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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
The phenomenon of building the act of the actor and the effect in the Quranic readings                          (Structural and semantic study)
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After this systematic presentation of the phenomenon of rotation of formulas, ie the construction of the verb and the verb, and the narrated narratives therein differed among the readers, it became clear to us how the difference was clear between reading and the other, and how readers have varied in their readings of the verb, As we have noted through our modest research that the phenomenon of building the verb for the actor and the effect have included the act of both past and present tense, and not limited to a specific time, and this difference in reading was not limited to a particular environment, but beyond To more than one environment This is evidenced by the readings of various readers from the environment of Kufa, Basra, Mecca,

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الحركات الحركات الاسلامية وأثرها في الأستقرار السياسي في لبنان (انموذج حزب الله)
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Characterized the study of Islamic movements in Lebanon, as other studies in the Arab world by being the study of the subject in a different and distinct field on more than one level, environment in which they were composed of components very sectarian and confessional diversity

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of tax exemption in attracting foreign investment and the possibility of activation in the Iraqi economy
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The tax exemption, whether wholly or partially, and for an unlimited duration of the investment or for a limited period of few years, is one of the encouraging things to the flow of foreign capital. And if necessary, impose tax on the profits of the invested capital, the promotion requires that not be discriminatory taxes or payments in the amount of money with the need to avoid double taxation. The tax exemption is granted by the government and the feature according to the law of a natural person or legal entity seeking from the government purports to achieve a set of political goals, economic and  social development. The reduction of taxes or grants partial exemption is one of the factors that encourage attract of direct foreign i

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of accountability measures in enhancing the results of the federal budget in government spending units
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The role and procedures for accountability in the spending units significant impact in enhancing the results of the budget it is found by studying and comparing the results of the implementation of the budget for the research sample for a period of two years to repeat the same deviations and irregularities of Guanyin, regulations and instructions that have occurred in implementation results and two consecutive Kaltjaoz customizations and low rates of implementation and the lack of exchange of allocations Finance despite the presence budget note that such remarks are always indicate in regulatory reports, but these observations repeated Bostmr in the results of the implementation of the budget. Which clearly reflects the absence of the ro

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jan 27 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Use the target costing in Decrease costing a practical company far AL-Amal Industries
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The Target costing is an important modern techniques strategic managerial accounting.which is been shown active adoption to changes in contemporary business environments Inaddition,they had been adopted by the units as aresult of the growth in the strategic approach in the man agement..the goal of using target costing is to build and strengthen competitive abilities of economic units thvough introducing appropriate ways to decrease cost and improving quality of product The hypothesis reflects interest in achieving the goal of the research,ie.research question,The hypothesis use target costing to assist economic units to decrease cost and in the manner that leads to competitive advantages while surviving and flourishing in current busines

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
الرقابة الداخلية وتأثيرها في مخاطر التأمين: بحث تطبيقي في شركة التأمين الوطنية
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Individuals resort to insurance against certain risks, in order to ward off the danger in the event of their occurrence and therefore a sense of security, so they are shifting the burden of risk that they may be subjected in their persons or their property to others by contracting with an insurance company to perform this service. To achieve this it is necessary to pay the premiums and certain amounts to the insurance company, and you are investing for their development to the ability to pay them compensation for the insured in the event of a hazard insured against. Therefore, subject to the insurance business to the supervision and control of the state, albeit to varying degrees from country to country, so as to ensure the achievement o

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Effect of Using tow Methods of Pronounced and written Feed Back in Academic acquisition of students of technical medicine institute in philosophy curriculum
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The world faces, in the last years of the last century and the beginning
of the current century i.e. the 21st century, a great expansion and a large
openness on new worlds in studies differ in their development, detection of
thinking methods and practice of mental processes.
The recent studies have proved an increase in the scientific
achievement among students through the presence of new techniques one of
which is Landa Organizing and Exploring Model concerning Physiology that
deals with various body organs.
This research aims at identifying the effectiveness of Landa Model on
the achievement of the Technical Medicine Institute students in Physiology so
as to be sure of the following nil hypothesis: there i

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
بغداد بغداد في كتب المؤرخين في القرن السابع الهجري ابن الأثير أنموذجاً
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يعد القرن السابع الهجري /الثالث عشر ميلادي من أسوأ القرون التي عصفت بتاريخ أمتنا، وتمثل ذلك بالغزو الصليبي الذي كان في أوجه ومن ثم الغزو المغولي الهمجي الذي انهال على الأمة كما الجراد، أضيف لذلك ما كانت عليه الأحوال الداخلية من نزاعات بين الملوك والسلاطين، ورغم كل ذلك استطاع ثلة من العلماء الأكابر أن يدنوا التاريخ ويسطروه ليبقى محفوظاً للأجيال اللاحقة وصوناً لتراث الأمة العريق.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
Employment of Folk Games and Tales in Developing the Skills of Spontaneous Acting in Kindergartens
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Some may think that the games, especially the folk games, are just a means of entertainment and fun and children may resort to them to alleviate the tension they are experiencing at home or school, but the truth is that they carry values and meanings that can be invested in education because they contribute to the development of the personality of the child and enhance self- confidence. The objective of the research is to learn how to use folk games to develop children's acting and   performance skills in the   kindergartens.

The research included a theoretical introduction of three sections: the first section: education through play. The second section: the folk tale and the development of imagination and the

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Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Sep 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Strategic planning of taxes, and its effect in the investment: Applied research in Taxes General Board
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The current research seek to known the strategic planning for the taxes and its important , and its effect upon the investment , and this research was be in the general board of taxes, and the economical directorate of the ministry of finance , therefore this research started from the problem below: 

  • What level of the important and type of the research changeable of the research ( the strategic planning for the taxes and investment) in the research organization ?
  • Is there any relation of the join and effect of the changeable of the research (the strategic planning for the taxes and investment)in the research organization ?

Therefore this research depended a hypotheti

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