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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Theoretical Prediction of Optimum Chilled Water Distribution Configuration in Air Conditioning Terminal Unit
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 The distribution of chilled water flow rate in terminal unit is a major factor used to evaluate the performance of central air conditioning unit. In this work, a theoretical chilled water distribution in the terminal units has been studied to predict the optimum heat performance of terminal unit. The central Air-conditioning unit model consists of cooling/ heating coil (three units), chilled water source (chiller), three-way and two-way valve with bypass, piping network, and pump. The term of optimization in terminal unit ingredient has two categories, the first is the uniform of the water flow rate representing in statically permanents standard deviation (minimum value) and the second category is the maximum heat transfer rate fro

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
تأثير الذكاء الشعوري في الذكاء المنظمي دراسة تطبيقيه في الشركة العامة للصناعات الكهربائية
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The two terms"of fective intelligece and organizational intelligence" is it is the emotional intelligency and organizational intelligency"are considered as one of the contemporany terms which the various organizations started to function them in their activities to in crease their efficiency.

This study aims at examining those two terms and the possibility of their functioning them in one of the general organizations and the questionnaire is used as atool to gather information that are distributed on asample consists of (50)employees and selected randomly from various organizationl levels.

The most important conclusions:<

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
ابعاد الجودة في السيطرة على العدوى المكتسبة في المستشفيات الحكومية العراقية: دراسة تقويمية
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ابعاد الجودة في السيطرة على العدوى المكتسبة في المستشفيات الحكومية العراقية: دراسة تقويمية

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of the Idea Filtering Strategy on the Achievement of the Second Year Middle School Female Students in Science
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Abstract

The current research aims to identify the effect of the idea filtering strategy on the achievement of second-intermediate school female students in science. The two researchers adopted the experimental method and the experimental design with partial control in the two groups (experimental group and control group). The two researchers applied the research experience to a sample of students of the second intermediate grade in the school Martyrs of (Jiser  Al Aimma for Girls) affiliated with the Baghdad Education Directorate / Rusafa /1 for the academic year (2021/2022), which was chosen intentionally. The number of female students in the research sample was (70) students, with (35) students for the ex

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Concurrent Engineering In Enhancing Strategic Performance :Applied Research in Zora Public Company
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Abstract

   This research aims to the relationship and the effect of concurrent engineering dimensions analyze (product design, process design, and supply chain design) on the dimensions of strategic performance (efficiency, and effectiveness) The research was conducted in public Zora Electrical Industries Company, on a sample of departments and officials, engineers, managers and people in the company amounted to (45) . A questionnaire was used for the purpose of data collection which has been adopted, with the use of statistical methods  via computerized system (spss) for processing data , identifying them and testing the research hypotheses. The research

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2017
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Balance and moderation in dealing with the oppressor and the oppressed in the Sunnah - "Applied models")
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Research Summary

In The Name of Allah Most Gracious Most Merciful

The word injustice and its derivatives were repeated in the Holy Qur’an in several places, approximately (154) times. This is due to the severity of its danger, and that the most dangerous thing that our Islamic nation suffers from in our time is; It is injustice in all its forms and types, so we should all have an honest review of the sincere change in the right direction, and uncover cases of injustice and explain their causes and causes, and work to treat them and rid the wrongdoers of their injustice, and help them to correct their condition. To reveal their grievances and explain their causes and causes, and work to remedy them, and support them and mi

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The importance of Al-alaq and Al-qalam in education and ethical values
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The research addresses the importance of reading and writing for sura Al-alaq and Al-qalam as they represent the main sources for all the sciences as well as ethical values. The researcher seeks to define the educational and ethical values in these two texts which related to reading and writing. To do this, the author went through different relevant literature to show the similarities and related points between them, she also shows the significant of reading and writing and the learning and teaching worth to be consider. The result revealed that the both texts assert on the educational and ethical values, and the vital role of reading and writing.  

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
((The Impact of Organizational Values on achieve Strategic Success Analytical Research in the Iraq Ministry of Oil ))
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This study aims to determine the impact of organization values as an independent variable across its dimensions (organization management values, organization mission values, relations management values, and environment management values) on achieve the strategic success which is the dependent variable and include its dimensions  (environmental analysis, creative thinking, strategic decision, effective implementation, and leadership capacities). The study is conducted in the Iraq Oil Ministry. It deployed the analytical descriptive approach. It focuses on the study problem enquiries throughout addressing several principal and sub-hypothesizes in regards to cause and effect relationship. To achieve this result

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Need and transgression in Surat (Abs) Semantic grammatical study: Need and transgression in Surat (Abs)
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      The research aims to highlight the significance and composition and the diversity of meanings and the Quranic context in the necessary and transgressive verbs in Surat (Abs).

      This research consists of : a preamble , and two studies . The researcher addressed in the preliminary the importance of the phenomenon of necessity and infringement, the signs of the necessary action , the structure and controls of the act , the methods of infringement , its sections and signs.

      As for the first topic : The researcher addressed the necessary verbs in Surat Abs , an applied study in terms of grammati

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Empowerment and its impact in technical innovation Administrative An analytical study In General Company for electrical Industries
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based search on two variables two main (Administrative empowerment ) and (technical innovation) target detection relationship and influence between the five dimensions (the delegation of authority , personnel training , effective communication, work teams , motivating employees) and
(technical innovation) conducted research in General Company for electrical Industries , and through the sample included the views of managers in the various administrative levels poll
.

And adopted a researcher at a major tool for data collection is questionnaire designed to find, as was the contents of the questionnaire analysis according to the Statistical Information System ( Spss), The (55) to identi

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