تنفذ أجهزة اإلحصاء الدولية ومنها الجهاز المركزي لإلحصاء في العراقإحدى أجهزة وزارة التخطيط، تقوم بإجراء مسوح سنوية ودورية لإنتاج مؤشرات تقييم وتقويم أنشطة القطاعات الاقتصادية المختلفة. يتيح هذا الكم الهائل من البيانات بشكل سلسل زمني لهذه الأجهزة إنتاج مؤشرات جديدة، بما في ذلك القيم التنبؤية لمؤشرات رئيسية تستخدم في إعداد الخطط طويلة وقصيرة المدى. في عام 2015، قامت مديرية الإحصاء الزراعي في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء ببناء منظومة زمنية لمؤشرات الإحصاء الزراعي، وهذه خطوة أولى نحو بناء نماذج تنبؤية لهذه المؤشرات تساعدنا على رؤية مستقبلية. يهدف البحث إلى تحديد أفضل نموذج إحصائي للاستخدام في تنبؤ المساحات المزروعة لمحصول الذرة الصفراء في العراق للفترة 2015-2020 باستخدام بيانات السلسلة الزمنية للأعوام 1949-2014، بطول فترة 65 سنة. تم تطبيق أسلوب بوكس-جنكينز، وأظهرت النتائج أن النموذج الأنسب هو نموذج ARIMA (0,1,2) مقارنة بعدة نماذج أخرى باستخدام معايير إحصائية مختلفة لاختيار النموذج المناسب. توصي الدراسة وزارة الزراعة ووزارة التجارة بالاعتماد على القيم التنبؤية في إعداد الخطط الزراعية والتسويقية، وتوصي العاملين في الجهاز المركزي للإحصاء باعتماد هذا النموذج في تنبؤ مساحات المحاصيل واعتماد منهجية البحث في بناء نماذج تنبؤية لمؤشرات منظومة السلسلة الزمنية للإحصاءات الزراعية الأخرى.
Biodiversity is one of the important biological factors in determining water quality and maintaining the
ecological balance. In this study, there are 223 species of phytoplankton were identified, and they are as
follows: 88 species of Bacillariophyta and were at 44%,70 species of Chlorophyta and they were at 29 %, 39
species of Cyanophyta and they were at 16 %, 12 species of Euglenozoa and they were at 4 %, four species of
Miozoa and they were at 3 %, and, Phylum Charophyta and Ochrophyta were only eight and two species,
respectively and both of them were at 2%. The common phytoplankton recorded in the sites studied
include Nitzschia palea, Scenedesmus quadricauda, Oscillatoria princeps, and Peridinium
التوجهات الفكرية الجديدة لانظمة دول العالم الثالث في ظل النظام العالمي الجديد : العراق نموذجاً
The State company for vegetable oils industry one of the most dynamic
companies in the Iraqi economy and is one of the companies manufacturing(food) that takes astrategic dimension and production within the concept of food security, this as well as to reduce dependence on imports and operation of national manpower.This study aims to describe the performance of the State company for vegetable oils industry for the period (2003-2007) which was characterized by economic and security instability of the country and give an accurate picture of their efficiency and their capacity to produce during this Period.
Abstract
The term public budget defects became nowadays a chronic, economical phenomenon, almost all the countries weather advanced or development country suffered from it, despite the different visions to economic schools of a thought to accept or reject the deficit in public budget but the prevailed opinion that is needed to rule the role of the state by reducing the public spending which led to continuous deficits in public budget and the consequent upon increase in government borrowing, increase taxes on income and wealth, thus weakening the in contrive for private investment which contributed to the increase of in flationary stagnation, it became a duty to state covered by the lack of financial sources
... Show MoreThe time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound
The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.
Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used
... Show MoreOne of the globalization results is (VAT) , so it is important to consider its results and impact on the tax system.
The Iraqi economy having wittnisd an acute transition period , still in need for a better care in aim to back it, especialy from the tax system.
The research is concerned with the (VAT) and its details –And for five chapters all the problomes connect are displayed .But yet the new system does not comply with the modern development and this is one of the defects of (VAT) in Iraq.
The history of (VAT)was also studied mentiorned and studied.
As a conclusion (VAT) is one of the m
... Show MoreThis paper deals the prediction of the process of random spatial data of two properties, the first is called Primary variables and the second is called secondary variables , the method that were used in the prediction process for this type of data is technique Co-kriging , the method is usually used when the number of primary variables meant to predict for one of its elements is measured in a particular location a few (because of the cost or difficulty of obtaining them) compare with secondary variable which is the number of elements are available and highly correlated with primary variables, as was the&nbs
... Show Moreعلى الرغم من تطور الدراسات التاريخية الخاصة بالمرأة بوصفها حقل معرفي مستقل بدأ منذ نهاية الستينيات من القرن الماضي .ونجاج الكاتبات والباحثات في العديد من بلدان الشرق الاوسط وشمال افريقيا في إعادة المرأة الى التاريخ، الا ان الكتابة التاريخية في العراق مازالت تعاني من نقص كبير في الموضوعات التي تناولت حياة النساء في الماضي. وما يزال الباحثات والباحثين ينظرون الى التاريخ على انه سردية للمعارك والحروب ويو
... Show MoreThe research aims to present and discuss the accounting bases adopted in accounting for fixed assets in the public sector with an emphasis on its importance in the area of accountability and fixed assets management , based on a realistic problem associated with the use of cash basis accounting in the public sector in Iraq, which are difficult to provide accounting information useful for many users , including the same units and regulatory departments for the purposes of accountability and management of those assets. Search tool has been the organization questionnaire, its results show the importance of financial reporting for provide accounting information about fixed assets relate to the units of the public sector in Iraq fo
... Show MoreThe process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel
... Show More