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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 02 2017
Journal Name
المجلة السياسية والدولية
مكانة القوة في المدرك الاستراتيجي الامريكي : دراسة في التأصيل النظري والتوظيف الاستراتيجي
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يعد الربط بين جدلية ما هو كائن وما يجب أن يكون فيما يتعلق بمكانة القوة في المدرك الاستراتيجي الأمريكي وإشكالية توظيفها، من المتلازمات الذهنية الراسخة في التفكير الاستراتيجي الأمريكي، لاسيما بعد أحداث 11 أيلول 2001 وحربي أفغانستان والعراق، والتي كانت من المحفزات الأساسية للبحث عن توظيف بدائل أو وسائل فاعلة تعزز مخرجات الأداء الاستراتيجي الأمريكي بما يصب في المحصلة النهائية في جانب تكتيل القدرات الاستراتيجية

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Role of Woman In Improving Society: The Role of Woman In Improving Society
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Abstract:
One of the most prominent historical stage feature that is well- known
nowadays in the world is democracy issue. This issue gives man the right to
reflect his concept and notions . It,s the world of freedom , human right and
liberation of women. This leads to the principle of equality between women
and men which is put in the top of liberty and Improvement lists .
Improvement can be defined as a group of means and ways that is
used to direct human work to improve their level of life economically and
socially .
This study contains three sections, the first presents the social state of
women in pre-history period . And the second section presents the theory of
improvement as an important social ph

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Principles of war and jihad to protect the environment and civilians in times of war in Islamic Sharia
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Research summary

Islam protects the environment and civilians in peace and war, and in international humanitarian law protection of the environment and civilians in international conflicts only. As for wars and internal conflicts, it is not within the jurisdiction of international humanitarian law. In Islamic law, the principles of protecting the environment and civilians are fixed in all wars and conflicts, whether internal or external, local. or international.

Islam laid down moral principles in war, including:

- Preserving the environment and avoiding corruption in the land by burning trees and killing animals unnecessarily.

- Not to be exposed to non-combatants, including women, boys, the elderly, the disa

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
الرقابة الداخلية وتأثيرها في مخاطر التأمين: بحث تطبيقي في شركة التأمين الوطنية
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Individuals resort to insurance against certain risks, in order to ward off the danger in the event of their occurrence and therefore a sense of security, so they are shifting the burden of risk that they may be subjected in their persons or their property to others by contracting with an insurance company to perform this service. To achieve this it is necessary to pay the premiums and certain amounts to the insurance company, and you are investing for their development to the ability to pay them compensation for the insured in the event of a hazard insured against. Therefore, subject to the insurance business to the supervision and control of the state, albeit to varying degrees from country to country, so as to ensure the achievement o

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Flexible budgeting role in expenditure planning and control In industrial establishments
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The Study aims to show the role of Flexible Budget in planning and control The Factory over head.

The study consists four reaserchs the First introduction for the role of Budget in planning and control The second definition Flexible Badget the Third Factory overhed cost variances Analysis The four conclusions and recommendations.

The factory overhead cost represents great ratio from product cost so the management must planning and control on cost Through the year by the Budget of factory over head in the beginning of the year and determind overhead rater.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2023
Journal Name
Kufa Journal Of Arts
The Figurative Metaphor in the Discourse of Enlightenment of Hashem Salih in the Light of Cognitive Linguistics
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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The problem of elevating the status of values in scienceStudy in economic thought and macro analysis
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ان من اهم القضايا التي تثيرها المعرفة البشرية في تجلياتها، وتعبيراتها المفاهيمية، تكمن في مدى تأصلها وانتمائها الى البنى والتشكيلات الموضوعية (في مستوياتها التاريخية) التي تسعى لتفسيرها وادراكها ومضاهاتها. فالينبوع الذي يغرف منه الفكر مادته هو الكيان الاجتماعي المتموضع خارج الوعي والايدولوجيا.

ان قدرة الوعي على ادراك الواقع الموضوعي بخصائصه العامة يشكل الشرط  الضروري لاكتساب الوعي ل

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Risk Analysis in Group Life Insurance: An Applied Research in the General Iraqi Insurance Company
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Insurance actions has become a task of the vital foundations on    which the international economy depends, where its presence helped in the development of economic resources in which human resource is considered the most important of these resources. Insurance companies play the biggest role in protecting this resource and minimizing the impact of the dangers that verify this condition.Human has worked hard to get rid of the dangers and its harm, and to devise many ways to prevent them. A risk management is considered within human’s creations in order to create a society with fewer negative risks impacts.

                On this basis, th

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Staff Nurses’ performance at Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City
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Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the performance of staff nurses at primary health care centers in Baghdad city and to compare them with their demographic characteristics of age, gender and education.
Methodology: A descriptive design was carried out at Baghdad City’s primary health care centers from January 2nd 2019 to May 1st 2020. An instrument was developed for the purpose of the study. A non-probability, multi-stage purposive sample of (52) staff nurses was recruited from nurses working at primary health care centers in Baghdad City. The instrument is used to evaluate staff nurses’ performance which includes (62) items. These items are divided to (13) main domains related to evaluation of work quantity, work quality,

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Reflection of marketing deception in organizational reputation / applied research in Baghdad pharmacies
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The research aims to provide an integrated knowledge framework for the two basic research topics of (marketing deception, organizational reputation), their main dimensions, and framing the knowledge within them in a serious attempt to provide appropriate answers to the questions of the research problem by diagnosing the nature of the relationship between the components of marketing deception to identify the elements and how to activate it via reputable organizational components. The research was based on the analytical survey method. The research sample targeted (364) pharmacies within the capital Baghdad exclusively, the main tool of the research was the questionnaire, as well as the design of models prepared fo

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