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نمذجة السلاسل الزمنية التي تنتجها اجهزة الاحصاء الدولية وانتاج قيم تنبؤية لمتخذ القرار حالة دراسية : التنبؤ بالمساحة المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة (2015-2020
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تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
اسباب تدني مستوى القراءة والكتابة في المدارس الابتدائية من وجهة نظر المشرفين والمشرفات التربويين في محافظة بغداد في العراق .
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The study aims at identifying the reasons of weakness in the reading and writing of the primary schools' pupils at Baghdad governate in Iraq from the educational supervisors' point of view.

The community research contained the educational supervisors of Baghdad governate for the academic year 2011\2012, consisting of a total number of (344), of which (175) were males and (169) were females, where as the sample of the research consisted of (100) educational supervisors.

The researcher made up a questionnaire which is consisted of (78) items, distributed over different fields ( the curriculum and the book, methods of teaching, educational technology

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The obstacles affecting the tax reform in Iraq: Applied research in the General Authority for Taxation
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    In light of this, attention should be paid to tax reform as part of a comprehensive economic reform program. Therefore, the research started from the problem of the weak efficiency of the tax reform process in the General Authority for Taxation, as well as the need to know the addition of new taxes or increase taxes.The research aims study the relative importance of each disabled person, whether organizational, human, financial, legislative or technical. The research led to a number of conclusions, the most important of which were that the financial obstacles occupy the highest importance of the other obstacles and for the success of the tax reform, the material resources must be provided in order to provide the n

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Employing NADH Dehydrogenase Subunit 1 in the Determination of Echinococcus granulosus Strain in Sheep, Cattle and Human in Thi-Qar Province, Iraq
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Echinococcosis is a zoonotic disease caused by the larval stage of the tapeworm Echinococcus granulosus. This disease is an important public health and a significant economic issue in Iraq, where the lungs and livers are the popular places of infection. The aim of the current study focused on using the molecular techniques in the detection of an E. granulosus strain that causes cystic echinococcosis to human, sheep and cattle in Thi-Qar province, Iraq. In the current study, thirty isolates of E. granulosus were collected from 10 human hydatid cysts through surgery done at Al-Hussein Imam Teaching Hospital in Thi-Qar province and 10 sheep with 10 cattle hydatid cysts were obtained from the slaughterhouse in Thi-

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Scopus (9)
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of monetary policy in the aggregate indicator of banking stability in Iraq: An applied research in the Central Bank of Iraq for the period (2010 - 2017)
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The research sought to demonstrate the effectiveness of monetary policy in banking stability by measuring the impact of monetary policy in the composite index of banking stability in Iraq for the period 2010/2017, as the stability of the financial system is one of the main objectives that the Central Bank is keen to achieve along with other objectives to ensure the performance Effective for all economic units, this is what prompted the central banks to give more attention in ensuring the safety, durability and stability of their financial systems, and the increasing interest by the Central Bank of Iraq in the subject of financial stability stems from its responsibility in ensuring a sound and stable financial system. Maintain it and mini

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposal of Using Principle of Maximizing Entropy of Generalized Gamma Distribution to Estimate the Survival probabilities of the
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Abstract

In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of  Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on t

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Crossref
Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposal of Using Principle of Maximizing Entropy of Generalized Gamma Distribution to Estimate the Survival probabilities of the Population in Iraq
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In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on the basis of the method of the Cen

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Nickel and Cobalt in Cosmetic Products Marketed in Iraq Using Spectrophotometric and Microfluidic Paper-based Analytical Device (µPADs) Platform
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Two quantitative, environment-friendly and easily monitored assays for Ni (II) and Co (III) ions analysis in different lipstick samples collected from 500-Iraqi dinars stores located in Baghdad were introduced. The study was based on the reaction of nickel (II) ions with dimethylglyoxime (DMG) reagent and the reaction of cobalt (III) ions with 1-nitroso-2-naphthol (NN) reagent to produce colored products. The color change was measured by spectrophotometric method at 565 nm and 430 nm for Ni and Co, respectively, with linear calibration graphs in the concentration range 0.25-100 mg L-1 (Ni) and 0.5-100 mg L-1 (Co) and LOD and LOQ of 0.11 mg L-1 and 0.36 mg L-1 (Ni), and 0.15 mg L-1 an

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Scopus (6)
Crossref (4)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The method of ABC and it, s roules in the Determining the cost of the Project constraction sector
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Abstract

The basic orientation of the research is an attempting to apply the cost determining method according in the contract sector projects for Al- Iraq ceneral company, that this subject has a big value according to its modernity and  its influence on the future  and the eaning of the company.

The research aims to find out the effect of the method for determining cost based on the activity in determining the cost of the construction sector projects.The research was conducted in Iraq General Company for the implementation of irrigation projects. Bani search on three assumptions, the first is (that the application of the method for determining the cost on the basis of

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Role of the evaluation process of the staff in determining the training programs Field research in the Office of the Inspector General of the Ministry of Health / Iraq
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         The objective of this research is to determine the relationship between the performance evaluation process and the training programs for the employees, to identify the extent of the organization's commitment to perform the performance evaluation process for its employees and to use the results of this process in determining the appropriate training programs. Performance evaluation, functional analysis, evaluation method used, dependent variable (training programs) and its dimensions, type of programs, program objectives, program curriculum, And the application of the field research methodology and the questionnaire, which included 146 individuals to know their views and analyz

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 18 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Watching Cultural Programs in Satellites Channels tv and Its relation to the actual reading of the book
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The research is based on an important subject according to the researchers' estimations. It is the disclosure of the nature of the relationship between Watching to cultural programs in satellite channels and the book's vision of the intellectual, and the pursuit of purchasing and acquiring it It is a scientific addition to the scientific research media because it deals in the field of new about the nature of the relationship between satellite programs and writers, and it provides a scientific development on the importance of satellite channels in the promotion of the book and sales of intellectual elite. The study examined the audience of the recipients of literature for cultural programs, the nature of the public, characteristic

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