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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 11 2022
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
(639هـ) The speech act in the grammatical discourse, a study in the book "Guiding Al-Luma'" by Ibn Al-Khabbaz (639 AH)
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The study of the " Speech act " in grammatical codes reveals great efforts in the study of the elements of linguistic communication contained in their efforts, and is part of the study of the linguistics of heritage, and the research has been designed to identify the verbal act in the blog of Ibn al-Khabaz (guiding the shine) by studying its sections comprehensively; To the spirit of grammatical discourse as well as the combination of the concept of the semantic act already verbal according to Searle, and its response in the form of indirect verbal acts more than direct acts, as well as the pure formulas of the opinions of the violators in the speech of Ibn al-Khabaz other than the proven verbal formulas Approval and approval, the class

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Sustainable leadership and its impact on organizational happiness Analytical research in the General Tourism Authority in Baghdad
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      The current research aims to test the relationship of the impact of sustainable leadership as an independent variable in organizational happiness as a dependent variable, in the departments and divisions of the Tourism Authority, to come up with a set of recommendations that contribute to raising the level of organizational happiness in the authority. And based on the importance of the research topic in the General Authority, and the prominent role that this body plays in society, the researcher adopted the descriptive and analytical approach in carrying out this research, by collecting data from the departments and divisions staff of (160) respondents in an exclusively comprehensive

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Benford’s law to appreciation the risk in financial transactions: Application study in Baghdad University
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The financial fraud considers part of large concept to management and financial corruption, the financial fraud is appeared especially after corporate, that is Emerge agency theory, that is because recognize relationship between the management company and stakeholder, that is through group from constriction in order to block the management to fraud practice, that on the basis was choose another party in order fraud this practice and give opinion on financial statement, that consider basis decision making from stakeholder to basis the report auditor about creditability this is statement that reflect real activity for the company.The Auditor in order to lead work him Full professionalism to must using group from control Techniques, that is

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
حوليات أداب عين شمس
الاعلال في الجزء الثلاثين من القرآن الكريم في كتاب الجدول في إعراب القرآن الكريم
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 14 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Educational value Implied in Secondary School Principals' weekly Speeches at Baghdad
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The research falls in to three sections: the first section has two parts; the first one includes a general description of the research: its   problem, aim, limitations, methodology, and the terminological definition. The second part presents historical background of the weekly school speeches in Iraq and their types. Section Two has two parts: the first is about the principles of writing weekly speeches, their elements, and principals, their conditions. As for the second part, it is about introducing four samples of weekly school speeches distributed as two taken from Al-karkh sector and two taken from Al-rusafa'a sector. The third section: analyzing the content of the sample and giving a short historical background abo

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Role of Benford’s law to appreciation the risk in financial transactions: Application study in Baghdad University
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The financial fraud considers part of large concept to management and financial corruption, the financial fraud is appeared especially after corporate, that is Emerge agency theory, that is because recognize relationship between the management company and stakeholder, that is through group from constriction in order to block the management to fraud practice, that on the basis was choose another party in order fraud this practice and give opinion on financial statement, that consider basis decision making from stakeholder to basis the report auditor about creditability this is statement that reflect real activity for the company.The Auditor in order to lead work him Full professionalism to must using group from control Techniques, that is

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 12 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الاقطاع الإقطاع في انكَلترا في القرن الحادي عشر
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All aspects of life are controlled directly or indirectly by the church. The Crusades has the essential role in the weakness of feudalism because a lot of slaves escaped to participate in these wars and the Masters were unable to prevent them since the church blessed these Wars and the Participants

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Contradictions in experience of Criticism in Andalus Poetry
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Metaphor has been occupied first place among eloquent methods to build metaphors;
poetry with the latter becomes senseless thing. Metaphor is necessary part of energy that
sustains the poetry. Sentence of metaphor regarded more eloquent than the reality since it
does not conduct directly to the meaning , but rather get to it indirectly. Metaphor is
considered one of the most tools for the poet since it is a means of expression about his
sensation and feelings . Andalus paid concerns over metaphors as that being incited by their
country beauty and nature. The poet might resort to contradiction as to picture contraries
within himself.
Through pictures of contradictions depicted by the poets , it has explained that t

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Dictionaries in the News.. In the light of Semiotic analysis,
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We refer in this research into linguistic binaries, try rounding of simiaei news analysis. It is known that there are branches of Linguistics called social Linguistics, divided into communicative Linguistics and media. Perhaps the best justification for the inclusion of a new curriculum in media studies is a semiotic analysis of the news. I›ve turned the speech, language and communication studies in relation to different disciplines, many research projects, and returned only old curriculum, speed shift in thought, proportional to the revolution in information and communication technology, for reality imposed on the entire world, researchers are the first affected by this enormous humanitarian Almanza. Alsimiaaeon still shy away from an

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Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Oct 14 2018
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
الجواري في التاريخ ودورها في الحياة الأدبية والثقافية
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The odalisque ( chambermaid) is every  owned woman (possessed ). Her master has owned her either by buying her from the slavers who were travelling around in the lands to buy the odalisques and then selling them or they are captives of war.

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