تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
The research aims at clarifying the relationship between innovative marketing skills and broad recommendation as a vital and important issue for organizations in general and service organizations in particular to demonstrate how innovative marketing skills contribute to broad adoption and to determine the relationship between interdependence and the impact of innovative marketing skills on the broad recommendation. Some questions are posed by the research problem. Is there a clear awareness among individuals in the company about the concept of marketing marketing skills and how do innovative marketing skills affect the broad recommendation of the surveyed company? How innovative marketing skills relate to the broad recommendation
... Show MoreMost studies indicated that the values of atmospheric variables have changed from their general rates due to pollution or global warming etc. Hence, the research indicates the changes of direct solar radiation values over a whole century i.e. from 1900 to 2000 depending on registered data for four cities, namely (Mosul - Baghdad - Rutba - Basra. Moreover, attemptsto correlate the direct solar radiation with the temperature values have been recorded over that period. The results showed that there is a decreasing pattern of radiation quantities over time throughout the study period, where the value of direct radiation over the city of Baghdad 5550 w/m2 was recorded in the year 1900, but this ratio decreased cle
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Sözlü Türk halk edebiyatı ürünleri içinde önemli yere sahip olan türlerden biri de atasözleridir. Atasözleri, nesilden nesile halk ağzında dolaşan, kimin söylediği bilinmeyen, birtakım gerçekleri kısa ve öz bir şekilde ifade eden sözlerdir. Türk atasözleri Orhun Abideleri’nde ilk kez karşımıza çıkmakla birlikte, Uygur dönemi yazıtlarında ve özellikle Dîvânü Lûgati’t Türk’te geniş yer bulmuştur. Dilin anlatım ve kullanım imkânlarını geliştiren atasözlerine, dünyanın bütün dillerinde rastlanabilir. Bunun için, söyleyişte güzel, anlatımda güçlü, kavramda önemli unsurlar içeren kalıplaşmış sözler halinde bulunurlar. Bu çalı
... Show MoreSemi-parametric models analysis is one of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to give an efficient model estimation. The problem when the response variable has one of two values either 0 ( no response) or one – with response which is called the logistic regression model.
We compare two methods Bayesian and . Then the results were compared using MSe criteria.
A simulation had been used to study the empirical behavior for the Logistic model , with different sample sizes and variances. The results using represent that the Bayesian method is better than the at small samples sizes.
... Show MoreThe changes that have occurred in the business environment and scientific and technological progress, as well as the complexity of administrative problems resulting from its practice of various activities, have led to an increase in the responsibilities entrusted to it, and for the purpose of achieving its strategic objectives, which has made the pillars of corporate governance an inevitable matter required by the nature of modern scientific management of the governorate, the success that companies seek is based on the fertile environment and the dialectical relationship between the individual and the company, and to achieve this success there must be a compatible and harmonious audit environment between the internal and external
... Show MoreIn light of this, attention should be paid to tax reform as part of a comprehensive economic reform program. Therefore, the research started from the problem of the weak efficiency of the tax reform process in the General Authority for Taxation, as well as the need to know the addition of new taxes or increase taxes.The research aims study the relative importance of each disabled person, whether organizational, human, financial, legislative or technical. The research led to a number of conclusions, the most important of which were that the financial obstacles occupy the highest importance of the other obstacles and for the success of the tax reform, the material resources must be provided in order to provide the n
... Show MoreThe study aims at identifying the reasons of weakness in the reading and writing of the primary schools' pupils at Baghdad governate in Iraq from the educational supervisors' point of view.
The community research contained the educational supervisors of Baghdad governate for the academic year 2011\2012, consisting of a total number of (344), of which (175) were males and (169) were females, where as the sample of the research consisted of (100) educational supervisors.
The researcher made up a questionnaire which is consisted of (78) items, distributed over different fields ( the curriculum and the book, methods of teaching, educational technology
... Show MoreThis research aims to clarify the role of Information Technology Competency (ITC) with dimensions' (IT Usage, IT Knowledge, and IT Operations) as an independent variable in the activation of Human Resources Management Practices (HRM Practices) as a dependent variable with dimensions' (Training and Development, Recruitment, Job Design, and Performance appraisal). Based on this, the correlation and effect relationships between the independent and dependent variables are determined by formulating two main hypotheses. There are a significant relationship and effect of IT competency with HRM practices within the dimensions. Furthermore, the scope and population of this research are the Informatics and Communications P
... Show MoreThe research sought to demonstrate the effectiveness of monetary policy in banking stability by measuring the impact of monetary policy in the composite index of banking stability in Iraq for the period 2010/2017, as the stability of the financial system is one of the main objectives that the Central Bank is keen to achieve along with other objectives to ensure the performance Effective for all economic units, this is what prompted the central banks to give more attention in ensuring the safety, durability and stability of their financial systems, and the increasing interest by the Central Bank of Iraq in the subject of financial stability stems from its responsibility in ensuring a sound and stable financial system. Maintain it and mini
... Show MoreThe research aims at identifying the relationship between the process of managing intellectual knowledge and its impact on the development and sustainability of the Iraqi insurance sector by conducting an analysis of the types of intellectual knowledge owned by Iraqi insurance companies and the amount of revenues generated from each type of services provided to customers. &
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