تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Abstract:
The issues related to foreign trade is a broad field for discussions and captures the interest of economists for their contribution to the process of economic development in the economies of the countries, especially developing ones. The imports of goods and services in foreign trade constitute an important part of the local by which the economy gets goods and services that the economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Further, the demand function of imports occupied a good deal of the attention of researchers in the field of international economics for which agricultural imports constitute an important part. The reason for the interest in the subject is due to its im
... Show MoreThe research aims to know the influence of the intellectual capital on the internal control system in a sample of General Inspection Offices in Iraq. The research includes a sample of individuals who are working in these offices total sample (46) individuals distributed according to functional levels (General Inspector, Deputy Inspector General, and Director) , The data and information were collected by using questionnaire, which is done for this purpose, as well as personal interviews in order to reach to the results that achieve the aim of this research , Two hypotheses were formed , the first hypothesis consists of (4) secondary hypothesis , All these hypotheses were tested by using statistical tools such as (percentages, freq
... Show Moreيُمثل التوسع الحضري أحد أبرز التحولات الديموغرافية العالمية. وفي العراق، يكتسب هذا التحول بُعداً استثنائياً نتيجة للتغيرات السياسية، والأمنية، والاقتصادية الجذرية الممتدة من عام 1997 وحتى 2025، والتي أفرزت تبايناً مكانياً حاداً في مسارات النمو السكاني بين المراكز الحضرية. استندت هذه الدراسة إلى تحليل بيانات رسمية لـ 12 مركزاً حضرياً رئيسياً. وكشفت النتائج عن فجوة ديموغرافية واسعة؛ إذ برزت مدن إقليم كردستان (ال
... Show MoreThe capital in the bank is the important element in establishing it, because it maintains the banking sector in the event of exposure to losses or risks In addition to contributing to the provision of liquidity And protection of depositors' money from potential and unexpected losses. There is also a relationship between the prices of shares and the indicators of the durability of the capital owned, considering that the shares are the components of the bank capital The study limited the indicators of capital to assets and capital to deposits, capital to loans and financial investments Where the most important conclusions are the damage to the detriment of shareholders in contrast to the depositors in the case of increasing the propo
... Show MoreThe study focuses on the problem that Iraq is approaching an increasing rate of literacy;the available data refers to a rate of (18% -19%). In addition to the fact that the generalcurrent role of the programs directed to literacy is not actually effective enough to limit the expansion of this rate.
The importance of this study highlights the fact that the Iraqi universities are an important tributary among the tributaries of human development, especially in spreading the education of the voluntary work in literacy field and confirming the connection between the students and their society and their role in solving one of the prominent challenges that face the development, i.e., literacy.
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... Show MoreIn accounting studies, more than one method is used to measure income and balance sheets elements. One of these methods is called the fair value, which use to determine the assets and liabilities ad it includes the benefits or self-satisfaction ability. This paper aims to focus on the importance of fair value as a basis of accounting measurement and its effects to achieve the relevant characteristics by using the equation is used by (Kythreotis) in his research, And Also , Editing this equation depending on the financial data and information of Iraqi Banks as a case.
Survival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete
... Show MoreThe aim of this study is to highlight the relationship between competitive intelligence and Entrepreneurial Performance by centralizing the strategic vigilance of a sample of civil faculties in Baghdad. The sample of the study was targeted at 10 Iraqi civil colleges, which consisted of (133) members of the faculty council of the faculties, the search data was collected using the questionnaire form as the main research tool. The results showed that the correlation and influence of competitive intelligence and strategic vigilance in the Entrepreneurial Performance, as well as the role of strategic vigilance as an intermediate variable between competitive intelligence and Entrepreneurial Performance.
The aim of the research is to measure the efficiency of the companies in the industrial sector listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange , by directing these companies to their resources (inputs) towards achieving the greatest possible returns (outputs) or reduce those resources while maintaining the level of returns to achieve the efficiency of these companies, therefore, in order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was used (Demerjian.et.al) model to measure the efficiency of companies and the factors influencing them. The researchers had got a number of conclusions , in which the most important of them is that 66.6% of the companies in the research sample do no
... Show MoreThis study estimated seven heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb, Ni, Cd, Cr) in water (dissolved and particulate phase), sediments and some aquatic organisms including two species from aquatic plants (Ceratophyllum demersum&Phragmites australis); one species of clam (Psedontopeses euphratics) and two species from fish (Oreochromis aureus& Leuciscus vorax)in four sites within Mashroo AL- Musayyib channel project/ branch of Euphrates river, Babylon , medial of Iraq . This aims to show the concentration of these elements, their fate and the mechanisms of their transmission through the food chain in this lotic aquatic system ; also in addition to examining some physicochemical properties of ri
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