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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
البهائيون في بغداد (دراسة تاريخية)
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The Baha'is are a group that belongs to the Baha'iya, the Baha'iya according to the encyclopedia of Religion Sciences is a modern religious sect appeared in existence in the middle of the ninetieth century. The number of their believers is around six million people of different parts of the world. its main center lies in Haifa city in Palestine

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 08 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الإشاعة في ضوء القرآن الكريم
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شغلت الإشاعة حيزا مهما من اهتمام العلوم الاجتماعية وكانت مادة بحث في علم النفس الفردي وعلم النفس الاجتماعي وعلم الاجتماع والسياسة. ويأتي هذا الاهتمام الكبير والمتواصل بالإشاعة لآثارها الخطيرة على حياة الأفراد والمجتمعات في أوقات السلم والحرب.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
investment in the residential sector and its finacing
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Adopting a policy of attracting investments in all countries, whether developing or developed prevailed, especially after the global crisis, and this trend is imposed by considerations of political and development (urban, economic, and social) can be formulated as a rational policy to solve many problems related to patterns of urban growth, economic, social, and including the problem of housing. As the reality of the housing sector in Iraq will require the allocation of substantial resources to promote it by the research problem is the lack of financial resources and the inability of investments to meet the various requirements including the requirements of economic sectors, particularly in the field of housing, infrastructure an

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
دار الجواهري للنشر والطباعة
الميسر في موسيقى الشعر العربي
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الميسر في موسيقى الشعر العربي

Publication Date
Mon Jul 22 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
مرقد السيدة نرجس في سامراء
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يعدّ مرقد السيدة نرجس كاحد  المعالم القديمة المقدسة في العالم الإسلامي،
لابدّ من تسليط الضوء على شخصية السيدة نرجس عليها السلام

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 31 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Ruling on abortion in Sharia and law
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Research title: Ruling on abortion in Sharia and law.

The importance of research: Projection is of great importance because it touches the life of a living being who enjoys human qualities. However, this organism often wastes its rights and does not protect its human beings. These souls are lost in millions by the sake of casual desire or hidden desire.

The research plan: The research dealt with an introductory topic, four topics, and in each topic there are demands, branches, and a conclusion.

The most important findings of the study: The ruling on aborting the fetus in the Sharia is only permissible (and the necessity is valued at its va

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Nesrin Erbil'in Şiirlerinde Üzüntü
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Nesrin Erbil, Çağdaş Türk şiirinin kıvançla söyliyebileceğimiz öncü bir isimdir. Gerçek aşk, ayrılık, üzüntü, sevgiliye hasretin yetiştirdiği ve olanaksızlıklara haykıran bir sesidir. O bir Türkcesine tüm zencirleri kıran engelleri aşan sevgiyle sevgiye ve sevgiliye koşan kendi başına bir yaratıcılıktır. Şiirleri Erbil kokar yumuşak saçının tellerini Altın Köprü suyuyla yıkamayı diler. Yüreği ise Gürgür Baba’dır Türkmen için yanar.

          Nesrin Erbil, 1960 yılından sonra Irak’ta gelişen yeni Türk edebiyatı ve serbest şiir akımının en önde gelen temsilcisi olarak, büyük ilgi toplamıştır. Şiire karşı olan merak

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 10 2023
Journal Name
الجمعية العراقية للعلوم السياسية
Ethnofideralism: A Study in the Belgian Experience
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Belgium is one of the countries that headed towards federalism through a peaceful transition, and over a few decades the country has witnessed deep transformations in its institutions, from a unified and central state in the early nineteenth century to a federal union, regional operations began since 1970 up and constitutionally established its diversity Linguistic and regional, the so -called "state reforms" have been implemented, which led to the emergence of political repercussions. The country has suffered about two decades ago, which caused many national governments that are considered to be among the Luxor in the modern political history of Belgium, However, institutional reforms to achieve the stability of the political system began,

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Publication Date
Sun May 15 2005
Journal Name
Researchgate.net/publication/399040310
The Technician & Its mutations on the modern Painting
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Since start studying the subject of this research, I have been busy with several queries; most of them were trying to reach the relation of technical civilization development and its role in the appearance & transformation the modern painting schools. This had been enhanced by checking the artistic works for different times and trying to understand and study the subjects of these paintings and how those works had been done. Did we reach to the result that the great success of the modern techniques had caused intellectual and psychological change inside the artist himself, making him changing his subjects & turning over the roof of his portrait and minimizing the time needed to fulfill the portrait and its ingredients. This can be touchable

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 03 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Rulings of magic  and its treatment in Islam
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Praise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and the best of prayers. He has completed the delivery of our master Muhammad, his family, and all his companions. O God, bring us out from the darkness of illusion, honor us with the light of understanding, open us with knowledge of knowledge, facilitate our morals with dreams, and make us who listen to the saying and follow their best.
And after ..

Since ancient times, magic was mentioned in many books in the history of the civilizations of ancient peoples, where the first emergence of human civilizations, the oldest of which is the Mesopotamian civilization, the Chinese civilization, and the Pharaonic civilization in Egypt, where concepts prevailed based on the charlatans and sorcery an

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