تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
This research aims at studying and analyzing the creative research thinking of the educational staffs in private universities and colleges, and also the role of incentives, in its materialistic and moral sides in the development of such thinking and the pack of restraints which cause decline in interest level of the scientificresearch, and its weak role in the development of universities in Iraq, despite the interest of the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research in Iraq in scientific research as part ofits academic and humanitarian targets.Based on study and analysis, and the using if some of statistical methods such as the Alpha Chronobaghcoefficient and the (T. Test)(F. Test),the research reached a number of conclusions.
... Show MoreThe purpose of the International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS 15) is to determine the basis for reporting useful information to the users of financial reports on the nature, amount, timing and uncertainty about revenues and cash flows arising from a contract with a customer. It is based on specific conditions for recognizing revenue from the contract. When the two parties to the contract or one of them fulfil the performance obligations, specifically after the customer has the ability to exercise control over the product or service that is the subject of the contract. As a result of the failure of the revenue reporting requirements in the Iraqi environment to provide adequate and honestly representative information on the o
... Show MoreThis research –paper tack les some of matters relating to marriageability of the young man who has not attained discretion. the aim of this study is to highlight the religious precepts concerned. the religious missive to this effect reads; ''all praise be to Allah ,lord of the world ;I witness that there is no god but Allah, the sole and only, to him all creation is attributed. He taught man with pen, and all that he does not know, so exalted is he, and I witness that Mohammed is his servant and messenger, the master of all messengers and the seal of all prophets who was entrusted with a message of march to all mankind. May the blessings of Allah be to him, his household and companions. Until the day of Judgement. "this missive i
... Show MoreIn this paper, the effect size measures was discussed, which are useful in many estimation processes for direct effect and its relation with indirect and total effects. In addition, an algorithm to calculate the suggested measure of effect size was suggested that represent the ratio of direct effect to the effect of the estimated parameter using the Regression equation of the dependent variable on the mediator variable without using the independent variable in the model. Where this an algorithm clear the possibility to use this regression equation in Mediation Analysis, where usually used the Mediator and independent variable together when the dependent variable regresses on them. Also this an algorithm to show how effect of the
... Show MoreThe research dealt with the financial policies adopted by Almurabitin (484-520 / 1092-1143) and Almuahadin (540-620 / 1145-1223) in Andalusia, their characteristics, and how they dealt with increasing the resources of Bayt Almal and organizing the spending process. The first axis of the research discussed the policies of the management of public funds in the provinces of Almurabitin and Almuahadin in Andalusia. While the second presented to the most prominent and most important resources of Andalusia financial in the era of these two countries such as Zakat, Alkhiraj, Alghanayim, confiscations and illegal taxes and others. The third axis reviewed the public spending policies of the two countries and the political and military conditions
... Show MoreAbstract:
The aim of the current study lies in showing and demonstrating the effect of the independent variable of organizational integrity with its dimensions represented by (organizational optimism, organizational trust, organizational integrity, organizational sympathy) on the dependent variable of strategic drifts through its dimensions represented by (organizational culture, leadership, innovation, strategic planning) .The analytical descriptive approach has been adopted and the questionnaire has been used as a tool to obtain data and information from the sample of (57) people who are at the administrative levels (seni
... Show Moreيهدف البحث الحالي الى اختبار علاقة الارتباط والتأثير بين إدارة الاحتواء العالي وسلوك العمل الاستباقي ، ومن اجل تحقيق ذلك تم اختيار مجلس محافظة بغداد ميداناً لتطبيق البحث، وشمل البحث متغيرين إدارة الاحتواء العالي عبر ابعاده الفرعية )ممارسات التطوير، المكافآت، مشاركة المعلومات، التمكين(، وسلوك العمل الاستباقي عبر ابعاده )تولي المسؤولية، صوت الموظف، المبادرة الشخصية(، وضمت عينة البحث ) 97 ( فرداً من الموظفين ا
... Show MoreThe research aims to identify banking stress tests, which is one of the modern and important tools in managing banking risks by applying the equations of that tool to the sample. The banking sector considered one of the most vulnerable to sudden and rapid changes in an unstable economic environment, making it more vulnerable. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a special risk management section to reduce the banking risks of the banking business that negatively affect its performance.
The research concluded that there is a direct relationship between stress tests and risk management, as stress tests are an essential tool in risk management. They also considered a unified approach in managing bank risks that helps the bank to
... Show MoreThe present study deals with the websites of Iraqi political parties on the internet to identify the effectiveness in providing communicative applications that help audience to participate, express their opinions, their positions, and other aspects reflecting the extent of employing modern technological tools to allow opportunities for political, and democratic participation since the internet has become an effective tool for political communications of political parties. The research sample includes eight political parties. The research concludes that the Iraqi political parties do not employ interactive communication patterns to reflect their interests in communicating with the public, providing opportunities for their participation an
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