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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Babis and Baha’is in Iran
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The person who wants to learn. The history of Bab’is will notice a very
starnge phenomenon that they (Babis and Baha’is) resort to visions to prove their
delusion.
The believers usually reach to each other by their visions. This phenomenon
are shared among them from Al- Ahsa’ai time till the last phase of their propaganda
which is the Baha’is propaganda, and this is due to their ignorance and under
development in doctrine of islam which was widespread in Iran and the Islamic world.
The whole secrets of Babis and Baha’is movement were restricted among
particular group, most of them were Al- Rashti’s students and knew the basic
principles of their movement which deperding or (the principles) declarati

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2006
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
النظام السياسي في تركيا وايران
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النظام السياسي في تركيا وايران 

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Urban Security in Cities Planning
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Cities have witnessed great changes since the planning of the first cities. This is due to the increase in population and problems in services which affect urban security. As such, urban security is directed and affected by the nature of city planning and the types of services. Besides, the kind of services plays an imminent place in providing urban security at all levels. Other factors that influence urban security can be limited to the increase of population, economic and social changes. This leads to losing urban control. This study will explore the historical chronology to identify weaknesses in urban planning since its dawn and reaching solutions to protect urban security. The importance of the research lies in achieving urban secur

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2023
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
ظاهرة المُحال في اسم التفضيل
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Al-sarf science is one of the most scientifically accurate and rich in branches. Because it depends on the one accent and how the changes happened inside this science (from an event associated with time or not associated). The people who create this science and were deep made a tough rule to can out of these sentences without reason. The aim of this research is to declare (The Impossible Phenomenon in the Preference Name) and this study is separated into two chapters: 

Section one: it’s content of (Preference) in the base books and the scientists of linguists and the rules that authorized building in the name of Preference. 

Section Two: Discussed the ways that possibly come in the name of Preference and resol

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
مجلة التراث العلمي العربي
The problem of masculinity and femininity in Arabic
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Perhaps masculinity and femininity in our Arabic language are among the linguistic issues that have occupied the attention of researchers, ancient and modern. Many books, works, and research have been written on this subject, but there is still something in it that must be revealed, clarified, and established, as the ancients did not classify the feminine and masculine into real, metaphorical, auditory, analogical,

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم القانونية
خصوصية التراضي في عقود الاستهلاك
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خصوصية التراضي في عقود الاستهلاك

Publication Date
Wed May 05 2021
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
منهج الجاحظ في كتاب الحيوان
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Al-Jahiz is considered one of the scholars who had a great participation
in building the Arab scientific heritage, through his scientific
contributions that

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
THE EFFECT OF SPREACL of KNOWLEDGE ON ETHICS
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THE EFFECT OF SPREACL of KNOWLEDGE ON ETHICS

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Publication Date
Wed May 17 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Time in (what and whatever) conditionals
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This is a research in which I studied the opinions of Arab scholars, in their studies
For (what) and (whatever) the two conditionals and their indication of time, and its name
B (time in (what) and (whatever) the two conditions), and I mentioned their opinions in it
This issue was discussed and discussed, and in this study it relied on the sources of the Arabic language.
Especially the books of grammar, interpretation, and the opinions of the scholars of the principles of jurisprudence are mentioned,
I also mentioned the opinion of the scholars of jurisprudence, and how they likened (whatever) to (everything).
In its indication of repetition, and as long as it indicates repetition, it indicates
time Because repetitio

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
THE critical conscious in the creative writing
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