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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
النظام النظام المالي في الاندلس في عصري المرابطين والموحدين (484- 620 ه/ 1092-1223م)
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The research dealt with the financial policies adopted by Almurabitin (484-520 / 1092-1143) and Almuahadin (540-620 / 1145-1223) in Andalusia, their characteristics, and how they dealt with increasing the resources of Bayt Almal and organizing the spending process. The first axis of the research discussed the policies of the management of public funds in the provinces of Almurabitin and Almuahadin in Andalusia. While the second presented to the most prominent and most important resources of Andalusia financial in the era of these two countries such as Zakat, Alkhiraj, Alghanayim, confiscations and illegal taxes and others. The third axis reviewed the public spending policies of the two countries and the political and military conditions

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 18 2020
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
provisions 0f the special young man in marriageability: provisions 0f the special young man in marriageability
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This research –paper tack les some of matters relating to marriageability of the young man who has not attained discretion. the aim of this study is to highlight the religious precepts concerned. the religious missive to this effect reads; ''all praise be to Allah ,lord of the world ;I witness that  there is no god but Allah, the sole and only, to him all creation is attributed. He taught man with pen, and all that he does not know, so exalted is he, and I witness that Mohammed is his servant and messenger, the master of all messengers and the seal of all prophets who was entrusted with a message of march to all mankind. May the blessings of Allah be to him, his household and companions. Until the day of Judgement. "this missive i

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of the Alternative Evaluation Strategy on the Achievement of Fourth-Grade Female Science Students in the Subject of Biology
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Abstract

The aim of the current research is to identify the Effect of the alternative evaluation strategy on the achievement of fourth-grade female students in the subject of biology. The researchers adopted the zero hypothesis to prove the research objectives, which is there is no statistically significant difference at the level (0.05) between the average scores of the experimental group who study according to the alternative evaluation strategy and the average scores of the control group who study in accordance with the traditional method. The researchers selected the experimental partial adjustment design of the experimental and control groups with the post-test. The researchers intentionally selected (Al-fed

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Academic Problems of Family Counseling Diploma Students At Saudi Universities based on some Variables
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The research aims to identify the academic problems of family counseling diploma students at Saudi Universities. In addition, to identify the differences in these problems according to gender, marital status, place of study, academic specialization, and GPA. The sample consisted of (491) students. The researcher has used one questionnaire for academic problems prepared by the researcher.  The research revealed the following results: There were academic problems among family counseling diploma students at Saudi Universities, the most problems were related to the systems and administrations of the university, then the field training, the buildings, classrooms and campus facilities, then the academic courses, after that the exams, then

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The phenomenon of negative behavior has studied as a social and psychological phenomenon that effect on the performance and life of workers inside and outside the organization. The adoption of this phenomenon is studied in terms of the role of the interna
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The phenomenon of negative behavior has studied as a social and psychological phenomenon that effect on the performance and life of workers inside and outside the organization. The adoption of this phenomenon is studied in terms of the role of the internal environment of the organization in addressing this behavior, being the variables belong to the field of organizational behavior to see the results of those variables on the Iraqi organizations, since the specificities of it differ from the rest of the Arab and foreign environments. Therefore, this study focused on testing the relationship of the internal environment of the organization and its role in addressing the negative behavior of the workers.

thi

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 11 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The effect of rural building types informing the type of traditional courtyard houses in Sulaimaneyah city.
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The types of traditional houses vary from region to region according to physical and non-physical circumstances, and Sulaymaniyah city is characterized by a type of traditional houses that differ significantly from those in most cities and regions neighboring are always different from the general pattern that is prevalent in the region and the Muslim world.

 

The aim of this research is to study the cause of this difference or distinction in the traditional houses in Sulaimaniyah city, by comparing the most common models in these houses and comparing them with the general models of village houses that originally existed in the region to relaize the convergence and contrast between them. The research was based on a co

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر اسلوب القصة المبتورة في تحصيل تلاميذ الصف السادس الابتدائي في مادة التعبير التحريري
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The current research aims to identify the impact of the amputated story style in the collection of sixth graders in elementary in the written expression subject.

The researcher, intentionally, chose Al-Ameen primary hybrid school which belongs to the directorate of education in Baghdad / Karkh first.  The number of people of the sixth grade three classes. The researcher chose the two classes randomly to represent one of the experimental group, the number (32) pupils (male and female) have studied the expression subject by the amputated story style. Other control group, the number (32) pupils studied according to the traditional method.

The researcher prepared the lesson plans and presented to the experts, the researc

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Market knowledge And its role in achieving Competitive advantage Applied research in Iraqi Cement state company))
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The current research dealt with a vital subject contributing In success Iraqi Industrial Companies general and Iraqi Cement state company A market knowledge, It is one of the most important industrial companies that Which serve to fill the local market need Of cement without resorting to import, The problem of research was limited understanding of the importance of the role played market knowledge of the tendencies and desires of competitors, This in turn affects the company's ability to achieve competitive advantages,The research aims to know the extent of adoption Iraqi Cement state company Concept  market knowledge And employment achieving Competitive advantage By removing them (Cost, and quality, and del

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of long-term investment on bank profitability : an applied research on a sample of Iraqi banks
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Abstract

                The aim of the research is to demonstrate the impact of long-term investment on profitability, and in order to achieve this goal, long-term investment was chosen, represented by (the ratio of long-term investments to total investments, the ratio of long-term investment to the total (deposits) as independent variables, and studying its impact on the dependent variable, which is profitability as measured by the rate of return on investments, the rate of return on equity. In order to reach the results, the inductive approach and the analytical descriptive approach were used, and the research found a significant impac

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Organizational conflict management strategies and their impact on the job performance / rashad hospital applied research training program
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This research aims to study to the strategic management of organizational conflict, which included (concept of conflict and development, types Altzimi conflict, ,management strategies organizational conflict) and its impact on job performance, which included( the concept of performance, elements functionality,) As well as the impact of the conflict on job performance has been selected Rashad training Hospital affiliated to the Department of Health in Baghdad's Rusafa, as the most important service hospitals with the exact specialty in psychiatry and its impact on the lives of citizens and how to enable the hospital aware of the strategic management of organizational conflict raises the level of functionality provided and make the

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