in The General Company for Leather Industries
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This research set to indicate the role of the opportunity cost in the overall economic development (human and social development) by selecting the most appropriate alternative for the growth of the country in exchange for sacrificing profit limits to achieve this growth and development of the country, especially in the present circumstances of the country and after studying the reality of the economic case for him, as the problem lies with don't selecting the best alternative that enhances the gross domestic product, which extends to promote overall economic development and revive the industrial and agricultural sectors, productivity is more like Impotent, versus sacrifice alternative consumption may bring more financially lucrative than

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 30 2019
Journal Name
حولیات أداب عین شمس
أثر أنموذج فراير في اکتساب المفاهيم البلاغية عند طالبات الصف الخامس الادبي في مادة البلاغة
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رمي البحث الحالي الى تعّرق أثر أنموذج فراير في اکتساب المفاهيم البلاغية عند طالبات الصف الخامس الادبي في مادة البلاغة. ووضع الباحثون الفرضية الصفرية الآتية: "ليس هناک فرق ذو دلالة احصائية عند مستوى (0.05) بين متوسط ودرجات طالبات المجموعة التجريبية اللواتي يدرسن مادة البلاغة بانموذج فراير، ومتوسط درجات طالبات المجموعة الضابطة اللواتي يدرسن المادة نفسها بالطريقة التقليدية (القياسية) في الاختيار البعدي لا کتسا

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Suspicion in the truth that the satisfaction of the student in the criticism of the speech of the poet and the writer to I bin Al-Atheer
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Suspicion in the truth that the satisfaction of the student in the criticism of the speech of the poet and the writer to I bin Al-Atheer

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of strategic leadership in knowledge management processes "Diagnostic Study in the Office of the Ministry of Oil - Project Department"
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The research deals with the important and modern two subjects, strategic leadership which have six demotions and knowledge management
(four demotions') . the gools & the research is to know the relation & the effect them in the oil ministry (project department) , the sample was (50) persons who works in the department the questionnaire was the tool of data gathering .

The research divided to four parties, the first  to the theotical review of the research variables, the second to the research methrology, the third to analysis and discoed the empirical results the last to the conclusions and recommendations .

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Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر إستراتيجية المفاهيم الكرتونية في تحصيل طلاب الصف الأول متوسط في مادة الجغرافيا وتفكيرهم البصري
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The impact of cartoon concepts strategy in the Achievement of the first grade student's average in geography and visual thinking

The study aimed to measure the impact of cartoon concepts strategy to Achievement, visual thinking in the first grade students in the average geographical material.

Find sample consisted of 52 students were divided into two groups, the first experimental studied strategy cartoon concepts and the control group was studied in the traditional manner of parity between the two variables (chronological age, the overall rate, prior knowledge, the degree of intelligence, visual) thinking.

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 18 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
supervisory authorities role in protection the financial system " conservatorship model: an applied research in Albaraka investment bank
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The conservatorship is a legal action to protect troubled banks from credit risk and bankruptcy risk that banks cannot hedge them .The Central Bank role has to protect the financial system from these risks by controlling and supervising. This research studied these risks and explained the role of The Central Bank. This research presented and analyzed the legal framework for supervision and the imposition of conservatorship bank to address the effects that have been achieved as a result of poor management and weak internal controls. Baraka Bank for Investment and Finance was a research sample to measure the financial ratios for the troubled bank, and analysis the results that led to put the conservatorship. The research depends on the hyp

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