Preferred Language
Articles
/
Pxc4s40BVTCNdQwCChkw
نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
...Show More Authors

تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2016
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Message in detail what was said in the parents of the Prophet  Ibn Kamal Pasha (d. 940 e) study and investigation
...Show More Authors

After Hamdallah and his success on the realization of this manuscript (a letter in detail what was said in the parents of the Prophet  Ibn Kamal Pasha (d. 940 e) study and investigation I will review some of the results reached in the realization of this manuscript:
1. The hadiths mentioned in this manuscript are mostly placed or weak.
2 - We are not entitled to speak about the silence of the law for saying Almighty ﭽ ﮮ ﮯ ﮰ ﮱ ﯓ ﯔ ﯕ ﯖ ﯗ ﯘ ﯙ ﭼ Table: 101.
3 in which harm to our Holy Prophet  وله تع ﮂ ﮃ ﮄ ﮅ ﮆ ﮈ ﮉ ﮊ ﮋ ﮌ ﮍ ﮎ ﭼ parties: 57.
4 Because the parents of the Prophet  of the people of the period ordered them to God for the Almighty ﭽ ﯨ ﯩ ﯪ ﯫ ﯬ

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Sep 13 2023
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم النفسية
واقع مشاركة رياديات الاعمال في تحقيق اهداف التنمية المستدامة دراسة ميدانية في محافظة بغداد
...Show More Authors

للمرأة دوراً استراتيجياً حيوياً في المجتمع ، بوصفها نصف المجتمع ، ونظراً لأهمية الأدوار التي تؤديها في مجالات الحياة كافه سواء الاجتماعية ، أو السياسية ، أو الاقتصادية ، في ظل التغيرات والتحولات التي شهدتها المجتمعات عامة والمجتمع العراقي تحديدا, لاسيما في الفترة الأخيرة كانتشار التعليم والصحة ومفاهيم العدالة وتكافؤ الفرص في مختلف الميادين ، والتي صاحبها وبشكل واضح زيادة مشاركة المرأة في مجالات العمل المخ

... Show More
Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed Measure for Effect Size in Mediation Analysis with Solution to Some Mediation Process Problems
...Show More Authors

In this paper, the effect size measures was discussed, which are useful in many estimation processes for direct effect and its relation with indirect and total effects. In addition, an algorithm to calculate the suggested measure of effect size was suggested that represent the ratio of direct effect to the effect of the estimated parameter using the Regression equation of the dependent variable on the mediator variable without using the independent variable in the model. Where this an algorithm clear the possibility to use this regression equation in Mediation Analysis, where usually used the Mediator and independent variable together when the dependent variable regresses on them. Also this an algorithm to show how effect of the

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
ההשפעה והשענוע בנאום הפוליטי של שמעון פרס עיון פרגמטי בדוגמאות נבחרות מנאומיו Effect and Persuasion in the Political Discourse of Shimon Peres A Pragmatic Study in Selected form of His Addresses
...Show More Authors

במחקר הזה ניתחנו מספר נאומים של שמעון פרס, אנחנו התמקדנו בהשפעה והשכנוע אצל שמעון פרס ואיך הוא יכול להעביר את המסרים של נאומיו בסגנון פרגמטי כדי להגיע ללבו של הציבור.

 גם כן, התמקדנו בסגנון הפוליטי שהוא חושב כי התחום הזה צריך להיות ברור מול הציבור וגם כן מול דעת הקהל הבינלאומי מתוך השימוש במונחים בעלי השפעה ושכנוע להגיע למטרות המבוקשות.

 במלים אחרות, שמעון פרס, לעתים, מתמקד בשפה מליצית ויעמוד הרב

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Mathematical Modeling for the Clarifier Units and Turbidity Parameters in AL-KARAMA Treatment Plant
...Show More Authors

The high cost of chemical analysis of water has necessitated various researches into finding alternative method of determining portable water quality. This paper is aimed at modelling the turbidity value as a water quality parameter. Mathematical models for turbidity removal were developed based on the relationships between water turbidity and other water criteria. Results showed that the turbidity of water is the cumulative effect of the individual parameters/factors affecting the system. A model equation for the evaluation and prediction of a clarifier’s performance was developed:

Model: T = T0(-1.36729 + 0.037101∙10λpH + 0.048928t + 0.00741387∙alk)

The developed model will aid the predictiv

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Oct 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
النظام النظام المالي في الاندلس في عصري المرابطين والموحدين (484- 620 ه/ 1092-1223م)
...Show More Authors

The research dealt with the financial policies adopted by Almurabitin (484-520 / 1092-1143) and Almuahadin (540-620 / 1145-1223) in Andalusia, their characteristics, and how they dealt with increasing the resources of Bayt Almal and organizing the spending process. The first axis of the research discussed the policies of the management of public funds in the provinces of Almurabitin and Almuahadin in Andalusia. While the second presented to the most prominent and most important resources of Andalusia financial in the era of these two countries such as Zakat, Alkhiraj, Alghanayim, confiscations and illegal taxes and others. The third axis reviewed the public spending policies of the two countries and the political and military conditions

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Sun Jan 04 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اثر اسلوب القصة المبتورة في تحصيل تلاميذ الصف السادس الابتدائي في مادة التعبير التحريري
...Show More Authors

The current research aims to identify the impact of the amputated story style in the collection of sixth graders in elementary in the written expression subject.

The researcher, intentionally, chose Al-Ameen primary hybrid school which belongs to the directorate of education in Baghdad / Karkh first.  The number of people of the sixth grade three classes. The researcher chose the two classes randomly to represent one of the experimental group, the number (32) pupils (male and female) have studied the expression subject by the amputated story style. Other control group, the number (32) pupils studied according to the traditional method.

The researcher prepared the lesson plans and presented to the experts, the researc

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
organizational integrity and its impact in avoiding strategic deviations: Applied research in the Iraqi insurance company
...Show More Authors

Abstract:

                The aim of the current study lies in showing and demonstrating the effect of the independent variable of organizational integrity with its dimensions represented by (organizational optimism, organizational trust, organizational integrity, organizational sympathy) on the dependent variable of strategic drifts through its dimensions represented by (organizational culture, leadership, innovation, strategic planning) .The analytical descriptive approach has been adopted and the questionnaire has been used as a tool to obtain data and information from the sample of (57) people who are at the administrative levels (seni

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Publication Date
Fri Jul 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact Of Application Of Jit In The Banking Sector On The Quality Of Banking Service
...Show More Authors

Abstract 

          The research the impact of the application of some of the production system tools in the specified time, which can be adapted in the service sectors (banking sector) over the improvement and increase the quality of banking services, and highlights the research problem in the low quality of banking services provided to customers because of the reliance on traditional banking systems in the provision of services Because of the lack keep pace with global developments in the banking industry, and the goal of research is to clarify the applicability of the production system in the time specified in the service sector and th

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Apr 17 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Expressionism in painting contemporary in Iraq Study features formalism: عبد الرزاق جبار رحيل الكناني
...Show More Authors

In the present research is marked (expressive drawing in contemporary Iraq, the study of morphological features) eating expressive as the direction of modern art in the drawing for the period before and after World Wars I and II. And follow the tracks. And in research and investigation about the origins and sources and characteristics of expressionist painting at adult patrons and art gatherings, and the extent of their impact in the drawing for contemporary Iraqi sixties and seventies generation (generation of professors) and down to the younger generation in the eighties of the last century. Over the nearly two decades of history of fine movement in Iraq, a period specified in the search within the limits of temporal boundaries, and by

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref