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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of the Self-Questioning Strategy on the Achievement of the Fourth Grade and Their Reflective Thinking in Physics
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Abstract

The aim of the research is to identify the effect of using the self-questioning strategy on the achievement of fourth-grade students in science and the development of their reflective thinking in physics in the city of Baghdad. The research sample was divided into two groups: an experimental group of (20) students and a control group of (20) students. The researchers developed two tools: a test of (40) multiple-choice questions. The second tool is a test to measure the reflective thinking skills of fourth-grade students. It consists of (25) multiple-choice questions distributed on skills as follow: reflection and observation, detection of inaccuracies, reaching conclusions, giving clear explanations, an

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Search for Identity in Michael Ondaatje's Post colonial Novel In the Skin of a Lion
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In his post colonial novel, In the Skin of a lion, the Canadian/Sri Lankan writer,
Michael Ondaatje is so interested in the term "Post colonialism" because he wants to show
that the term doesn't only refer to a period of time that comes after colonialism. In other
words, post colonialism is not only referred to as a literal description of formerly colonial
societies. He deals with the termas a literary genre and an academic construct that describes
the global conditions of a man after a period of colonialism. He shows that post colonialism is
a theory that tries to examine and explore the different styles and faces of European authority
to control the colonized. Ondaatje's attempt through such term is to unmask Europ

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of marketing orientation on improving the quality of service applied research in some Iraqi mobile phone companies
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The research discusses two variables are important, orientation marketing and quality of service, and that the purpose of the research is to see whether the telecom companies applied orientation marketing or not and to what extent is keen to apply it to suit the Iraqi environment as it has been applied research in kork Telecom company and Asia Cell Telecom are sectors service job in the business sector in Iraq, The information was obtained through the design of the questionnaire compatible runway Likert, and distribution (92) questionnaire, which (50) for the company Korek Telecom and (42) of the Asia-Cell, research population sample included a number of staff in the departments and units in the two companies, it has been support

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of organizational symmetry in improving the quality of work life an applied research at the University of Information and Communications Technology
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"The aim of the research is to identify the availability of the dimensions of the research variables represented by organizational symmetry and the quality of work-life at the University of Information and Communications Technology, which is one of the formations of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in Baghdad, in addition to knowing the relationship and influence between them. The research relied on the descriptive analytical approach based on peer description. The research was analyzed and the research sample consisted of (148) individuals, the sample was chosen using the comprehensive inventory method, data was obtained by relying on the questionnaire which was prepared from ready-made m

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
قراءة قراء الكوفة في كتاب "غاية النهاية في طبقات القراء" لابن الجزري"ت832هـ"/دراسة منهجية
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               خص ابن الجزري في كتابه هذا قراء الكوفة بمجموعه كبيرة من التراجم التي قدمها وفق صياغات  منهجية منوعه اعتمدت على الأسس والضوابط التي التزم بها في تقديم تلك التراجم الخاصة بقراء الكوفة بصورة خاصة  والتراجم الأخرى بصورة عامه مشيرا إليها من خلال بعض الصياغات الفنية في الروايات، فكان يشير إلى نوع العلاقة لمترجمة مع شيوخه من خلال عرضه للرواية ولاسيما في كثرة الرو

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of intellectual capital on sustainable competitive performance: field research in a sample of private colleges
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Abstract:

                  This research seeks to test the influence of intellectual capital as an explanatory variable and its components (human capital, structural capital, relational capital) and sustainable competitive performance as a responsive variable and its components (reducing service delivery cycle time, rapid response to market demand, increasing customer satisfaction, providing better Quality of service, increasing market share)” through a field study, and here the research problem was diagnosed in an attempt to answer the following question: Is there awareness among the senior management within the private colle

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Impact of the Constructive Scientific Stations Strategy on Achievement and Mind Habits for The Fourth Scientific students in biology
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The study aimed at ideutifying the impact of scieutific skills in strategy and liabits of mind amony stueuts in tenth grade . The study demanded to choose a sampie that coutaiun (42) student of the fourth grade of the secondary school who were dirided into tow groups , the first is experimental studied according to scieutific skill strategy , and the other controlling , studied according to the  usualway . An achievement test  has been taken that adopted  staudard for mind skills as research tools that are applid after ascertaining  sincerity proved at the end of the experiment .The study has reached to the conclusion that there are statistically significant differnces in farour of the experiment group in both

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
مجلة كلية التربية ابن رشد / جامعة بغداد
اثر استراتيجية التعلم بالاقران في تحصيل طلبة الصف الخامس الاعدادي في مادة قواعد اللغة العربية
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 08 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Role of Schools' Leaders in Developing the 21th Century Skills of Teachers of Al-Ardha Governorate
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Abstract

The aim of the research is to develop specific skills of 21 century, one schedule, renewable: (sex, years of experience, academic degree) from the viewpoint of the research sample. The descriptive tool was used to collect information for research purposes. It was applied to a sample of (339) male and female teachers in Al-Ardhah governorate schools to teach Jazan. The application was carried out in the second semester of the year 1442 AH. The research concluded with a set of results, the most important of which are: the approval of the sample members to a large extent on the expressions of the role of school leaders in the practice of developing male and female teachers in acquiring these three skills fr

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 19 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
المجتمع المجتمع المدني في الفكر السياسي الإسلامي مقاربة فكرية مع نظريات الحكم الأساسية في الإسلام
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   This research is entitled (civil society in Islamic political thought) which is an intellectual approach with theories of governance in Islam) to be as an attempt to clarify the confusion between mandatory and governorship text basis, and the extent of the nation’s movement within the framework of guiding to translate requirements of the responding towards the civil state project through civil visions according to the Islamic perspective.

      In other words, It is the relationship of man and society in one hand and with an authority with other hand , according to an attempt vision that is to emphasize that Islamic religion can manage modern society and can prove legal philosophical reason

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