تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
This study aims at identifying thinking, its aspects, controls, thinker’s characteristics, and the attempts that followed by Ibrahim’s people. This was achieved under Ibrahim’s story, (peace and blessing be upon him), in the Holy Qur’an. The study used the descriptive method through induction and deduction. The study reached the following results: thinking is an organized reasonable human action, which includes all human life in the fields of science, knowledge, and calling for Allah. It depends on remembering what is already in the memory and it should be subjected by revelation and Islamic legislation. The study illustrated that the most important thinking controls are monotheism, piety, Islamic legislation, the Holy Qur’an,
... Show MoreThe present study aims at finding out the (effect of the Caroll’s pattern on the second intermediate class pupils' achievement in geography)
The partial experimental design of two groups, experimental and control, with pre-post tests is used. The sample is represented in (74) female pupils. The sample is divided into two groups (38) experimental group and (36) control one. The sample is selected from first intermediate class pupils ( Am Salama Secondary School for girls) \ Baghdad\ Al-karkh-1, for academic year 2015-2016.
The researcher has equalized the two groups in several variables: the previous achievement tests, intelligence, age in months, the scor
... Show MoreIn the era of the digital economy, public organizations need to consolidation the capabilities of entrepreneurial alertness to reduce the risks of sudden transformations and changes, and to find effective mechanisms to discover and invest in environmental opportunities proactively, as this concern has become a knowledge gap in public sector institutions, the current research aims to identify the role of digital competence in influencing on entrepreneurial alertness in the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), the descriptive analytical approach was used as a research method to describe and analyze the main research variables. digital competence as an explanatory variable includes three dimensions: digital infrastructure, digital integration, and d
... Show MoreObjectives: The study aims to assess the school refusal behavior of first class pupils at primary schools and identifying the relationship between the school refusal behavior and some of socio-demographic characteristics for the pupils.
Methodology: A descriptive-analytic study was initiated from November 1st, 2012 to April 1st, 2013. A random sample of 411 students is selected from a probability stratified sample of 17 primary schools for both sexes in 4 sectors in Baghdad Al-Rasafa and Al-Karkh districts which are selected randomly from first class of primary school. A Self administrative questionnaire (Parents' Version) which constructed by the rese
... Show More
The Search stressed on the importance of the role of property tax as a tributaries of the state budget that depend on it to cover the side of public expenditures, along with the rest of the other types of taxes through a review of the tax framework and tax proceeds and stand on the research problem and its effects, according to the following logic questions : -
- What is the contribution of property tax in the overall tax revenue?
- Are there any certain problems in collection of property tax?
3. What are the factors that lead to a negative impact on the outcome of the property tax?
4. How do we strengthen the role of the property tax in the overall tax revenue?
This r
... Show Moreقال احد المربين ( أعطوني طفولة سعيدة ممتلئة وخذوا شباباً ناضجاً سليماً) ويعني بالطفولة السعيدة تلك الطفولة المشبعة بالحب والحنان وتلبية الحاجات المهمة للطفل حيث يتعلم الطفل من احضان العائلة بعض النواهي والاوامر حتى اذا اتسعت دائرة معارفه شملت الرفقة والعصبة حيث يبدأ الطفل بالتحرر شيئاً فشيئأ من الضوابط العائلية وينتقل مركز ولائه واخلاصه من العائلة الى العصبية وكلما تتوسع علاقات الطفل تزداد خبراته وت
... Show MoreTeaching through the system of personal learning, known as (Clare's plan) is amongst the most prominent plans which depend on self-education, as it received worldwide recognition. The plan lets the learner achieve learning by depending on himself after being familiar with the educational goals given to him, then he starts to solve the exercises and the drills accompanying the unit. After that, he checks his achievement by answering the self-evaluation tests. This method offers more opportunities for personal interaction than do the traditional systems, and individual leaning is a methodical expression aims at taking care of the learner and making him the locus of the processes of teaching and learning.
Aims of the study
... Show MorePoetry occupied a prestigious position for the rulers in AlAndalus, especially the state of the sects in which the kings, who
were originally poets, ruled. This is why they made the poets
close to them, and their court was never empty of them, they
even specified a day in which valuable gifts were given to them.
Poems of praise and love were written,
This study tackles the contribution of the environmental audit in achieving the sustainability of the environmental balance in the Sudanese business environment. The study aimed at clarifying the role of environmental auditing in supporting sustainable development, and to recognize the role of environmental audit in urging businesses to abide by environmental protection. It also shows how effective the environmental audit reports are, in providing the reliable data for the concerned authorities, in order to use it in making the decisions that would help in the sustainability of the environmental balance. To achieve the goals of the study, a questionnaire was developed and distributed to the registered chartered accountants in Sud
... Show More