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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 25 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
التهديدات المؤثرة على استقلال مراقب الحسابات: دراسة في مكاتب تدقيق الحسابات في سلطنة عمان
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The auditor plays a key role in economic life because of the confidence his report adds to the audited financial statements. In applying the various stages of the audit process, the auditor must maintain a high moral level that determines his type of commitment in his professional behavior before God first, And to the society at last in a way that supports its independence. On this basis, the aim of the research is to identify the threats that affect the independence of the auditor. To achieve the objective of the research, the hypothesis that there is a statistically significant relationship between the threats facing the auditor and his professional independence was formulated. In the light of testing the hypotheses of research it was

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 25 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
ادارة الاحتواء العالي وتأثيرها في سلوك العمل الاستباقي: بحث تحليلي في مجلس محافظة بغداد
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يهدف البحث الحالي الى اختبار علاقة الارتباط والتأثير بين إدارة الاحتواء العالي وسلوك العمل الاستباقي ، ومن اجل تحقيق ذلك تم اختيار مجلس محافظة بغداد ميداناً لتطبيق البحث، وشمل البحث متغيرين إدارة الاحتواء العالي عبر ابعاده الفرعية )ممارسات التطوير، المكافآت، مشاركة المعلومات، التمكين(، وسلوك العمل الاستباقي عبر ابعاده )تولي المسؤولية، صوت الموظف، المبادرة الشخصية(، وضمت عينة البحث ) 97 ( فرداً من الموظفين ا

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 27 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of TQM in promoting employee loyalty: Search exploratory In AL- Fedaa Public Company
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       The research aims to determine the principles of total quality management (commitment of senior management, product planning, customer satisfaction, process improvement) and its role in promoting employee loyalty through a sample survey of the opinions of managers in public redemption Company. Which amounted to (45) individuals adoption of the questionnaire as a tool head in collecting data and information and their responses were analyzed using several statistical methods, which included (arithmetic mean, standard deviation, correlation coefficient, and the coefficient of simple regression) depending on the program (spss). The research found a group of the most important conclusions from the presence

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Total quality management of the environment in flexible manufacturing / exploratory study in cement factory Badush
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Abstract

  Nowadays, the world adopts a philosophy that relates to environmental conservation. This philosophy can be achieved through providing environmentally friendly products while satisfying customers' needs as well. To attain that, a new systems and programs need to be applied in a scientific manner, and total quality environmental management (TQEM) is among these concepts. The research aimed to analyze the Relationship between (TQEM) Practices and its effect on Flexible Manufacturing in Badush factory. The research sample includes managers and head of divisions at top, middle and front line management levels which were (27) working in Badush factory. To achieve the objectives of the study, the descriptive anal

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Crossref (1)
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
مدى الالتزام بعناصر الرقابة الداخلية في هيئة التعليم التقني: دراسة ميدانية في بعض المعاهد
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Aimed at the researcher during his research to characterize the elements of internal control under the standards of the state and measurement and analysis of the extent to which those elements in the form of technical education through a selected sample included the three institutes (Institute of Directors Technical Institute for the preparation of the trainees and the Institute of Technology). The researcher used the method of analysis the descriptive terms used questionnaire to collect the necessary information and were subject to analysis using descriptive statistical methods Kalost mean and standard deviation, and research found a set of conclusions, including a commitment to the elements of internal control in the form of technical

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2017
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Use of Digital Public – Relations in the Work of Iraqi Universities: A Survey Study of the Workers in the Departments of Public Relations
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the digital public relations aim at make the workers getting the necessary information about the governmental institutions where they work and the enveronment surrounding them. it also tries to let the workers get the special knowlege of tthe publich relations and their jobs like the works of planning , arranging the active communication and executive skills needed in their writing , editing , special art skills for designing , production and technological skills to deal with the computer.
the problem of the research includes some questions as :
1- what are the uses achieved by degetal public relations workers at Iraqi universities (Baghdad, Mustansiriya, and Iraqi)
2- what are the tools used to apply digital public relations

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Assessing the Impact of reformation in wise Administration of Ruling and constant development : A study of Arab Political
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The research has been talked on specific an important notions concerning with the dimensions of effectiveness of good governance and sustainable development inside all Arab states, So that the scientific article reflected the role of investments in various sections of institutional business by draw attention toward different projects about analyzing the whole political reality according to the standard indications of political and social stability on the regional level and international aspects. Therefore, the study resembled scientific contains and the dimensions of political reform and administrative overhauling within governmental system in order to achieve all raw objectives for sustainable development. All international and

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Transfer Of Training In Framework Of Supporting The Work Environment Characteristics (Filed Research of The Generals lnspectors Offices)
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The  transfer of  training  process occupies a great importance in achieving the ultimate goal of participating in the training programs , it  is sure that this does not take place without the support of the working environment for trainees,  and The research aims to personification role the work environment characteristics  of supporting the transfer of training.                                    

The research problem is the weakness transfer of training to the work en

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Use Of Computerized Curriculum Individually and Cooperatively In the Achievement of Ninth Grade Students in Mathematics
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The study aimed to investigate the effect of using the intructional computer individually or through the cooperative groups on the achievement of the ninth grade students in mathematics compared to the traditional method. The experimental method adapted three groups out of three schools were chosen, two groups of the students where applied the computer method. The comtrol group used the simple random method, and it used the diagnostic test as tool for the study.The result showed that there is a statistically significant difference between the mean scores of the experimental groups and the control group on the post-test for the two experimental groups.

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Suggestion Plan for the Reclassification of U.N Publications in Central Library
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Suggestion Plan for the Reclassification of U.N Publications in Central Library

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