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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Slums and its implication on security in Baghdad
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The research team seeks to study the phenomena of random housing in Iraqi society in general and Baghdad city in particular by standing on the causes behind this phenomena and its relation with security situation in Baghdad. The researchers adopted a theoretical and practical framework. The main objective is to diagnose the risks caused by the escalation of slums in Baghdad city. 

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 08 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The War Importance of Basra in the Islamic Conquests in the Rightly Guided Caliphs Period
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There are many reasons made Basra a good defense, first of all was the
establishment of the famous Arab tribes, like Bakir bn. Wail and Tamim. Besides there were
A lot the armed forces. In addition to that the strategic place of Basra. All these reasons
played a good part when the war broke out.
The Arabic tribes played a good part in the war to engaged Persians, and prevent
them from sending any helps to their armies against the Kufain who were fighting Persians in
the North of Iraq. While the Basrain army aiming to Conquer the south of Iraq.
Basra become the first strategic place for the Islamic movement of the conquers.
Latter on Kufa and Bahrain were the second and third.
The Muslims guranted the pupils of

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Transitional justice in light of the change in the Arab region
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Many changes took place in a number of Arab countries, most of which ended with the change of the ruling leadership and a new coming. The same change brought about the hopes of the people to turn the page of the past into a democracy through which to overcome the grievances of previous years and achieve justice in all its aspects. The same new grievances have been added to that precedent and justice has not yet been achieved. Here we try to address the justice that is applied in the stages of change or transitional stages, which have been called, ie transitional justice, which has mechanisms and conditions of different application between countries, each of which the conditions applied in them and through a review of these mechanisms bet

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Prevalence of Diabetes Mellitus in Hepatitis C Patients in Wazirabad Tehsil of Gujranwala District of Pakistan: hepatitis C in Diabetic patients
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Hepatitis, a condition of liver’s inflammation that can be self-limiting or, in certain chances, it may lead to liver cancer, fibrosis or cirrhosis. Hepatitis viruses mainly cause hepatitis in the world. People with hepatitis C have predominant chances to develop diabetes as HCV virus participates in causing type 2 diabetes. HCV virus causes pathogenesis in two ways: it either directly destroys the β cells of pancreas or contributes to the specific autoimmunity of β cells. The present cross sectional study was done in Wazirabad Tahsil of Gujranwala District to analyze the percentage of patients suffering from hepatitis C who had the risk of diabetes mellitus. For this research work, demographic information and data about any other me

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The importance of cash flow statement in reducing credit risk and liquidity: بحث تطبيقي في مصرف الرشيد
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Banks face different types of banking risks that limit the performance of its functions and achieve its objectives, including the financial risk that is based on current research into two types including a credit and liquidity risks. And established credit risk due to the possibility of delaying the borrowers to fulfill their obligations to the bank when due or non-payments on according to the terms agreed upon, while liquidity risk arises as a result of the inability of the bank to fund the financial needs, any inability to provide cash to pay its obligations short on credit without achieving tangible loss or the inability to employ the funds properly and show the liquidity risk in the event of inadequate cash inflows to the bank for an

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Jun 08 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
New Methods and Old Issues: Theoretical and Methodological Approaches to Social Network Sites in the Arab Region
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This paper critically looks at the studies that investigated the Social Network Sites in the Arab region asking whether they made a practical addition to the field of information and communication sciences or not. The study tried to lift the ambiguity of the variety of names, as well as the most important theoretical and methodological approaches used by these studies highlighting its scientific limitations. The research discussed the most important concepts used by these studies such as Interactivity, Citizen Journalism, Public Sphere, and Social Capital and showed the problems of using them because each concept comes out of a specific view to these websites. The importation of these concepts from a cultural and social context to an Ara

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Factors Influencing the Establishment of Investment Portfolios ((Analytical Research in a number of Private Banks in Baghdad))
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       The investment portfolio of financial instruments & banking relatively new in the banking sector & the world of investment &capital markets in spite of its importance & its advantages in terms of the nature of the diversity of investment instruments as well as reduce the risk of investment & its contribution to the revitalization of the banks & the financial market , economic,  &characterized by developments accelerated under information & communications technology , as is the portfolio tool vehicle of investment tools that provide for people who want to invest & they can not manag

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of tourism in economic growth-outlook for the role of tourism in Iraqi marshes development.
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The tourism activity is one of the pillars on which the economy of any country is based , the importance of the tourism sector is reflected in its potential to become an effective development alternative in many countries, especially Iraq ,this has a direct impact on the national economy as an important source in attracting hard currency and eliminating unemployment. Adding the Iraqi Marshlands to the list of effects makes it contribute to diversification of sources of income and stimulating rest of the economic sectors, the potentials and qualifications possessed by Iraq in the field of tourism and monuments have a significant impact on the state budget if they were exploited optimally. The research aims at identifying the contr

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Crossref (1)
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Organiational challenges and thier effect of organiational rituals
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Administrative leaders conserned to understand the challenges which are faced their organizations and try to assimilate and adapt with the extent that achieves to it efficiency and effective- ess, and standing face to face to faceing any challenge.that threaten it’s existence thro- ugh using modern inputs reached to that level of these  challenges and applied the study on a sample deliberate random from teaching hospitals of the Directorate General for Health Baghdad Karkh, and the Directorate General for Health Baghdad Rusafa and the City of Medicine , The importance of t

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Alienation in Adolescence in J.D. Salinger's The Catcher in the Rye
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Alienation is a feeling that inflicts people especially adolescents due to certain reasons. As they grow up, adolescents tend to face certain psychological disturbances. They somehow feel indifferent to their surroundings and hence it would be quite hard for them to express their notions in the reality world they live in. So they either rebel against society and become aggressive members or they might console themselves in an alienated world that they create in their minds.

   This paper depicts J.D. Salinger's (1919-2010) novel The Catcher in the Rye where its protagonist, Holden Caulfield, is an adolescent who feels there is no linkage or connection with the traits of his society. He is a teenager who

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